Waba yini umphumela wemphi yetetemnotfo yase-USA neShayina?

(Ishicilelwe kabusha kusuka ku-akhawunti lesemtsetfweni yeMagazini Wetetimali waseMphumalanga, nguYan Ansheng, lisekela lasihlalo weNhlangano Yetindzaba Yejenali YaseHong Kong.)

Kusukela nga-2025, impi yekuhweba ye-Sino-US seyikhulile kakhulu, futsi umdlalo emikhakheni yematharifi, tebuchwepheshe, kanye nemaketanga etimboni ukhombise umkhuba wekubhekana netigaba letinyenti. Letinhlangotsi letimbili tetfule kulwa lokukhulu lokutungelete tindzawo letibalulekile letifana nema-semiconductors, timoto letinsha temandla, kanye nekulima. Ngenyanga yeNdlovana mhla tinge-2, 2025, hulumende wase-US wamemetela kutsi utawubeka "intsengo lebuyiselanako" etimphahleni taseShayina letitfunyelwa eMelika, ngesilinganiso semtselo lesingu-34%. Kuhlanganiswa nemali lekhokhwako lengu-20% kusukela nga-2018, lizinga lemtselo leliphelele lifinyelele ku-54%. I-China ayisiyo lencono kakhulu. Ngenyanga yeNdlovana mhla tinge-4, iChina yasheshe yetfula umtsetfomgomo wekukhokha imali lephindzaphindvwako "34% kuya ku-34%", yabeka imali lengu-34% kuto tonkhe timphahla letibuya kulamanye emave letivela eMelika, letifaka ekhatsi imikhicito yekulima, emandla, timoto kanye naletinye tindzawo. Ngesikhatsi lesifanako, iChina ifake tinhlangano letingu-16 tase-US eluhlwini lwekulawula kutfunyelwa ngaphandle, kuvimbela kutfunyelwa ngaphandle kwetintfo letisetjentiswa kabili kuto; futsi wafaka tinkampani letingu-11 eluhlwini lwetinhlangano letingatsembeki, wativimbela kutsi tihlanganyele emisebenti yekungenisa nekutfumela tintfo letibuya kulamanye emave neChina. Ngetulu kwaloko, iChina imise ticu tekutfumela ngaphandle kwetinkampani letingu-6 tase-US temikhicito yekulima eChina, futsi yacala kusebentisa kulawula kutfumela ngaphandle kwetintfo letisemkhatsini naletisindzako letihlobene nemhlaba longakavami.

Kusukela emzuliswaneni wakamuva wemphi yekuhwebelana ye-Sino-US, siyabona kutsi tindlela tekulwa ne-China tiya ngekuba nemandla. Ngako-ke, ngubani lotawuphumelela empini yetetemnotfo yaseSino-US ekugcineni? Akusiko matima kwenta siphetfo ngekubuyeketa umncintiswano wetemnotfo waseSino-US kusukela nga-2018.

Impi yekuhweba inemitselela lemikhulu kangakanani eMelika?

Nga-2018, umbuso waTrump, ngaleso sikhatsi bekangumengameli waseMelika, wetfula imphi yekuhwebelana neShayina, leyaba matima kakhulu ngesikhatsi sekuphatsa kwaBiden. Kepha ngemuva kweminyaka lesikhombisa, iMelika ayizange yehluleke kuphela kufeza imigomo yayo lebeyilindzelekile, kepha ilahlekelwe kakhulu, tinkinga, futsi yaveta tintsambo tayo letingubo. Impi yekuhwebelana yaseMelika inemonakalo lomncane eChina, kepha umonakalo waseMelika yona ngekwawo wendlule kakhulu loko lokulindzelwe bantfu baseMelika, lokubonakala ngalokukhetsekile kuletintfo letilandzelako.

Kwekucala, bosopolitiki baseMelika bahluphekile ngekushaywa kwengcondvo lokungakaze kubonwe. Kuyo yonkhe imphi yekuhweba, kuhwebelana kweChina nemave angaphandle kwentiwe ncono jikelele, futsi kungashiwo kutsi nangabe imphi ikhula, iyacina. Ngaphandle kwemtselela wekucala wemphi yekuhwebelana ekutfumeleni ngaphandle, inchubomgomo yekusimamisa kuhwebelana kwangaphandle kweChina idlale indzima esikhatsini lesifishane kakhulu. Ngekucinisa kubambisana nekushintjana nemapulatifomu netindlela letifana ne-RCEP, i-Belt and Road Initiative, kanye nemave e-BRICS, iChina isheshe yavala igebe lekuncipha kwekuhwebelana ne-United States, futsi beyisolo ichubekela embili yonkhe indlela, ngekuhwebelana nemave angaphandle kuchubeka nekukhula umnyaka ngemnyaka. Imininingwane lesemtsetfweni ikhombisa kutsi tintfo letitfunyelwa ngaphandle kwetintfo taseChina titawufika ku-25 trillion yuan nga-2024, futsi insali yayo yekuhweba itawudlula tigidzigidzi letingu-1 temadola aseMelika, lokungesiko kuphela lokukhulu kakhulu ekutfumeleni iChina emaveni langaphandle, kepha futsi lokukhulu kakhulu ekuhwebeni kwemhlaba. Kulempi yekuhwebelana, ngakulolunye luhlangotsi, bantfu baseMelika babona sikhundla sabo esabelo sekuhwebelana saseChina nemave angaphandle sehla ngekushesha. Ngakulolunye luhlangotsi, ngekubona kutsi kuhwebelana kweChina nemave angaphandle kuyakhula, bosopolitiki baseMelika bayadideka, futsi kukhatsateka kwengcondvo kanye nekushaywa labahluphekile akukaze kube khona.

Kwesibili, lizinga lekwenyuka kwemali eMelika lidvonswe futsi kumatima kulinciphisa, lokubangele kulimala lokukhulu kubantfu baseMelika. Impi yekuhwebelana leyasungulwa nguTrump kanye nemlandzeli wakhe Biden ngekumelene neChina yetfulwa ngesikhatsi sekungabi khona kwekufaka esikhundleni setimboni eMelika. Noma nje iMelika isekele kakhulu kukhicita kanye nekukhicita eMexico, eNdiya, eVietnam kanye nalamanye emave kute kutsi kutsatfwe sikhundla semikhicito yaseShayina, tincenye letiyinhloko temboni yekukhicita kulamave tincike kakhulu ekuniketeni umjikeleto wetimboni taseShayina. Empeleni, litsemba laseMelika lekufaka esikhundleni setintfo letibuya kulamanye emave eNdiya, eVietnam naseMexico libale kabi kakhulu. Umjikeleto wetimboni taseChina awuzange utsintseke kakhulu ngemphi yekuhwebelana leyetfulwe yiMelika. Ngalokwehlukile, ematharifi labekwe yi-United States ngalokucondzile nalokungacondzile kuloko lokubuya eShayina ngalokuyinhloko kudluliselwa kubatsengi baseMelika, futsi sekube ngulesinye setizatfu letinkhulu tekwenyuka kwemali eMelika. Kusukela umbuso waTrump wetfula imphi yekuhwebelana neShayina, ikakhulukati kusukela kwacala lubhubhane lwe-COVID-19, lizinga lekwenyuka kwemali e-US belisolo likhuphuka kancane kancane, futsi konkhe sekubita kakhulu. Nanobe hulumende wase-US atsatse tinyatselo tekuvimbela letimbi kakhulu letifana nemazinga laphakeme entalo, lizinga lekwenyuka kwemazinga emali alikaze lifike esigabeni sekulawula. Bantfu baseMelika bakhononda kakhulu, futsi tinsolo letehlukahlukene kanye nekuhlukunyetwa kwahulumende waseMelika akupheli. Lo mphumela bewungalindzelekile nguhulumende waseMelika.

Kwesitsatfu, butsakatsaka beluhlelo lwetimboni tase-US buvetwe, futsi kushoda kwemboni yekukhicita sekubutsakatsaka kakhulu. Lenye yetinhloso tahulumende wase US kwetfula imphi yekuhweba bekukuheha imikhicito ibuyele eMelika futsi yente imboni yekukhicita yase Melika iphindze icine. Nanobe kunjalo, kwenteka lokwehlukile. Ngekwehlulela ngemiphumela yeminyaka lecishe ibe ngu-7 kusukela iMelika yetfula imphi yekuhweba, akusiko nje kutsi imboni yekukhicita ayikabuyeli eMelika, kepha umjikeleto wekucala wetimboni taseMelika nawo uphazamisekile. Luhlelo lwekuhlukanisa emaketanga etimboni emhlabeni wonkhe lolusebenta kahle lolwakhiwe ekucaleni tinkampani taseMelika luphazamisekile. Kutfola labanye baphakeli kudla sikhatsi futsi akukhoni kufinyelela lizinga kanye nekusebenta kahle kwemjikeleto wekuphakela wekucala. Ngetulu kwaloko, kungaciniseki lokuletfwe yimphi yekuhweba kuphindze futsi kwenta tinkampani letinyenti taseMelika kutsi tibe nekungabata ekwenteni tincumo letifana nekutjala imali kanye nekwandzisa, lokutsintsa kutfutfuka lokuzinzile kwesikhatsi lesidze kwemjikeleto wetimboni. Sibonelo, tinkampani letinyenti taseMelika titsembele kakhulu ekungenisweni lokubuya eChina kute titfole tintfo letiluhlata, tincenye, njll Tsatsa imboni ye-elekthronikhi njengesibonelo. I-China ngumkhiciti lomkhulu wetintfo letinyenti te-elekthronikhi. Lempi yekuhweba yenta kube matima kutsi tinkampani taseMelika letihlobene titfole kuphakelwa lokucinile, kukhulisa tindleko kanye nekuphazamisa inchubekelembili yekukhicita. Apple, sibonelo, ubhekene nekushoda kwekuphakelwa kwetincenye. Impi yekuhwebelana ivimbele kungeniswa kwetinkampani tasekhaya letikhicitako eMelika, lokuphindze futsi kwagcizelela kukhishwa kwembobo embonini yekukhicita yaseMelika ngesikhatsi semphi yekuhwebelana.

Kwesine, iMelika ilahlekelwe ngito tonkhe tindlela tayo tekubonisana etingcociswaneni neChina futsi seyibe nekungasebenti. Solo iChina yajoyina i-WTO nga-2001, i-United States ivame kusebentisa lokubitwa ngekutsi kungalingani ekuhwebeni kwe-Sino-US kusebentisa tinswinyo ku-China, kuphocelela i-China kutsi iyekelele futsi yente kuvumelana etindzaweni letinyenti, njengekufuna kubonga i-RMB ngisho nekucela i-China kutsi isite i-United States kutsi isuse inhlekelele yetimali. Kepha, esikhatsini lesengcile, tinswinyo taseMelika betikhuluma kakhulu kepha tingasebenti, futsi tinswinyo mbamba betincane, futsi tinzuzo iMelika leyatitfola eChina betitinkhulu kakhulu. Kepha, nga 2018, umbuso wa Trump wadzabula ngalokuphelele licembe lemkhiwane lahulumende wase US futsi watsatsa tinyatselo tekucindzetela tekuhweba letimbi kakhulu letingakaze tibonwe ngekumelene ne China, wetama kunciphisa kutfutfuka kwemboni yase China ngekuhweba. Ngemuva kwemphi yekuhwebelana, umbuso waTrump kanye nemlandzeli wawo, umbuso waBiden, nabo betfula imphi yetebucwepheshe kanye nemphi yetimali neChina, futsi balandzelela futsi bavimba tinkampani tebuchwepheshe taseShayina emhlabeni wonkhe. Kute kube ngumanje, lisu lekuvimbela lemukelwe yiMelika ngekumelene neChina kungashiwo kutsi alikho, futsi sekudlalwe emakhadi e-trump. Kute sicelo sekubonisana lesisele. Ekugcineni, tinyatselo tekuhlasela nekulimata kuphela letingatsatfwa yiMelika ngekumelene neChina kuhlambalata umbono wesive kanye nekubeka emadimoni, kepha tiphindze tilungiswe ngamunye ngamunye ngumtsetfomgomo waseChina wekungabi ne-visa. Nyalo, ngemuva kweminyaka lengetulu kwalesikhombisa yetimphi tekuhweba, timphi tebuchwepheshe, timphi tetimali, kanye netimphi temibono yemmango, hulumende waseMelika uvele watfola kutsi sewusuke ekubeni nesibindzi sekucala waya ekubeni ngumuntfu longenti lutfo nakabhekene neShayina.

Impi yetebucwepheshe inemitselela lemikhulu kangakanani eMelika?

Nga-2018, ngemuva kwekutsi hulumende wase-US etfule imphi yekuhweba neShayina, ngekushesha wetfula imphi yetebucwepheshe futsi wahlanganyela nebalingani bakhe kuvimba tinkampani tebuchwepheshe taseShayina emhlabeni wonkhe. Impi yetebucwepheshe leyasungulwa yi-United States neShayina seyitsatse iminyaka lengetulu kwalesitfupha, futsi beyisolo ikhula, kepha lizinga lekutfutfuka kwetebucwepheshe eShayina alizange lime, kepha belisolo liya ngesivinini lesikhulu. Ngalokwehlukile, kutfutfukiswa kwebuchwepheshe baseMelika siqu kutsintseke kakhulu.

Kwekucala, inzuzo yebuchwephesha yaseMelika seyibutsakatsaka. Ngenca yetinyatselo tekuvimbela letitsatfwe yiMelika ngekumelene neShayina, lamave lamabili akakhoni kukhulumisana ngesayensi netebucwepheshe. Ngakulolunye luhlangotsi, kukhutsate ematfuba ekusungulwa kwetintfo letinsha kanye nekucala emabhizinisi ahulumende waseShayina kanye nemabhizinisi, futsi kwenta imphumelelo lenkhulu ekusunguleni tebuchwepheshe baseShayina kuto tonkhe tincenye. Ngakulolunye luhlangotsi, i-United States ilahlekelwe ngesikhatsi ibhekene nenchubekelembili lesheshako yetebucwepheshe yaseChina. Eminyakeni lengu 20 leyengcile, iMelika beyinetintfo leticishe tibe nato tonkhe tinzuzo tebuchwepheshe ngetulu kweChina, kepha lamuhla, iChina ifinyelele kubamba ngekushesha futsi ngisho nekwendlula iMelika emikhakheni leminyenti yekusungulwa kwetebucwepheshe. Namuhla, ngaphandle kwemasimu lambalwa lasetulu lahamba ngetikhatsi letitsite, iMelika isagcina tinzuzo tayo, futsi cishe tonkhe letinye tincenye tiboshwe ngebuchwepheshe baseShayina. Akusiko nje kutsi i-United States ayikhoni kucatsanisa ne-China etindzaweni letifana nesitimela lesihamba ngesivinini lesikhulu, kwakha imikhumbi, gezi, kanye netimoto letinsha temandla, kepha ngisho nemkhakha we-aerospace, lotigcabha kakhulu nge-United States emhlabeni wonkhe, sewudlulwe yi-China. Emkhakheni wema-chip lapho khona i-United States beyisolo ihola khona, ngaphandle kwema-chip lambalwa lasetulu lasenenzuzo, letinye timboni tema-chip letisemkhatsini naletiphansi kanye netimakethe ticishe tilawulwe yi-China. Ngisho ne Boston Dynamics, lebeyitfutfukisa tinja temarobhothi emashumi eminyaka, seyivele idlulwe yi Yushu Technology yase China. I-China ne-United States bahlanganyela empini yekudonsa emkhakheni webuhlakani lobufakelwako, kepha ngekuvela kwe-DeepSeek, simo siyagucuka ngendlela leya ngekuya ivuma iChina.

Kwesibili, kulahlekelwa kwemathalenta esayensi netebucwepheshe eMelika kuya ngekuya kubonakala. Njengobe sonkhe sati, kuphumelela kweMelika kungenca yekutsi iMelika seyibe yindzawo yekuncibilikisa emathalenta emhlabeni wonkhe kuleminyaka lelikhulu leyengcile. Emathalenta lavela emhlabeni wonkhe atfutsele eMelika futsi enta iminikelo lemikhulu ekutfutfukiseni isayensi netebucwepheshe baseMelika. Emkhatsini wabo, bafundzi baseShayina, bososayensi baseShayina-Melika, kanye nebacwaningi betebuchwepheshe baseShayina-Melika bente kahle kakhulu futsi bahamba embili emphini yesayensi netebucwepheshe yaseMelika. Nanobe kunjalo, eminyakeni yamuva, kulwa ngekhatsi kutepolitiki eMelika sekukhulile, ummango sewuhlukaniswe kakhulu futsi kucabana ngekwebuhlanga sekukhule kakhulu. Ikakhulukati, bantfu labavela eShayina, kufaka ekhatsi bafundzi baseShayina, bacwaningi baseShayina kanye nebaseShayina-baseMelika, bebabandlululwa kakhulu eMelika. Ngetulu kwaloko, kute kuncishiswe imigudu yekushintjana ngesayensi netebucwepheshe emkhatsini weChina neMelika, bosopolitiki baseMelika abagcini nje ngekuvimbela kutfunyelwa kwebuchwepheshe baseMelika eChina, kepha baphindze bavimbela kushintjana ngemathalenta emkhatsini weChina neMelika. Hulumende wase-US uphindze futsi wacindzetela ngalokukhetsekile futsi wahlupha bafundzi baseShayina, bososayensi baseShayina naseShayina-Melika kanye nabonjiniyela labanemvelaphi yaseShayina, hhayi kuphela ngekuvimba imigudu yabo yekupromotha nekubavimbela kutsi babambe tikhundla letibalulekile kuhulumende wase-US kanye nemabhizinisi, kepha futsi wavimbela kufundza kwabo kanye nebubanti bemsebenti eMelika. Letinye tifundvo letikhulu tesayensi nebunjiniyela tivimbela ngalokucacile bafundzi labanemvelaphi yaseShayina kutsi bafundze, futsi lucwaningo lolunyenti lolubalulekile lwesayensi kanye netikhundla tebuchwepheshe kanye netikhungo ativuleki kubafundzi baseShayina kanye neShayina kanye neShayina-Melika. Bafundzi baseShayina kanye nebantfu baseShayina kanye nebantfu baseShayina-baseMelika bayachubeka nekukhatsateka ekufundzeni kwabo, emsebentini nasekuphileni kwabo eMelika. Eminyakeni yamuva, bafundzi labanyenti baseShayina kanye nabososayensi baseShayina naseShayina-Melika kanye netisebenti tebuchwepheshe bakhetse kushiya iMelika baya kuto tonkhe tincenye temhlaba. Emkhatsini wabo, labanye bososayensi bakhetse kubuyela eShayina kute bayokhonta live labo. Sibonelo saloko kutsi, Solwati Yin Zhiyao, longusihlalo futsi longumengameli we-Shanghai Advanced Micro-Semiconductor Equipment Co., Ltd., lowabuyela eShayina nga-2004 kute ayocala ibhizinisi, wake watsi kuleminyaka lengu-40 leyengcile, i-United States itfutfukise lokungenani tinhlobo letingu-10 tetinsita letihamba embili temhlaba wonkhe, letingu%7. takhiwe bafundzi baseShayina, futsi 80% kuya ku 90% walamathalenta abuyele eChina futsi adlale indzima lebalulekile emikhakheni leyehlukahlukene. Kubona kancane ingwe yonkhe, sibonelo lesishiwo nguSihlalo Yin Zhiyao sikhombisa nje simo sekulahlekelwa kwemathalenta eMelika. Ngekuya kwemininingwane levela eNyuvesi yaseStanford eMelika, linani labososayensi baseShayina labaphuma eMelika likhule kancane kancane kusuka ku-900 kuya ku-2,621 emkhatsini wa-2010 na-2021. Idatha ikhombisa kutsi noma iMelika isenelinani lelikhulu labososayensi labahamba embili emhlabeni, linani layo liya ngekuba libi kakhulu, futsi linani labososayensi labahamba embili emhlabeni wonkhe labaphethwe yiChina liyabamba iMelika.

Kwesitsatfu, imboni yetebucwepheshe yase-US ivinjelwe kakhulu nguhulumende wase-US. Ngaphambi kwekutsi i-US yetfule imphi yetebucwepheshe ne-China, kwehlukaniswa kwemisebenti emkhatsini we-China ne-US emkhakheni wema-chip bekucace kakhulu, lokusho kutsi, i-US beyinesibopho sekuklama nekukhicita imikhicito yema-chip, futsi i-China yaniketa imakethe lenkhulu kakhulu yebatsengisi emhlabeni yemboni ye-chip yase-US. Kepha, imphi yetebucwepheshe leyasungulwa yi-US ngekulwa neChina yaphula lephethini. Kute kuncishiswe kutfutfuka kwemboni yema-chip yaseChina, i-US yemukele tinyatselo letifana nekwakha libala lelincane lelinetibondza letiphakeme kanye nekuvimbela kutfunyelwa kwema-chip lasesigabeni lesiphakeme eChina. Lesinyatselo asigcini nje ngekuphocelela iChina kutsi isebente kamatima, itimele, futsi itimele emkhakheni wema-chip, kepha yaphindze futsi yehlukanisa ngalokuphelele imakethe lenkhulu yebatsengisi yaseChina nemboni yema-chip yase-US, yashiya tinkampani tema-chip tase-US tite lutfo ngaphandle kwekububula emakethe yebatsengisi yaseChina. Noma ngabe tinkampani tase-US te-chip tine-chips lehamba embili lehamba embili kunebuchwepheshe baseShayina, ngenca yekungabi khona kwemakhasimende lanele emakethe yaseShayina, loku lokubitwa ngekutsi ngema-chips lahamba embili aseMelika sekulahlekelwe yinzuzo yato futsi kungaba yimihlobiso kuphela. Solo i-United States yetfula imphi yetebucwepheshe neChina, imboni yetebucwepheshe yaseChina, lemelelwe yimboni yema-chip, ayigcini nje ngekungashaywa kakhulu, kepha seyicinile futsi icinile. Ema-chips aseChina latikhicitako kuwo onkhe emazinga, kufaka ekhatsi lasemkhatsini, laphakeme nalaphansi, akagcinanga ngekuhlangabetana kakhulu nesidzingo semakethe yasekhaya, kepha futsi abone kukhula lokukhulu kwekutfumela ngaphandle kwaminyaka yonkhe. Nga-2024, kutfunyelwa kwema-chip aseChina kwedlula i-yuan trillion yinye, lokumangalise umhlaba wonkhe. Ngalokwehlukile, inzuzo yemboni yema-chip kanye nelinani lebakhiciti bema-chip eMelika yehle kakhulu, yalahlekelwa kakhulu, futsi ayizange ibe nemandla ekutfutfukisa. Idatha ikhombisa kutsi i-Intel, inkampani leyatiwako yema-chip eMelika, beyinemali lengenako yemnyaka lengetigidzigidzi letinge-US$54.228 nga-2023, kwehla ngemnyaka nga-14.00%, kanye nenzuzo lephelele yetigidzigidzi letinge-US$1.689, kwehla ngemnyaka nga-78.92%. Ngekota yesibili ya-2024, imali lengenako ye-Intel beyitigidzigidzi letinge-US$12.833, kwehla ngemnyaka ngemnyaka nga-0.90%; kulahlekelwa kwayo lokuphelele bekutigidzigidzi letinge-US$1.610, lokuphambene kakhulu nenzuzo yayo yetigidzigidzi letinge-US$1.5 ngesikhatsi lesifanako sa-2023. Ngekota yesitsatfu ya-2024, imali lengenako ye-Intel beyitigidzigidzi letinge-US$13.284, kwehla ngemnyaka ngemnyaka nga-6.17%; kulahlekelwa kwayo lokuphelele bekutigidzigidzi letinge-US$16.639, kwehla ngemnyaka nga-5702.36%. Kulesinye sibonelo, i-Qualcomm, lomunye umkhiciti wema-chip eMelika, ngekuyinhloko walahlekelwa yimakethe yaseShayina ekucaleni kwa-2023 ngenca yekwandziswa kwe-United States kwemikhawulo yekutfumela ema-chip ngaphandle, futsi iChina ngumtfombo wemali lengetulu kwa-60% yayo. Inzuzo lenethi ye-Qualcomm ekoteni yesibili ya-2023 yehle nga-52% ngemnyaka ngemnyaka, yabeka lizinga leliphansi kakhulu emlandvweni eminyakeni yamuva. Intel ne Qualcomm bafana nalesi, futsi Nvidia ne AMD akusiyo ngaphandle. Bayi microcosm yonkhe imboni US chip okwamanje. Impi yetebucwepheshe leyetfulwa nguhulumende waseMelika yente kutsi balahlekelwe yimakethe yaseShayina, ngaleyondlela balahlekelwe ngumtfombo wabo wenzuzo kanye nesisusa sekuchubeka nekutfutfuka. Impi yetebucwepheshe leyetfulwa yiMelika ngekulwa neChina yente umonakalo lomncane eChina, kepha kuhlukunyetwa lokubangelwe tinkampani tebuchwepheshe taseMelika kuyabonakala ngemehlo.

Impi yetimali inemtselela lomkhulu kangakanani eMelika?

Esu laseMelika lekuvimbela iChina, kwetfula imphi yetimali kusikhali lesibi kakhulu sekuhlasela. I-United States ihlose kwetfula imphi yetimali neChina, kuqhumisa tindlu taseShayina, kufinyeta i-RMB, kanye nekucindzetela imakethe yemasheya yaseShayina, kute kufinyelelwe umgomo wekuvimbela kutfutfuka kwemnotfo waseShayina ngesikhatsi kuvunwa timphahla taseShayina.

Kusukela inchubo yekuvulwa kwe-akhawunti yemali lenkhulu ye-RMB beyisenchubeni lehamba kancane kancane lelawulwa nguhulumende waseShayina, futsi hulumende waseShayina wakhe umlilo locinile wetetimali, imakethe yetetimali yaseShayina kungashiwo kutsi ayihlaselwa. Ngalesikhatsi, kusebenta kwekuhlaselwa kwetimali kwe-United States eChina kuncane kakhulu, futsi ngisho nangetindlela letinyenti kuphambene ngalokuphelele naloko i-United States lebeyikulindzele. Kungashiwo kutsi iMelika itidubule elunyaweni.

Ngesikhatsi semakethe yetindlu lekhulako eShayina, bantfu babona kutsi i-United States yachubeka nekwandzisa emabhondi ayo langesheya kwetilwandle etinkampanini tetindlu taseShayina ngekusebentisa loko lokubitwa ngekutsi tikhungo tetetimali temave emhlaba letilawulwako, izama kugubha imigodzi futsi yenta ticupho tetikweleti tetinkampani tetindlu taseShayina. Kepha, hulumende waseShayina bekavele abiketele imakethe yetindlu yasekhaya futsi bekatsatse luchungechunge lwetinyatselo tekulawula letiphikisana nemjikeleto ngesikhatsi sekukhula kwemakethe yetindlu. Emkhatsini wato, letinye tinkampani letinkhulu tasekhaya tekutsengisa tindlu tavinjelwa kutsi tikhule ngekungaboni emaveni langesheya kwetilwandle ngetikweleti kanye naletinye tindlela, ngaleyo ndlela kugwenywe kubhidlika lokungenteka kwemakethe yetindlu yaseShayina ngenca yeticupho tetikweleti tangesheya kwetilwandle. Sibonelo, kute kufinyetwe imakethe yemasheya aseShayina, ngakulolunye luhlangotsi, iMelika yasebentisa luphenyo lolungakafaneli ngemasheya emcondvo aseShayina futsi yakhipha imibiko lengakalungi yekucindzetela tinkampani taseShayina letibhalwe eMelika, ngaleyo ndlela idvonsele phansi imakethe yemasheya e-A. Ngakulolunye luhlangotsi, i-United States, ngekusebentisa lamanye ema-ejensi ekulinganisa emave emhlaba lalawulwa yi-United States, yakhipha luchungechunge lwemibiko lengakalungi lengemanga lebeyihlasela umnotfo waseShayina, tinkampani taseShayina kanye nemakethe yemasheya, yetama kudukisa batjalimali bemave emhlaba kutsi baphume emakethe yemasheya yaseShayina. Kepha-ke, kusebenta lokuvelele kwemnotfo waseShayina, lokunguwona kuphela emhlabeni, kudzabule licebo lase-US lekufinyeta imakethe ye-A-share. Ngesikhatsi lesifanako, imakethe ye-A-share inkhulu futsi inebatjalimali labanyenti. Ngetulu kwaloko, tinhloso taSima Zhao wase-US tatiwa nguwo wonkhe umuntfu. Ngako-ke, umzamo wase-US wekufinyeta imakethe ye-A-share awuzange uphumelele. Imakethe yaseChina ye-A-share isasebenta ngendlela lehlelekile naletimele ngekuya kwesigci sayo kanye nendlela yayo.

Umcabango lomkhulu wekufisa kweMelika ekwetfuleni imphi yetimali neShayina kucindzetela lizinga lekushintjaniswa kwe-RMB ngedola lelinemandla, kute kutsi imunce imali yaseShayina futsi ivune timphahla taseShayina. I-United States ikholelwa kutsi uma nje ikhuphula emazinga entalo futsi idala ligagasi ledola, itawukhona kwenta imali lenkhulu levela emhlabeni wonkhe, kufaka ekhatsi iChina, igelete iye eMelika. Ngako-ke, kusukela ngaMashi 2022, iMelika icale umjikeleto lomusha wekunyuka kwemazinga entalo. Nanobe kunyuka kwelizinga lentalo lokumbalwa kwekucala kwabangela kwehla kwelizinga le-RMB, bekucishe kungabi nemtselela ekugeleteni kwemali lenkhulu yaseShayina. Ngenca yaloko, i-Federal Reserve yatsatsa kunyuka kwelizinga lentalo ngebudlova, lokuvumele i-United States kutsi igcine lizinga lentalo lelicishe libe ngu-6% iminyaka lemibili, lokwakha lizinga lelisha leliphakeme emlandvweni wekunyuka kwelizinga lentalo ye-Federal Reserve. Nanoma-nje kwehla kwelizinga lekushintjaniswa kwe-RMB kwake kwedlula 17% ngaphansi kwemtselela wekunyuka kwelizinga lentalo lelinebudlova le-Federal Reserve kanye nedola lelinemandla, loko i-United States lebeyingakulindzeli kutsi, ngekukhuluma ngekulinganisa, uma kucatsaniswa naletinye timali temave emhlaba, lizinga lekushintjaniswa kwe-RMB solo lingumholi lozinzile kakhulu. Lokudvumata kakhulu eMelika kutsi inhlokodolobha yaseShayina ayigcini nje ngekungageleli eMelika, kepha ihehe imali yemhlaba wonkhe kutsi ingene.Eminyakeni yamuva, iShayina ibe ngulelinye lemave laheha kakhulu lutjalomali lwenhlokodolobha lwangaphandle. Imakethe lenkhulu yaseChina, simo setepolitiki lesimile, intfutfuko lesheshako, emandla lamakhulu, kanye nesimo sebhizinisi lesikhulako nalesikhuliswako kwenta kutsi iChina ikhange kakhulu enhlokodolobha yemave emhlaba. Ngalesikhatsi, iChina ayizange ilandzele iMelika kuphela ekukhuphuleni emazinga entalo, kepha esikhundleni saloko yatsatsa kuncishiswa kwemazinga entalo ngendlela lephikisana neMelika. Umjikeleto wemnotfo waseShayina, inchubomgomo yemali yaseShayina, kanye nekuhamba kwemali yaseShayina akukatsintseki ngekunyuka lokukhulu kwelizinga lentalo yaseMelika kanye nemigomo lecinile yemadola.

Namuhla, idola lelinemandla alisasimami. Nga-2024, i-United States ngekungafuni itsatse sinyatselo sekunciphisa emazinga entalo, lokubeka i-United States enkingeni. Uma ngabe iMelika ingayekela kunciphisa emazinga entalo futsi ichubeke nekugcina emazinga entalo laphakeme, umtfwalo lomkhulu wemazinga entalo utawenta kube matima kutsi tinkampani taseMelika kanye nahulumende waseMelika bawutfwale. Tfola hulumende waseMelika njengesibonelo. Sikweleti sahulumende waseMelika lesikhona nyalo singetulu kwetigidzigidzi letingu-35 temadola aseMelika. Ngelizinga lentalo lelikhona nyalo, hulumende wase-US kumele asebentise imali lengafika kutigidzigidzi letimbili temadola aseMelika ngenzalo yetikweleti njalo ngemnyaka, kepha imali lengenako yetimali yahulumende waseMelika ngemnyaka ingamadola laseMelika langu-4 trillion kuphela. Tindleko letinkhulu tentalo setivele tingumtfwalo longabeketeleleki kuhulumende wase-US kanye netinkampani taseMelika, ngako-ke kunciphisa emazinga entalo kutawuba sinyatselo lesingenalusito se-Federal Reserve. Kepha, uma ngabe i-Fed ichubeka nekunciphisa emazinga entalo, idola lelicinile litawulahlekelwa sikhundla salo, futsi imali lenkhulu yemave emhlaba itawuphuma eMelika ngebunyenti, lokutawenta kutsi umnotfo wase-US uphume ingati. Uma sekuqhume ibhamuza ledola, kubusa kwedola kungenteka kungaphindze kuvune, futsi umtamo weMelika wekuvuna umhlaba ngekwakha ligagasi ledola kutawuba matima kuwenta.

Kungashiwo kutsi imphi yetimali leyasungulwa yiMelika ngekulwa neShayina inemtselela lomubi lomkhulu futsi lofinyelela khashane eMelika, futsi umtselela lomubi eMelika utawubonakala kakhulu njengobe umnotfo waseMelika wehla.