Kwaba yini umphumela wepi yezomnotho ye-USA ne-China?

（Igadangiswe kabutjha ku-akhawunti esemthethweni ye-Oriental Finance Magazine, ngu-Yan Ansheng, isekela likasihlalo we-Hong Kong Journal Media Association.)

Solo kwangomnyaka ka-2025, ipi yokurhwebelana hlangana ne-Sino ne-US sele ikhuphuke khulu, begodu umdlalo emkhakheni weendleko, ithekhnoloji, kanye namaketango webubulo utjengise umukghwa wokulwa okuhlukahlukeneko. Amahlangothi womabili la athome ukulwisana okukhulu malungana neendawo eziqakathekileko ezifana nama-semiconductors, iinkoloyi ezitjha zamandla, kanye nezokulima. Mhlana amalanga ama-2 kuMrhayili wee-2025, urhulumende we-US wamemezela bona uzokubeka "imali yokubuyisela" empahleni ye-China ethunyelwa e-United States, ngezinga lomthelo lama-34%. Kuhlanganiswe nentengo yama-20% kusukela ngo-2018, izinga lomthelo elipheleleko lifinyelele ku-54%. I-China ayikho ngcono khulu. Mhlana amalanga ama-4 kuMrhayili, i-China yethula msinyana umthethomgomo wokubhadela imali "34% ukuya ku-34%", yabeka imali yama-34% kizo zoke iimpahla ezibuya ngaphandle ezivela e-United States, ezibandakanya imikhiqizo yezokulima, amandla, iinkoloyi neminye imikhakha. Ngesikhathi esifanako, i-China ifake iinhlangano ezili-16 ze-US erhelweni lokulawula ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle, ukuvimbela ukuthunyelwa kwezinto ezisetjenziswa kabili kizo; begodu ifake amakhamphani ali-11 erhelweni leenhlangano ezingathembekiko, ebavimbela bona bangazibandakanyi emisebenzini yokungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle ne-China. Ukungezelela, i-China imise iimfundo zokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kweenkampani ezi-6 ze-US zemikhiqizo yezokulima e-China, begodu yaqalisa ukulawula ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwezinto eziphathelene nephasi elingakajayeleki eliphakathi nendawo nelinzima.

Ukusuka emzuliswaneni wakamuva wepi yokurhwebelana ye-Sino-US, singabona bona amagadango wokulwisana ne-China ayaqina khulu. Njeke, ngubani ozokuthumba ipi yezomnotho ye-Sino-US ekugcineni? Akubudisi ukufika esiphethweni ngokubuyekeza ukuncintisana kwezomnotho kwe-Sino-US kusukela ngo-2018.

Ipi yokurhweba inomthelela ongakanani e-United States?

Ngomnyaka ka-2018, umbuso ka-Trump, obekangumongameli we-US ngaleso sikhathi, wathoma ipi yokurhweba ne-China, eyaba budisi khulu ngesikhathi sombuso ka-Biden. Kodwana, ngemva kweminyaka elikhomba, i-United States akhenge yehluleke ukufikelela iinhloso zayo ezilindelweko kwaphela, kodwana ihlangabezane nokulahlekelwa okukhulu, imiraro, begodu yaveza iinqe zayo ezinqunu. Ipi yezokurhwebelana ye-US inomonakalo omncani e-China, kodwana umonakalo e-United States ngokwayo udlule khulu lokho abantu be-America ebebakulindele, okuvezwa khulukhulu eendaweni ezilandelako.

Kokuthoma, abosopolotiki be-Amerikha bahlangabezane nokugandeleleka okukhulu kwengqondo. Kuyo yoke ipi yezokurhweba, ukurhwebelana kwamazwe we-China kwathuthuka ngokupheleleko, begodu kungathiwa lokha ipi nayinamandla, iyaqina. Ngaphandle komthelela wokuthoma wepi yezokurhwebelana ekuthengiseni ngaphandle, umthethomgomo we-China wokuqinisa ukurhwebelana kwamanye amazwe udlale indima ngesikhathi esifitjhani khulu. Ngokuqinisa ukusebenzisana nokutjhinisana namapulatifomu neendlela ezifana ne-RCEP, i-Belt and Road Initiative, kanye namazwe we-BRICS, i-China yenza msinyana isikhala sokunciphisa ukurhwebelana ne-United States, begodu sele iragela phambili yoke indlela, ngokurhwebelana kwamanye amazwe okuragela phambili nokukhula qobe mnyaka. Idatha esemthethweni itjengisa bona ukuthunyelwa kwe-China ngaphandle kuzokufikelela ku-25 trillion yama-yuan ngo-2024, begodu isabelo sayo sokurhweba sizokudlula i-1 trillion yamadola we-US, okungesikho kwaphela ukuthunyelwa kwe-China ngaphandle, kodwana kukhulu khulu ekuthengiseni ephasini loke. Kulepi yezokurhweba, ngakelinye ihlangothi, ama-American abona ubujamo babo esabelo se-China sokurhwebelana kwamanye amazwe sehla msinyana. Ngakelinye ihlangothi, ngokubona bona ukurhwebelana kwe-China kwamanye amazwe kuyakhula, abosopolotiki be-America badidekile, begodu ukutshwenyeka kwengqondo nokutjhaywa abahlangabezane nakho akukaze kube khona.

Kwesibili, izinga lokunyuka kwamanani e-United States sele likhuphukile begodu kubudisi ukulehlisa, okwenza bona abantu be-America balimale khulu. Ipi yokurhwebelana eyathonywa ngu-Trump nomlandeli wakhe u-Biden ngokujamelana ne-China yathonywa ngokommongo wokutlhogeka kokuthatha indawo yamabubulo e-United States. Nanyana i-United States isekele khulu ukukhiqizwa nokukhiqiza kwe-Mexico, i-India, i-Vietnam namanye amazwe ukwenzela bona ithathe indawo yemikhiqizo ye-China, iingcenye eziqakathekileko zebubulo lokukhiqiza emazweni la zithembele khulu ekunikelweni kwemikhiqizo ye-China. Kuhlekuhle, ithemba le-United States lokufaka esikhundleni sezinto ezibuya ngaphandle e-India, e-Vietnam ne-Mexico lingakalungi khulu. Iimboni ze-China azange zithinteke khulu ngepi yezokurhwebelana eyathonywa yi-United States. Ngokuphikisako, iindleko ezibekwa yi-United States ngokunqophileko nangokunganqophileko eentweni ezibuya ngaphandle kwe-China zidluliselwa kubathengi be-America, begodu zibe ngesinye seenzathu ezikulu zokwenyuka kwamanani e-United States. Solo umbuso ka-Trump wathoma ipi yokurhwebelana ne-China, khulukhulu solo kwaqubuka umtlhago we-COVID-19, izinga lokunyuka kwamanani e-US belisolo likhuphuka, begodu yoke into sele ibiza khulu. Nanyana urhulumende we-US athathe amagadango wokuvikela amakhulu afana namazinga aphezulu wenzalo, izinga lokunyuka kwamanani alikaze lifinyelele umnqopho wokulawula. Abantu be-Amerikha bayakhonona khulu, begodu iinsolo ezihlukahlukeneko nokuhlukunyezwa kurhulumende we-US akupheli. Umphumela lo bewungakalindelwa ngurhulumende we-US.

Okwesithathu, ubuthakathaka bebubulo le-US buvezwe, begodu ukutlhayela kwebubulo lokukhiqiza sele kubuthakathaka khulu. Enye yeenhloso zikaRhulumende we-US zokuthoma ipi yokurhweba bekukudosa amabhizinisi wokukhiqiza abuyele e-United States begodu enze ibubulo lokukhiqiza le-US libe namandla godu. Kodwana, kwenzeka okuphambene nalokho. Nawuqalisisa imiphumela yeminyaka engaba likhomba solo i-United States yathoma ipi yezokurhweba, ingasi kwaphela bona ibubulo lokukhiqiza alikabuyeli e-United States, kodwana ibubulo lokuthoma le-United States nalo liphazamisekile. Irherho elisebenzako lokuhlukanisa amaketani webubulo lephasi loke elakhiwa ziinkampani ze-Amerikha sele liphazamisekile. Ukuthola abanye abathengisi kuthatha isikhathi begodu angeze kwakghona ukufikelela ikhwalithi nokusebenza kuhle kwethungelelwano lokuthoma lokuthengisa. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukungaqiniseki okulethwe yipi yezokurhweba kwenze bona amakhamphani amanengi we-America athandabuze ukwenza iinqunto ezifana nokutjala imali nokwandisa, okuthinta ukuthuthukiswa okuzinzileko kwesikhathi eside kweketango lamabubulo. Ukwenza isibonelo, amakhamphani amanengi we-America athembele khulu eentweni ezibuya e-China malungana nezinto ezisetjenziswako, iingcenye, njll. Thatha ibubulo le-elekthronikhi njengesibonelo. I-China ngumkhiqizi omkhulu wezinto ezinengi ze-elekthronikhi. Ipi yezokurhwebelana yenza kube budisi emakhamphanini we-America ahlobeneko ukuthola ukuphakelwa okuzinzileko, okukhuphula iindleko begodu kuphazamise iragelophambili lokukhiqiza. I-Apple, ngokwesibonelo, iqalene nokutlhayela kweengcenye. Ipi yezokurhweba ivimbele ukungeniswa kwamakhamphani wokukhiqiza wangekhaya e-United States, okuveze khulu ukutjhiya kwebubulo lokukhiqiza le-US ngokommongo wepi yokurhweba.

Okwesine, i-United States ilahlekelwe ngizo zoke iindlela zayo zokubonisana ngeengcoco ne-China begodu sele ingasasebenzi. Solo i-China yajoyina i-WTO ngo-2001, i-United States kanengi isebenzisa lokho okubizwa ngokuthi kukungalingani kokurhwebelana kwe-Sino-US ukugandelela i-China, okugandelela i-China bona iyekethise begodu yenze ukuvuma eendaweni ezinengi, njengokufuna ukuthokozwa kwe-RMB ngitjho nokubawa i-China bona isize i-United States ukuqeda ubujamo obubudisi bezemali. Kodwana, esikhathini esidlulileko, iinjeziso ze-US bezizwakala khulu kodwana zingasebenzi, begodu iinjeziso zangempela bezilinganiselwe, begodu iinzuzo i-United States ezazithola e-China bezinkulu. Kodwana, ngo-2018, umbuso ka-Trump wadabula ngokupheleleko ikhasi lomkhiwane karhulumende we-US begodu wathatha amagadango wokugandelela ukurhwebelana okukhulu khulu ngokujamelene ne-China, ukulinga ukukhandela ukuthuthukiswa kwebubulo le-China ngokusebenzisa ukurhweba. Ngemva kwepi yezokurhwebelana, umbuso ka-Trump nomlandeli wayo, umbuso ka-Biden, nabo bathoma ipi yethekhnoloji nepi yezezimali ngokujamelene ne-China, begodu balandela begodu bavimbela amakhamphani wethekhnoloji we-China ephasini loke. Bekube nje, iqhinga lokuvimbela elamukelwa yi-United States malungana ne-China kungatjhiwo bona alinasizotha, begodu amakhadi we-trump sele adlalwe. Akusekho ukuthengiselana okuseleko. Ekugcineni, ukuhlasela nokulimaza okukuphela kwendlela i-United States engayithatha ngokujamelene ne-China kuhlambalaza umbono womphakathi nokuyidemoniya, kodwana nayo irarululwa ngamunye ngamunye ngomthethomgomo we-China wokungabi ne-visa. Nje, ngemva kweminyaka engaphezu kwelikhomba yeempi zokurhweba, iimpi zethekhnoloji, iimpi zezezimali, kanye neempi zombono womphakathi, urhulumende we-US uthole msinyana bona usuke ekutheni uthathe amagadango waya ekutheni aqalene ne-China.

Ipi yetheknoloji inomthelela ongakanani e-United States?

Ngomnyaka ka-2018, ngemva kobana urhulumende we-US athome ipi yokurhweba ne-China, msinyana wathoma ipi yethekhnoloji begodu wahlanganyela nabalingani bakhe ukuvimba amakhamphani wethekhnoloji we-China ephasini loke. Ipi yethekhnoloji eyathonywa yi-United States ngokujamelene ne-China sele ithathe iminyaka engaphezu kwesithandathu, begodu beyisolo ikhula, kodwana ijubane lokuthuthukiswa kwethekhnoloji ye-China alikajame, kodwana belisolo likhula msinyana. Ngokuphikisako, ukuthuthukiswa kwethekhnoloji ye-United States kuthinteke khulu.

Kokuthoma, ubuhle bethekhnoloji be-United States bube buthakathaka. Ngebanga lamagadango wokuvimba athathwe yi-United States malungana ne-China, amazwe amabili la angeze akghone ukukhulumisana ngesayensi nethekhnoloji. Ngakelinye ihlangothi, kukhuthaze amandla wokwenza izinto ezitjha nokwenza amabhizinisi karhulumende we-China namabhizinisi, begodu kwenze ipumelelo ekulu ekusungulweni kwethekhnoloji ye-China kizo zoke iingaba. Ngakelinye ihlangothi, i-United States ilahlekile malungana nentuthuko yezobuchwepheshe ye-China. Eminyakeni ema-20 eyadlulako, i-United States gade inenzuzo yoke yethekhnoloji ukudlula i-China, kodwana namhlanjesi, i-China sele ifinyelele msinyana begodu idlule i-United States emikhakheni eminengi yokuthuthukisa ithekhnoloji. Namhlanjesi, ngaphandle kwemikhakha embalwa ephezulu, i-United States isalondoloza iinzuzo zayo, begodu pheze zoke ezinye iingaba zihlobene nethekhnoloji ye-China. Akusikho kwaphela bona i-United States ayikwazi ukumadanisa ne-China eendaweni ezifana nesitimela esinejubane elikhulu, ukwakhiwa kwemikhumbi, igezi, kanye neenkoloyi ezitjha zamandla, kodwana ngitjho nomkhakha we-aerospace, ozikhakhazisa khulu nge-United States ephasini, udlule yi-China. Emkhakheni we-chip lapho i-United States beyisolo idosa phambili, ngaphandle kwama-chip ambalwa asezingeni eliphezulu asenethuba, amanye amabubulo we-chip aphakathi nephasi kanye namamakethe pheze alawulwa yi-China. Ngitjho ne-Boston Dynamics, ebeyithuthukisa izinja zamarobhothi iminyaka eminengi, sele idlule msinyana yi-Yushu Technology ye-China. I-China ne-United States bazibandakanya emkhakheni wezobuhlakani bokwakha, kodwana ngokuvela kwe-DeepSeek, ubujamo butjhuguluka bube sebujameni obuhle e-China.

Kwesibili, ukulahlekelwa kwamathalenta wezesayensi nezobuchwepheshe e-United States kuya ngokuya kubonakala. Njengombana soke sazi, ipumelelo ye-United States ibangelwa kukuthi i-United States sele ibe yindawo yokuhlanganisa amathalenta ephasini loke eminyakeni elikhulu edlulileko. Amathalenta avela ephasini loke afudukele e-United States begodu enza igalelo elikhulu ekuthuthukisweni kwesayensi nethekhnoloji ye-America. Hlangana nabo, abafundi be-China, abososayensi be-China-American, nabarhubhululi bezobuchwepheshe be-China-America benze ngcono begodu baphambili ebuthweni lezesayensi nethekhnoloji le-America. Kodwana, eminyakeni esanda kwedlula, ukulwa kwezepolotiki e-United States kukhuphukile, umphakathi sele uhlukaniswe khulu, begodu ukurarana ngokobuhlanga kuye kwaqina. Khulukhulu, abantu abavela e-China, okufaka hlangana abafundi be-China, abarhubhululi be-China kanye ne-China-American, babandlululwa khulu e-United States. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwenzela ukuvala iindlela zokutjhinisana kwezesayensi nezobuchwepheshe hlangana ne-China ne-United States, abosopolotiki be-America akhenge bavimbele ukuthunyelwa kwethekhnoloji ye-America e-China kwaphela, kodwana bavimbele nokuthengiselana kwamathalenta hlangana ne-China ne-United States. Urhulumende we-US uphinde wagandelela begodu wahlukuluza abafundi be-China, abososayensi be-China ne-China-America abaneemvelaphi ze-China, ingasi kwaphela ukuvimba iindlela zabo zokukhutjhulwa begodu ubavimbele ukubamba iinkhundla eziqakathekileko kurhulumende we-US namabhizinisi, kodwana nokukhawulela ukufunda nomsebenzi wabo e-United States. Ezinye iimfundo zesayensi nobunjiniyela zivimbela ngokukhanyako abafundi abaneemvelaphi zamaTjhayina bona bafunde, begodu iinkhundla ezinengi eziqakathekileko zezesayensi nezobuchwepheshe neenkhungo azivunyelwe abafundi beTjhayina namaTjhayina namaTjhayina-we-Amerikha. Abafundi be-China nama-China nama-China-American baya ngokuya bakhathazeka ekufundeni kwabo, emsebenzini nepilweni yabo e-United States. Eminyakeni esanda kwedlula, abafundi abanengi be-China kanye nabososayensi be-China ne-China-American nabasebenzi bezobuchwepheshe bakhethe ukutjhiya i-United States baye kizo zoke iindawo zephasi. Hlangana nabo, abanye abososayensi bakhethe ukubuyela e-China ukuyokusebenzela inarha yabo. Ukwenza isibonelo, uPhrofesa Yin Zhiyao, umgcinisihlalo nomongameli we-Shanghai Advanced Micro-Semiconductor Equipment Co., Ltd., owabuyela e-China ngo-2004 ukuyokuthoma ibhizinisi, wake wathi eminyakeni ema-40 edlulileko, i-United States yenze okungenani imihlobo eli-10 yemitjhini yama-semiconductor ethuthukisiweko yamazwe ngamazwe, eyathuthukiswa ku-80% ngabafundi be-China, begodu ama-80% ukuya ku-90% wamathalenta la abuyele e-China begodu adlala indima eqakathekileko emikhakheni ehlukahlukeneko. Ukubuka ingwe yoke, isibonelo esivezwe nguSihlalo u-Yin Zhiyao sitjengisa ubujamo bokulahlekelwa lithalenta e-United States. Ngokuya kwedatha evela e-Stanford University e-United States, inani labososayensi be-China abatjhiya i-United States likhuphuke ukusuka ku-900 ukuya ku-2,621 hlangana nomnyaka ka-2010 ukuya ku-2021. Irhubhululo elenziwa ziindaba ze-US litjengisa bona hlangana nabososayensi be-China abangaphezu kwe-1,300, ama-61% wabo asafuna ukutjhiya i-United States. Idatha itjengisa bona nanyana i-United States isenani elikhulu labososayensi abaphezulu ephasini, inani layo liya ngokuya liba libi, begodu inani labososayensi abaphezulu ephasini abaphethwe yi-China lifinyelela i-United States.

Okwesithathu, ibubulo lethekhnoloji le-US livinjelwe khulu ngurhulumende we-US. Ngaphambi kobana i-US ithome ipi yethekhnoloji ne-China, ukwahlukaniswa kwemisebenzi hlangana ne-China ne-US emkhakheni we-chip bekucacile khulu, okutjho bona, i-US beyiphethe umthwalo wokuklama nokukhiqiza imikhiqizo yama-chip, begodu i-China beyinikela ngemakethe ekulu yabathengi ephasini yebubulo lama-chip we-US. Kodwana, ipi yethekhnoloji eyathonywa yi-US ngokujamelana ne-China yaphula iphetheni le. Ukurarulula ukuthuthukiswa kwebubulo lama-chip we-China, i-US yamukela amagadango afana nokwakha igceke elincani elinamaboda aphakemeko nokukhandela ukuthunyelwa kwama-chip wezinga eliphezulu e-China. Isenzo lesi asizange siphoqe i-China bona isebenze ngamandla, izithembe, begodu iziphilise emkhakheni we-chip kwaphela, kodwana yahlukanisa ngokupheleleko imakethe ekulu yabathengi ye-China embonini yama-chip ye-US, kwatjhiya amakhamphani wama-chip we-US anganalitho ngaphandle kokububula ngemakethe yabathengi ye-China. Ngitjho nanyana iinkhampani zama-chip we-US zinama-chip athuthukileko aphambili kwethekhnoloji ye-China, ngebanga lokutlhogeka kwamakhasimende aneleko emakethe ye-China, lokho okubizwa ngokuthi ma-chip athuthukileko we-United States alahlekelwe yinzuzo yawo begodu angaba mihlobiso kwaphela. Solo i-United States yathoma ipi yethekhnoloji ne-China, ibubulo lethekhnoloji le-China, elimelelwe yibubulo le-chip, alizange libe nokutjhaywa okukhulu kwaphela, kodwana sele liqine khulu. Ama-chips we-China azikhiqizako kiwo woke amazinga, kufaka hlangana aphakathi, aphezulu naphasi, azange ahlangabezane neemfuno zemakethe yangekhaya kwaphela, kodwana abone ukwanda okukhulu kokuthunyelwa ngaphandle qobe mnyaka. Ngomnyaka ka-2024, ukuthunyelwa kwama-chip we-China kwadlula i-yuan eyi-trillion, okwamangalisa iphasi loke. Ngokuphikisako, inzuzo yebubulo lama-chip kanye nenani labakhiqizi bama-chip e-United States yehle khulu, yalahlekelwa khulu, begodu yaswela umfutho wokuthuthukisa. Idatha itjengisa bona i-Intel, ikhamphani eyaziwako yama-chip e-United States, beyinengeniso yonyaka ye-US$54.228 yamabhiliyoni ngo-2023, ukwehla ngonyaka nge-14.00%, kanye nenzuzo epheleleko ye-US$1.689 yamabhiliyoni, ukwehla ngonyaka nge-78.92%. Ngekota yesibili ka-2024, ingeniso ye-Intel beyiyi-US$12.833 yamabhiliyoni, ukwehla kweminyaka nge-0.90%; ukulahlekelwa kwayo okupheleleko bekuyi-US$1.610 yamabhiliyoni, ngokuphambene khulu nenzuzo yayo ye-US$1.5 yamabhiliyoni ngesikhathi esifanako saka-2023. Ngekota yesithathu ka-2024, ingeniso ye-Intel beyiyi-US$13.284 yamabhiliyoni, ukwehla ngonyaka nge-6.17%; ukulahlekelwa kwayo okupheleleko bekuyi-US$16.639 yamabhiliyoni, ukwehla ngonyaka ngomnyaka ngama-5702.36%. Esinye isibonelo, i-Qualcomm, omunye umkhiqizi wama-chip e-United States, walahlekelwa yimakethe ye-China ekuthomeni komnyaka ka-2023 ngebanga lokunwetshwa kwemikhawulo yokuthunyelwa kwama-chip ngaphandle kwe-United States, begodu i-China ngumthombo wemali engaphezu kwama-60% wemali yayo. Inzuzo ye-Qualcomm ngekota yesibili ka-2023 yehle ngamaphesente ama-52 ngonyaka, yabeka izinga eliphasi khulu eminyakeni esanda kwedlula. I-Intel ne-Qualcomm zinjalo, begodu i-Nvidia ne-AMD nazo. Ziyinto encani yebubulo le-US yama-chip njenganje. Ipi yethekhnoloji ethonywe ngurhulumende we-US yenze bona balahlekelwe yimakethe ye-China, ngaleyindlela balahlekelwe mthombo wabo wenzuzo kanye nesisusa sokuragela phambili. Ipi yethekhnoloji eyathonywa yi-United States ngokujamelene ne-China ilimaze i-China, kodwana ukuhlukunyezwa okubangelwe ziinkampani zethekhnoloji ze-America kubonakala ngamehlo.

Ipi yezeemali inomthelela ongakanani e-United States?

Eqhingeni lokuvimbela le-United States ukujamelana ne-China, ukuthoma ipi yezezimali sisikhali esimbi khulu sokuhlasela. I-United States ihlose ukuthoma ipi yezeemali ne-China, ukuqhumisa indawo ye-China, ukunciphisa i-RMB, nokugandelela imakethe yamasheya we-China, ukwenzela bona ifinyelele umnqopho wokukhandela ukuthuthukiswa komnotho we-China lokha nayivuna ipahla ye-China.

Njengombana ikambiso yokuvulwa kwe-akhawundi yemali ye-RMB beyisolo yenziwa kancanikancani elawulwa ngurhulumende we-China, begodu urhulumende we-China wakhe isivikelo esiqinileko sezezimali, imakethe yezezimali ye-China kungathiwa ayikwazi ukunqotshwa. Ngaphandle kwalokhu, ukusebenza kuhle kokuhlaselwa kwe-United States ngeemali e-China kulinganiselwe khulu, begodu nangeendlela ezinengi kuphambene khulu nalokho i-United States ebekulindele. Kungathiwa i-United States izidubule ngenyawo.

Ngesikhathi sokukhula kwemakethe yezindlu e-China, abantu babona bona i-United States iragela phambili nokwandisa ukuphathwa kwayo kwamabhondi wangaphandle weenkampani zezindlu ze-China ngokusebenzisa lokho okubizwa ngokuthi ziinkhungo zezezimali zamazwe ngamazwe ebezilawula, ukulinga ukumba imigodi nokwenza iinthiyo zesikwelede eenkampanini zezindlu ze-China. Kodwana, urhulumende we-China besele abikezele imakethe yezakhiwo yangekhaya begodu sele athathe amagadango wokulawula aphikisana nomjikelezo ngesikhathi esiphezulu sokukhula kwemakethe yezakhiwo. Hlangana nazo, ezinye iinkhampani ezinkulu zezindlu zangaphakathi bezivinjelwe ukwandisa ngaphetjheya ngokusebenzisa isikolodo nezinye iindlela, ngaleyo ndlela zigwenywe ukuwohloka okungenzeka kwemakethe yezindlu ye-China ngebanga lezithiyo zesikwelede sangaphetjheya. Ukwenza isibonelo, ukwenzela ukunciphisa imakethe yamasheya we-China, ngakelinye ihlangothi, i-United States yasebenzisa iimphenyo ezingakafaneli emasheya we-China begodu yakhipha imibiko engakalungi ukugandelela amakhamphani we-China atlolwe e-United States, ngaleyo ndlela yehle imakethe yamasheya we-A. Ngakelinye ihlangothi, i-United States, ngokusebenzisa amanye ama-ejensi wokulinganisa weentjhabatjhaba alawulwa yi-United States, ikhiphe uchungechunge lwemibiko engasiqiniso engasiyihle ebegade ihlasela umnotho we-China, amakhamphani we-China kanye nemakethe yamasheya, ilinga ukudukisa abatjalimali bamazwe ngamazwe bona batjhiye imakethe yamasheya ye-China. Kodwana, ukusebenza kuhle komnotho we-China, okunguye kwaphela ephasini, kuphule itulo le-US lokunciphisa imakethe yamasheya we-A. Ngesikhathi esifanako, imakethe yamasheya we-A yikulu begodu inabatjalimali abanengi. Ukungezelela, iinhloso zika-Sima Zhao we-US zaziwa ngibo boke abantu. Ngalokho-ke, umzamo we-US wokunciphisa imakethe yamasheya we-A azange uphumelele. Imakethe ye-A-share ye-China isasebenza ngendlela ehlelekileko nezijameleko ngokuya ngesigqi sayo nendlela yayo.

Ukufisa okukhulu kwe-United States ekuqaliseni ipi yezezimali ne-China kukugandelela izinga lokutjhentjhana kwe-RMB ngedola eliqinileko, ukwenzela bona ithathe imali ye-China begodu ivune ipahla ye-China. I-United States ikholelwa bona inqobo nje nayikhuphula amazinga wenzalo begodu yenza i-dollar tide, izokukghona ukwenza imali evela ephasini loke, kufaka hlangana i-China, iye e-United States. Ngalokho-ke, ukusukela ngoNtaka 2022, i-United States ithome umjikelezo omutjha wokukhuphula amazinga wenzalo. Nanyana ukunyuka kwamazinga wenzalo kwabangela ukwehla kwe-RMB, bekunganamthelela ekugelezeni kwemali ye-China. Njengomphumela, i-Federal Reserve yakhuphula khulu amazinga wenzalo, okwenza bona i-United States igcine izinga lenzalo elipheze libe yi-6% iminyaka emibili, okwenza izinga eliphezulu elitjha emlandwini wokukhuphuka kwamazinga wenzalo we-Federal Reserve. Nanyana ukwehla kwezinga lokutjhentjhana kwe-RMB kwake kwadlula i-17% ngaphasi kwethonya lokunyuka kwezinga lenzalo elinamandla le-Federal Reserve kanye nedola elinamandla, lokho i-United States ebekungakulindele bekukuthi, ngokukhuluma ngokulinganayo, nayiqathaniswa nezinye iimali zamazwe ngamazwe, izinga lokutjhentjhana le-RMB lisesemdosiphambili ozinzileko. Okudanisa khulu i-United States kukobana imali ye-China ayizange igelezele e-United States kwaphela, kodwana idose imali yephasi loke bona ingene. Eminyakeni esanda kwedlula, i-China ibe ngelinye lamazwe adosa imali enengi yangaphandle. Imakethe ekulu ye-China, ubujamo bezepolotiki obuzinzileko, ukuthuthukiswa okurhabako, amandla amakhulu, kanye nebhoduluko lamabhizinisi elithuthukisiweko nelithuthukisiweko kwenze i-China yakhanga khulu emalini yamazwe ngamazwe. Ngaphandle kwalokhu, i-China azange ilandele i-United States ekukhuphuleni amazinga wenzalo kwaphela, kodwana yathatha ukunciphisa amazinga wenzalo ngendlela ehlukileko ye-United States. Umjikelezo wezomnotho we-China, umthethomgomo wemali we-China, kanye nokugeleza kwemali ye-China akuzange kuthinteke ngokunyuka okukhulu kwamazinga wenzalo we-United States kanye nemigomo eqinileko yamadola.

Namhlanjesi, idola elinamandla alisakghoni ukusimama. Ngomnyaka ka-2024, i-United States ithathe igadango lokwehlisa amazinga wenzalo ngokungafuni, okubeka i-United States ebujameni obubudisi. Nangabe i-United States ilisa ukunciphisa amazinga wenzalo begodu iragele phambili nokugcina amazinga wenzalo aphezulu, umthwalo omkhulu wezinga lenzalo uzokwenza kube budisi emakhamphanini we-America noRhulumende we-US ukuthwala. Thatha urhulumende we-US njengesibonelo. Isikwelede sikaRhulumende we-US samanje siphezulu ngama-35 trillion wamadola we-US. Ngokwezinga lenzalo yamanje, urhulumende we-US kufanele asebenzise imali efika ku-2 trillion yamadola we-US enzalo yesikolodo qobe mnyaka, kodwana imali engenako karhulumende we-US yonyaka yi-4 trillion yamadola we-US kwaphela. Iindleko ezinkulu zenzalo sele zimthwalo ongabekezelelekiko kurhulumende we-US kanye neenkhamphani ze-America, ngalokho ukwehlisa amazinga wenzalo kuzokuba ligadango elingasizi ngalitho le-Federal Reserve. Kodwana, nangabe i-Fed iragela phambili nokunciphisa amazinga wenzalo, idola elinamandla lizakulahlekelwa bujamo balo, begodu imali yamazwe ngamazwe izokuphuma e-United States ngobunengi, okwenza bona umnotho we-US uphume. Lokha ibhamuza ledola naliqhuma, ukubusa kwedola kungasoze kwabuya, begodu umzamo we-United States wokuvuna umhlaba ngokudala idola kuzokuba budisi ukuwenza.

Kungatjhiwo bona ipi yezeemali eyathonywa yi-United States ngokujamelana ne-China inomthelela omumbi omkhulu nofikelela kude e-United States, begodu umthelela omumbi e-United States uzokubonakala khulu njengombana umnotho we-US wehla.