Waba yini umphumela wempi yezomnotho yase-USA neChina?

(Kuphinde kwanyatheliswa kusukela ku-akhawunti esemthethweni ye-Oriental Finance Magazine, nguYan Ansheng, iphini likasihlalo we-Hong Kong Journal Media Association.)

Kusukela ngo-2025, impi yezohwebo phakathi kwe-Sino-US iye yanda kakhulu, futhi umdlalo emikhakheni yentela, ubuchwepheshe, kanye nezintambo zezimboni ubonise ukuthambekela kokubhekana okunezinhlangothi eziningi. Izinhlangothi zombili ziqalise ukuxabana okukhulu ezindaweni ezibalulekile njengezimoto ezisebenzisa amandla, izimoto ezintsha zamandla, kanye nezolimo. Ngo-Ephreli 2, 2025, uhulumeni wase-US wamemezela ukuthi uzobeka "intela yokubuyisana" ezimpahleni zaseShayina ezithunyelwa e-United States, ngesilinganiso sentela esingu-34%. Uma sihlanganiswe nentela engu-20% kusukela ngo-2018, izinga lentela eliphelele lifinyelele ku-54%. I-China ayingcono kakhulu. Ngo-Ephreli 4, i-China yethule ngokushesha inqubomgomo yentela yokubuyisana "engu-34% kuya ku-34%", ibeka intela engu-34% kuzo zonke izimpahla ezingenisiwe ezivela e-United States, ezihilela imikhiqizo yezolimo, amandla, izimoto nezinye izinkambu. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, i-China ifake izinhlangano zase-US ezingu-16 ohlwini lokulawula ukuthumela kwamanye amazwe, ivimbela ukuthunyelwa kwezinto ezisetshenziswa kabili kuzo; futhi yafaka izinkampani eziyi-11 ohlwini lwezinhlangano ezingathembekile, ezivimbela ukuthi zihlanganyele emisebenzini yokungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle neChina. Ngaphezu kwalokho, iChina imise iziqu zokuthumela ngaphandle zezinkampani eziyi-6 zase-US zemikhiqizo yezolimo eya eChina, futhi yasebenzisa izilawuli zokuthumela ngaphandle ezintweni ezihlobene nomhlaba ongavamile nezisindayo.

Kusukela emzuliswaneni wakamuva wempi yezohwebo phakathi kwe-Sino-US, singabona ukuthi izinyathelo zokulwa zaseShayina ziya ngokuya ziqina. Ngakho-ke, ubani ozonqoba impi yezomnotho phakathi kwe-Sino-US ekugcineni? Akunzima ukufinyelela esiphethweni ngokubukeza umncintiswano wezomnotho phakathi kwe-Sino-US kusukela ngo-2018.

Impi yezohwebo inamthelela ongakanani e-United States?

Ngo-2018, uhulumeni kaTrump, owayengumongameli wase-US ngaleso sikhathi, waqala impi yezohwebo ngokumelene neChina, eyaba nzima nakakhulu ngesikhathi sombuso kaBiden. Kodwa-ke, eminyakeni eyisikhombisa kamuva, i-United States ayigcinanga nje ngokwehluleka ukufeza imigomo yayo ebilindelwe, kodwa ibhekane nokulahlekelwa okukhulu, izinkinga, futhi yadalula izinqe zayo ezingenalutho. Impi yezohwebo yase-US inomonakalo olinganiselwe eShayina, kodwa umonakalo e-United States uqobo udlule kakhulu okulindelwe ngabaseMelika, okubonakala ngokukhethekile kulezi zici ezilandelayo.

Okokuqala, osopolitiki baseMelika bahlupheke kakhulu ngokwengqondo. Kuyo yonke impi yezohwebo, ukuhweba kwamanye amazwe eShayina kuye kwathuthuka ngokuphelele, futhi kungashiwo ukuthi lapho impi iqhubeka kakhulu, kulapho iba namandla khona. Ngaphandle komthelela wokuqala wempi yezohwebo ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe, inqubomgomo yokuzinzisa ukuhweba kwamanye amazwe yaseShayina idlale indima esikhathini esifushane kakhulu. Ngokuqinisa ukubambisana kanye nokushintshana ngamapulatifomu nezindlela ezifana ne-RCEP, i-Belt and Road Initiative, kanye namazwe e-BRICS, iShayina isheshe yavala igebe lokuncipha kokuhweba ne-United States, futhi ibilokhu ithuthuka yonke indlela, ukuhweba kwamanye amazwe kuqhubeka nokukhula unyaka nonyaka. Idatha esemthethweni ikhombisa ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe eShayina kuzofinyelela ku-25 trillion yuan ngo-2024, futhi insalela yokuhweba kwayo izodlula i-1 trillion US dollars, okungeyona nje enkulu kunazo zonke ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe eShayina, kodwa futhi enkulu kunazo zonke ekuhwebeni komhlaba. Kule mpi yezohwebo, ngakolunye uhlangothi, abaseMelika babona isikhundla sabo esabelweni sokuhweba kwamanye amazwe saseShayina sehla ngokushesha. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukubona ukuthi ukuhweba kwamanye amazwe kweShayina kuyachuma, osopolitiki baseMelika bayadideka, futhi ukukhathazeka kwengqondo kanye nokushaya abakuzwile akukaze kwenzeke.

Okwesibili, izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali e-United States limisiwe futhi kunzima ukulinciphisa, okubangele umonakalo omkhulu kubantu baseMelika. Impi yezohwebo eyaqalwa nguTrump kanye nomlandeli wakhe uBiden ngokumelene neChina yaqalwa ngenxa yokuntuleka kokushintshaniswa kwezimboni e-United States. Nakuba i-United States isekele kakhulu ukukhiqizwa nokukhiqizwa kweMexico, i-India, i-Vietnam namanye amazwe ukuze kuthathelwe indawo imikhiqizo yaseShayina, izingxenye eziyinhloko zemboni yokukhiqiza kula mazwe zincike kakhulu ekuhlinzekweni kochungechunge lwezimboni lwaseShayina. Eqinisweni, ithemba le-United States lokushintshaniswa kwezimpahla zokungenisa eNdiya, eVietnam naseMexico liye lahluleka kakhulu ukubala. Uchungechunge lwezimboni lwaseShayina aluzange luthinteke kakhulu yimpi yezohwebo eyaqalwa yi-United States. Ngokuphambene nalokho, intela ebekwe yi-United States ngokuqondile nangokungaqondile kokungeniswa kwezimpahla zaseShayina ngokuyisisekelo idluliselwa kubathengi baseMelika, futhi ibe ngesinye sezizathu eziyinhloko zokwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu e-United States. Kusukela uhulumeni kaTrump waqala impi yezohwebo ngokumelene neShayina, ikakhulukazi kusukela kwaqubuka ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19, izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali lase-US liye landa kancane kancane, futhi konke kuye kwabiza kakhulu. Nakuba uhulumeni wase-US ethathe izinyathelo eziqinile zokuvimbela njengenzalo ephezulu, izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali alikaze lifinyelele umgomo wokulawula. Abantu baseMelika bakhononda kakhulu, futhi izinsolo ezahlukene kanye nokuxhashazwa kukahulumeni wase-US akupheli. Lo mphumela wawungalindelekile nguhulumeni wase-US.

Okwesithathu, ubuthakathaka bochungechunge lwezimboni lwase-US buveziwe, kanti nokushiyeka komkhakha wokukhiqiza sekuye kwaba buthaka nakakhulu. Enye yezinhloso zikahulumeni wase-US zokuqalisa impi yokuhweba kwakuwukudonsela ukukhiqiza emuva e-United States nokwenza imboni yokukhiqiza yase-US iqine futhi. Kodwa-ke, kwenzeka okuphambene nalokho. Uma sibheka imiphumela yeminyaka ecishe ibe yisikhombisa selokhu i-United States yaqala impi yokuhweba, akugcini nje ngokuthi imboni yokukhiqiza ayibuyanga e-United States, kodwa nochungechunge lokuqala lwezimboni lwase-United States nalo luye lwaphazamiseka. Uhlelo olusebenzayo lokuhlukanisa uchungechunge lwezimboni lomhlaba wonke olwakhiwe ekuqaleni yizinkampani zaseMelika luye lwaphazamiseka. Ukuthola abaphakeli abahlukile kudla isikhathi futhi alukwazi ukufeza ikhwalithi kanye nokusebenza kahle kochungechunge lokuqala lokunikezela. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukungaqiniseki okubangelwe yimpi yokuhweba kuye kwenza izinkampani eziningi zaseMelika zingabaza ukwenza izinqumo ezifana nokutshalwa kwezimali kanye nokwandiswa, okuthinta intuthuko ezinzile yesikhathi eside yochungechunge lwezimboni. Isibonelo, izinkampani eziningi zaseMelika zithembele kakhulu ekungenisweni okuvela eShayina ngezinto zokusetshenziswa, izingxenye, njll. Thatha imboni ye-elekthronikhi njengesibonelo. I-China ingumkhiqizi oyinhloko wezingxenye eziningi ze-elekthronikhi. Impi yezohwebo yenza kube nzima ezinkampanini zaseMelika ezihlobene ukuthola ukunikezwa okuzinzile, okwandisa izindleko futhi kuphazamise inqubekela phambili yokukhiqiza. I-Apple, isibonelo, ibhekene nokuntuleka kokunikezwa kwezingxenye. Impi yezohwebo ivimbele ukungeniswa kwezinkampani zokukhiqiza zasekhaya e-United States, okuye kwagcizelela kakhulu ukuntuleka kwemboni yokukhiqiza yase-US kumongo wempi yezohwebo.

Okwesine, i-United States ilahlekelwe yizo zonke izindlela zayo zokuxoxisana ezingxoxweni neChina futhi isiye yaba yizithiyo. Selokhu iChina yajoyina i-WTO ngo-2001, i-United States ibilokhu isebenzisa lokho okubizwa ngokuthi ukungalingani kwezohwebo phakathi kwe-Sino-US ukuze isebenzise izithiyo ngokumelene neChina, iphoqa iChina ukuba ivumelane futhi yenze izivumelwano ezindaweni eziningi, njengokufuna ukwamukelwa kwe-RMB kanye nokucela iChina ukuthi isize i-United States ukuthi iqede inkinga yezezimali. Kodwa-ke, esikhathini esidlule, izithiyo zase-US zazinkulu kodwa zingaphumeleli, kanti izithiyo zangempela zazilinganiselwe, kanti izinzuzo i-United States ezithole eChina zazinkulu kakhulu. Kodwa-ke, ngo-2018, uhulumeni kaTrump wasusa ngokuphelele iqabunga likahulumeni wase-US futhi wathatha izinyathelo zokucindezela ukuhweba okukhulu okungakaze kubonwe ngaphambili ngokumelene neChina, ezama ukuvimbela intuthuko yemboni yaseChina ngokuhweba. Ngemuva kwempi yezohwebo, uhulumeni kaTrump kanye nomlandeli wawo, uhulumeni kaBiden, nabo baqalise impi yezobuchwepheshe kanye nempi yezezimali ngokumelene neChina, futhi balandela futhi babamba izinkampani zobuchwepheshe zaseShayina emhlabeni jikelele. Kuze kube manje, isu lokulawula elamukelwe yi-United States ngokumelene neChina kungathiwa alinabo ubuqotho, futhi amakhadi e-trump asedlaliwe. Akusekho sivumelwano esisele. Ekugcineni, okuwukuphela kwezinyathelo zokuhlasela nokulimaza i-United States engazithatha ngokumelene neShayina ukuhlambalaza imibono yomphakathi kanye nokwenza abantu bangabi nandaba, kodwa futhi zixazululwa ngayinye ngayinye ngenqubomgomo yaseShayina yokungabi nama-visa. Manje, ngemva kweminyaka engaphezu kweyisikhombisa yezimpi zokuhweba, izimpi zobuchwepheshe, izimpi zezimali, kanye nezimpi zemibono yomphakathi, uhulumeni wase-US uthole ngokuzumayo ukuthi ususuke ekubeni ngumuntu othatha isinyathelo uye ekubeni ngumuntu ongenzi lutho lapho ubhekene neShayina.

Impi yezobuchwepheshe inamthelela ongakanani e-United States?

Ngo-2018, ngemva kokuba uhulumeni wase-US eqalise impi yezohwebo neChina, waqala ngokushesha impi yezobuchwepheshe futhi wajoyina amabutho nabalingani bakhe ukuvimba izinkampani zobuchwepheshe baseShayina emhlabeni wonke. Impi yezobuchwepheshe eyaqalwa yi-United States ngokumelene neChina ihlale iminyaka engaphezu kweyisithupha, futhi ibilokhu ikhula njalo, kodwa ijubane lentuthuko yezobuchwepheshe yaseShayina alizange lime, kodwa belilokhu lishesha futhi lishesha. Ngokuphambene nalokho, intuthuko yezobuchwepheshe base-United States uqobo ithinteke kakhulu.

Okokuqala, inzuzo yezobuchwepheshe ye-United States iye yaba buthaka. Ngenxa yezinyathelo zokuvimbela ezithathwe yi-United States ngokumelene neChina, la mazwe amabili awakwazi ukuxhumana ngesayensi nobuchwepheshe. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kuvuselele amandla okusha kanye nosomabhizinisi kahulumeni waseShayina kanye namabhizinisi, futhi kwenza intuthuko enkulu ekusungulweni kwezobuchwepheshe kweShayina kuzo zonke izici. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-United States ilahlekile ngenxa yentuthuko esheshayo yezobuchwepheshe yeShayina. Eminyakeni engama-20 eyedlule, i-United States yayinazo zonke izinzuzo zobuchwepheshe kuneShayina, kodwa namuhla, iShayina ifinyelele ekubambeni okusheshayo futhi yadlula ngisho ne-United States emikhakheni eminingi yokusungulwa kwezobuchwepheshe. Namuhla, ngaphandle kwamasimu ambalwa angavamile, i-United States isalondoloza izinzuzo zayo, futhi cishe zonke ezinye izici ziboshwe ubuchwepheshe baseShayina. I-United States ayigcini nje ngokukwazi ukuqhathaniswa neShayina ezindaweni ezifana nesitimela esinejubane eliphezulu, ukwakha imikhumbi, ugesi, kanye nezimoto ezintsha zamandla, kodwa ngisho nensimu yezindiza, eziqhenya kakhulu nge-United States emhlabeni, iye yanqotshwa yiShayina. Ensimini yama-chip lapho i-United States ibilokhu ihola khona, ngaphandle kwama-chip ambalwa aphezulu asesenenzuzo, ezinye izimboni kanye nezimakethe zama-chip aphakathi naphansi cishe zilawulwa yiShayina. Ngisho neBoston Dynamics, ebilokhu ithuthukisa izinja zamarobhothi amashumi eminyaka, idlulwe ngokushesha yiYushu Technology yaseShayina. IShayina kanye ne-United States bahileleke empini emkhakheni wobuhlakani bokwenziwa, kodwa ngokuvela kweDeepSeek, isimo siyashintsha ngendlela evumelana neShayina.

Okwesibili, ukulahlekelwa yithalente lesayensi nezobuchwepheshe e-United States kuya ngokuya kusobala. Njengoba sonke sazi, ukuchuma kwe-United States kungenxa yokuthi i-United States isibe yindawo exubile yomhlaba wonke yamathalente eminyakeni eyi-100 edlule. Amathalente avela kuwo wonke umhlaba afudukele e-United States futhi enze iminikelo emikhulu ekuthuthukisweni kwesayensi nezobuchwepheshe baseMelika. Phakathi kwabo, abafundi baseShayina, ososayensi baseShayina-America, kanye nabacwaningi bezobuchwepheshe baseShayina-America benze okungcono kakhulu futhi bangabaphambili bebutho lesayensi nezobuchwepheshe baseMelika. Kodwa-ke, eminyakeni yamuva nje, ukulwa kwezepolitiki e-United States kuye kwanda, umphakathi uhlukaniswe kakhulu, futhi izingxabano zobuhlanga ziye zanda. Ikakhulukazi, abantu baseShayina, okuhlanganisa abafundi baseShayina, abacwaningi baseShayina nabaseShayina-America, baye babandlululwa kakhulu e-United States. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuze kunqunywe iziteshi zokuhwebelana kwesayensi nezobuchwepheshe phakathi kweShayina ne-United States, osopolitiki baseMelika abazange bavimbele ukuthunyelwa kobuchwepheshe baseMelika eShayina kuphela, kodwa futhi bavimbele nokuhwebelana ngamathalente phakathi kweShayina ne-United States. Uhulumeni wase-US uphinde wacindezela futhi washushisa abafundi baseShayina, ososayensi baseShayina nabaseMelika baseShayina kanye nonjiniyela abanezizinda zaseShayina, hhayi nje kuphela ukuvimba iziteshi zabo zokukhushulwa kanye nokubavimbela ukubamba izikhundla ezibalulekile kuhulumeni wase-US kanye namabhizinisi, kodwa futhi wanciphisa ububanzi bokufunda kwabo kanye nokuqashwa e-United States. Amanye ama-majors esayensi nobunjiniyela avimbela ngokusobala abafundi abanezizinda zaseShayina ukuthi bafunde, futhi ucwaningo oluningi lwesayensi olubalulekile kanye nezikhundla zobuchwepheshe kanye nezikhungo azivulelekile kubafundi baseShayina kanye nabaseMelika baseShayina kanye nabaseMelika baseShayina. Abafundi baseShayina kanye nabaseMelika baseShayina kanye nabaseMelika baseShayina bakhathazekile kakhulu ekufundeni kwabo, emsebenzini nasekuphileni kwabo e-United States. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, abafundi abaningi baseShayina kanye nososayensi baseShayina kanye nabaseMelika baseShayina kanye nabasebenzi bezobuchwepheshe bakhethe ukushiya i-United States baye kuzo zonke izingxenye zomhlaba. Phakathi kwabo, abanye ososayensi bakhethe ukubuyela eShayina ukuyokhonza izwe labo lokuzalwa. Isibonelo, uSolwazi Yin Zhiyao, usihlalo kanye nomongameli weShanghai Advanced Micro-Semiconductor Equipment Co., Ltd., owabuyela eShayina ngo-2004 ukuyoqala ibhizinisi, wake wathi eminyakeni engama-40 edlule, i-United States ithuthukise okungenani izinhlobo eziyi-10 zemishini ye-semiconductor ethuthukisiwe emhlabeni wonke, okungu-70% kuya ku-80% kwayo kwathuthukiswa ngabafundi baseShayina, kanti okungu-80% kuya ku-90% kwala mathalente abuyele eShayina futhi adlale indima ebalulekile emikhakheni eyahlukene. Ukubuka nje ingwe yonke, isibonelo esishiwo nguSihlalo uYin Zhiyao sibonisa nje isimo sokulahlekelwa yithalente e-United States. Ngokusho kwedatha evela eStanford University e-United States, inani lososayensi baseShayina abashiya i-United States liye landa kancane kancane lisuka ku-900 laya ku-2,621 phakathi kuka-2010 no-2021. Ucwaningo olwenziwe ngabezindaba base-US lubonisa ukuthi phakathi kososayensi baseShayina abangaphezu kuka-1,300, abangu-61% babo basafuna ukushiya i-United States. Idatha ikhombisa ukuthi yize i-United States isenenani elikhulu kunawo wonke ososayensi abaphambili emhlabeni, inani layo liya liba libi kakhulu, futhi inani lososayensi abaphambili emhlabeni eliphethwe yiShayina liyafinyelela e-United States.

Okwesithathu, imboni yezobuchwepheshe yase-US ivinjelwe kakhulu nguhulumeni wase-US. Ngaphambi kokuba i-US iqale impi yezobuchwepheshe neShayina, ukwahlukaniswa kwemisebenzi phakathi kweShayina ne-US emkhakheni we-chip kwakucacile kakhulu, okungukuthi, i-US yayinesibopho sokuklama nokukhiqiza imikhiqizo ye-chip, kanti iShayina yanikeza imakethe yabathengi enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni embonini ye-chip yase-US. Kodwa-ke, impi yezobuchwepheshe eyaqalwa yi-US ngokumelene neShayina yaphula leli phethini. Ukuze kuncishiswe intuthuko yemboni ye-chip yaseShayina, i-US yathatha izinyathelo ezifana nokwakha igceke elincane elinezindonga eziphakeme nokuvimbela ukuthunyelwa kwama-chip aphezulu eShayina. Lesi sinyathelo asizange nje siphoqelele iShayina ukuthi isebenze kanzima, izimele, futhi izimele emkhakheni we-chip, kodwa futhi sahlukanisa ngokuphelele imakethe enkulu yabathengi baseShayina embonini ye-chip yase-US, sashiya izinkampani ze-chip zase-US zingenalutho ngaphandle kokububula ngemakethe yabathengi baseShayina. Ngisho noma izinkampani ze-chip zase-US zinama-chip athuthukile aphambili kunobuchwepheshe baseShayina, ngenxa yokuntuleka kwamakhasimende anele emakethe yaseShayina, ama-chip athuthukile ase-United States alahlekelwe yinzuzo yawo futhi angaba imihlobiso kuphela. Selokhu i-United States yaqala impi yezobuchwepheshe neShayina, imboni yezobuchwepheshe yaseShayina, emelelwe yimboni yama-chip, ayigcinanga nje ngokungabhekananga nobunzima obukhulu, kodwa iqine kakhulu. Ama-chip aseShayina azenzela wona kuwo wonke amazinga, okuhlanganisa aphakathi nendawo, aphezulu naphansi, awazange ahlangabezane kakhulu nesidingo semakethe yasekhaya, kodwa futhi abone ukwanda okukhulu kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe minyaka yonke. Ngo-2024, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwama-chip eShayina kudlule i-trillion yuan, okwamangaza umhlaba. Ngokuphambene nalokho, inzuzo yemboni yama-chip kanye nenani labakhiqizi bama-chip e-United States yehle kakhulu, yalahlekelwa kakhulu, futhi yantula umfutho wentuthuko. Idatha ikhombisa ukuthi i-Intel, inkampani eyaziwayo yama-chip e-United States, yayinemali engenayo yonyaka engama-US$54.228 billion ngo-2023, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka okungu-14.00%, kanye nenzuzo ehlanzekile engama-US$1.689 billion, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka okungu-78.92%. Kwikota yesibili ka-2024, imali engenayo ye-Intel yayingu-US$12.833 billion, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka okungu-0.90%; ukulahlekelwa kwayo okuphelele kwakuyi-US$1.610 billion, okungafani kakhulu nenzuzo yayo engu-US$1.5 billion esikhathini esifanayo sika-2023. Kwikota yesithathu ka-2024, imali engenayo ye-Intel yayiyi-US$13.284 billion, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka okungu-6.17%; ukulahlekelwa kwayo okuphelele kwakuyi-US$16.639 billion, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka okungu-5702.36%. Isibonelo, i-Qualcomm, omunye umenzi we-chip e-United States, ngokuyisisekelo ilahlekelwe yimakethe yaseShayina ekuqaleni kuka-2023 ngenxa yokwanda kwe-United States kwemikhawulo yokuthumela ama-chip, kanti i-China ingumthombo wemali engenayo engaphezu kuka-60%. Inzuzo ephelele ye-Qualcomm kwikota yesibili ka-2023 yehle ngo-52% unyaka nonyaka, ibeka phansi emlandweni eminyakeni yamuva nje. I-Intel ne-Qualcomm zinje, kanti i-Nvidia ne-AMD azihlukile. Ziyi-microcosm yayo yonke imboni yama-chip yase-US okwamanje. Impi yezobuchwepheshe eyaqalwa uhulumeni wase-US ibenze balahlekelwa yimakethe yaseShayina, ngaleyo ndlela balahlekelwa umthombo wabo wenzuzo kanye nesisusa sokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo. Impi yezobuchwepheshe eyaqalwa yi-United States ngokumelene neShayina inomonakalo omncane eShayina, kodwa usizi olubangelwe izinkampani zobuchwepheshe zaseMelika lubonakala ngamehlo enyama.

Impi yezezimali inamthelela ongakanani e-United States?

Esulweni le-United States lokulwa neShayina, ukuqala impi yezezimali kuyisikhali esibi kakhulu sokuhlasela. I-United States ihlose ukuqala impi yezezimali neShayina, ukuqhuma kwezindlu zaseShayina, ukunciphisa i-RMB, nokucindezela imakethe yamasheya yaseShayina, ukuze kufezwe umgomo wokunciphisa intuthuko yezomnotho yaseShayina ngenkathi kuvuna impahla yaseShayina.

Njengoba inqubo yokuvula i-akhawunti yenhloko-dolobha ye-RMB ibilokhu iqhubeka kancane kancane ilawulwa uhulumeni waseShayina, futhi uhulumeni waseShayina wakhe i-firewall eqinile yezezimali, imakethe yezezimali yaseShayina kungathiwa ayinakunqotshwa. Ngokuphikisana nalokhu, ukusebenza kahle kokuhlasela kwezezimali kwe-United States eShayina kuncane kakhulu, futhi ngisho nangezindlela eziningi kuphambene ngokuphelele nalokho i-United States eyayikulindele. I-United States kungathiwa izidubule ngonyawo.

Ngesikhathi sokuchuma kwemakethe yezindlu eShayina, abantu babona ukuthi i-United States iyaqhubeka nokwandisa ukubamba kwayo amabhondi aphesheya kwezilwandle ezinkampanini zezindlu zaseShayina ngokusebenzisa izikhungo zezimali zomhlaba wonke ezazilawula, izama ukumba imigodi nokudala izingibe zezikweletu zezinkampani zezindlu zaseShayina. Kodwa-ke, uhulumeni waseShayina wayesevele ebikezele imakethe yezindlu zasekhaya futhi wathatha uchungechunge lwezinyathelo zokulawula eziphikisanayo ngesikhathi sokukhula kwemakethe yezindlu. Phakathi kwazo, ezinye izinkampani ezinkulu zezindlu zasekhaya zazivinjelwe ekukhuleni phesheya kwezilwandle ngesikweletu nangezinye izindlela, ngaleyo ndlela zigwema ukuwa okungenzeka kwemakethe yezindlu yaseShayina ngenxa yezingibe zezikweletu zaphesheya kwezilwandle. Isibonelo, ukuze kuncishiswe imakethe yamasheya yaseShayina, ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-United States yasebenzisa uphenyo olungafanele ngamasheya omqondo waseShayina futhi yakhipha imibiko engemihle ukucindezela izinkampani zaseShayina ezisohlwini lwase-United States, ngaleyo ndlela idonsela phansi imakethe ye-A-share. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-United States, ngezinye izikhungo zokulinganisa zamazwe ngamazwe ezilawulwa yi-United States, yakhipha uchungechunge lwemibiko emibi engamanga eyayingafanele emnothweni waseShayina, izinkampani zaseShayina kanye nemakethe yamasheya, izama ukudukisa abatshalizimali bamazwe ngamazwe ukuba bashiye imakethe yamasheya yaseShayina. Kodwa-ke, ukusebenza okuvelele komnotho waseShayina, okuwukuphela kwawo emhlabeni, kuqede icebo lase-US lokufinyeza imakethe ye-A-share. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, imakethe ye-A-share inkulu futhi inabatshalizimali abaningi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinhloso zikaSima Zhao wase-US zaziwa kahle yiwo wonke umuntu. Ngakho-ke, umzamo wase-US wokufinyeza imakethe ye-A-share awuphumelelanga. Imakethe ye-A-share yaseShayina isasebenza ngendlela ehlelekile nezimele ngokwesigqi sayo kanye nomzila wayo.

Isifiso esikhulu se-United States ekuqaliseni impi yezezimali neChina ukucindezela izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB ngedola elinamandla, ukuze ikwazi ukumunca imali yaseShayina futhi ivune izimpahla zaseShayina. I-United States ikholelwa ukuthi uma nje inyusa amazinga enzalo futhi idala i-dollar ride, izokwazi ukwenza imali evela kuwo wonke umhlaba, okuhlanganisa neShayina, igeleze iye e-United States. Ngakho-ke, kusukela ngoMashi 2022, i-United States isiqalile umjikelezo omusha wokunyuka kwezinga lenzalo. Nakuba ukunyuka kwezinga lenzalo kokuqala okumbalwa kubangele ukwehla kwe-RMB, akubanga namthelela ekugelezeni kwemali yaseShayina. Ngenxa yalokho, i-Federal Reserve yathatha ukunyuka kwezinga lenzalo okunobudlova, okuvumela i-United States ukuthi igcine izinga lenzalo elicishe libe ngu-6% iminyaka emibili, okudala ukuphakama okusha emlandweni wokunyuka kwezinga lenzalo kwe-Federal Reserve. Nakuba ukwehla kwenani le-RMB exchange rate kwake kwadlula u-17% ngaphansi kwethonya lokunyuka kwezinga lenzalo okunobudlova kwe-Federal Reserve kanye nedola elinamandla, lokho i-United States eyayingakulindeli ukuthi, uma kuqhathaniswa, uma kuqhathaniswa nezinye izimali zamazwe ngamazwe, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB exchange rate lisalokhu lihamba phambili kakhulu. Okudumaza kakhulu i-United States ukuthi inhlokodolobha yaseShayina ayigcinanga nje ngokungagelezi e-United States, kodwa futhi idonsele izimali zomhlaba wonke ukuba zingene. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, iShayina ibilokhu ingenye yamazwe adonsela utshalomali olukhulu kakhulu lwezimali zakwamanye amazwe. Imakethe enkulu yaseShayina, isimo sezombusazwe esizinzile, intuthuko esheshayo, amandla amakhulu, kanye nesimo sebhizinisi esithuthukisiwe nesithuthukisiwe kwenze iShayina yakhanga kakhulu enhlokodolobha yamazwe ngamazwe. Ngokuphikisana nalesi simo, iShayina ayizange nje ilandele i-United States ekunyuseni amazinga enzalo, kodwa kunalokho yathatha ukunciphisa izinga lenzalo ngakolunye uhlangothi lwe-United States. Umjikelezo wezomnotho waseShayina, inqubomgomo yezimali yaseShayina, kanye nokugeleza kwemali yaseShayina akuzange kuthinteke ukunyuka okukhulu kwezinga lenzalo lase-United States kanye nezinqubomgomo zedola eziqinile.

Namuhla, idola eliqinile alisakwazi ukuqhubeka. Ngo-2024, i-United States ithathe isinyathelo sokunciphisa amazinga enzalo ngokungathandi, okubeka i-United States enkingeni. Uma i-United States iyeka ukunciphisa amazinga enzalo futhi iqhubeka nokugcina amazinga enzalo aphezulu, umthwalo omkhulu wenzalo uzokwenza kube nzima ezinkampanini zaseMelika nakuhulumeni wase-US ukuthwala. Thatha uhulumeni wase-US njengesibonelo. Isikweletu sikahulumeni wase-US samanje siphezulu njengezigidigidi ezingama-35 zamaRandi aseMelika. Ezingeni lenzalo yamanje, uhulumeni wase-US kumele asebenzise amaRandi aseMelika afinyelela ku-2 trillion enzalo yesikweletu minyaka yonke, kodwa imali engenayo yonyaka kahulumeni wase-US ingamaRandi ayizigidigidi ezingama-4 zamaRandi aseMelika kuphela. Izindleko ezinkulu zenzalo kakade zingumthwalo ongabekezeleleki kuhulumeni wase-US nasezinkampanini zaseMelika, ngakho-ke ukunciphisa amazinga enzalo kuzoba yisinyathelo esingenakusiza se-Federal Reserve. Kodwa-ke, uma i-Fed iqhubeka nokunciphisa amazinga enzalo, idola eliqinile lizolahlekelwa isikhundla salo, futhi imali yamazwe ngamazwe izophuma e-United States ngamanani amakhulu, okubangela umnotho wase-US ukopha. Uma i-dollar bubble iqhuma, ukubusa kwedola kungase kungaphinde kubuyele esimweni sako, futhi umzamo we-United States wokuvuna umhlaba ngokudala i-dollar tide uzoba nzima ukuwufeza.

Kungashiwo ukuthi impi yezezimali eyaqalwa yi-United States ngokumelene neChina inomthelela omubi omkhulu nofinyelela kude e-United States, futhi umthelela omubi e-United States uzobonakala kakhulu njengoba umnotho wase-US uncipha.