Chii chakaitika mushure mehondo yehupfumi yeUSA neChina?

(Yakadhindwazve kubva muakaundi yepamutemo yeOriental Finance Magazine, naYan Ansheng, mutevedzeri wesachigaro weHong Kong Journal Media Association.)

Kubva muna 2025, hondo yekutengeserana pakati peSino-US yakawedzera, uye mutambo uripo muminda yemitero, tekinoroji, uye maindasitiri waratidza mafambiro ekukakavadzana kwakasiyana-siyana. Mativi maviri aya akatanga kukakavadzana kwakasimba munzvimbo dzakakosha dzakadai sema semiconductors, mota itsva dzemagetsi, uye kurima. Musi wa2 Kubvumbi 2025, hurumende yeUS yakazivisa kuti yaizoisa "mutero wekuwirirana" pazvinhu zveChina zvinotumirwa kuUnited States, nemutero we34%. Pamwe chete nemutero we20% kubva muna 2018, mutero wakakwana wakasvika 54%. China haina kunaka zvakanyanya. Musi wa4 Kubvumbi, China yakakurumidza kuunza mutemo wemutero wekuwirirana we "34% kusvika 34%", ichiisa mutero we34% pazvinhu zvese zvinotengeswa kubva kuUnited States, zvinosanganisira zvigadzirwa zvekurima, simba, mota nedzimwe nzvimbo. Panguva imwe chete, China yakaisa masangano gumi nematanhatu eUS pane runyorwa rwekutonga kutumira kunze kwenyika, ichirambidza kutengeswa kwezvinhu zvinoshandiswa kaviri kwavari; uye yakabatanidza makambani gumi nerimwe pane runyorwa rwemasangano asina kuvimbika, ichivarambidza kuita mabasa ekutumira nekutumira kunze neChina. Pamusoro pezvo, China yakamisa zvitupa zvekutumira kunze kwemakambani matanhatu ekuUS zvigadzirwa zvekurima kuChina, uye yakaisa mitemo yekutumira kunze kwezvinhu zvepakati nezvinorema zvine chekuita nematombo asingasviki.

Kubva muchikamu chekupedzisira chehondo yekutengeserana pakati peSino neUS, tinogona kuona kuti matanho ekudzivirira ari kusimbiswa neChina. Saka, ndiani achakunda hondo yehupfumi pakati peSino neUS pakupedzisira? Hazvina kuoma kuwana mhedziso nekuongorora makwikwi ehupfumi pakati peSino neUS kubvira muna 2018.

Hondo yekutengeserana ine simba rakadii kuUnited States?

Muna 2018, hurumende yaTrump, iyo panguva iyoyo yaive purezidhendi weUS, yakatanga hondo yekutengeserana neChina, iyo yakanyanya kuoma panguva yehutongi hwaBiden. Zvisinei, makore manomwe gare gare, United States haina kungokundikana kuzadzisa zvinangwa zvayo zvaitarisirwa, asi yakarasikirwa zvikuru, matambudziko, uye yakafumura magaro ayo asina kupfeka. Hondo yekutengeserana yeUS yakakanganisa China zvishoma, asi kukuvara kweUnited States pachayo kwakapfuura zvakanyanya zvaitarisirwa nevaAmerica, izvo zvinoratidzwa zvakanyanya muzvikamu zvinotevera.

Chekutanga, vezvematongerwo enyika vekuAmerica vakatambura nepfungwa dzisina kumboitika. Munguva yese yehondo yekutengeserana, kutengeserana kwekunze kweChina kwakavandudzika zvakanyanya, uye zvinogona kutaurwa kuti kana hondo ikanyanya, ndipo painosimba. Kunze kwekukanganiswa kwekutanga kwehondo yekutengeserana kune zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, mutemo weChina wekugadzirisa kutengeserana kwekunze wakaita basa munguva pfupi. Nekusimbisa kushandira pamwe nekuchinjana nemapuratifomu nemaitiro akadai seRCEP, Belt and Road Initiative, nenyika dzeBRICS, China yakakurumidza kutsiva musiyano mukudzikira kwekutengeserana neUnited States, uye yave ichifambira mberi, kutengeserana kwekunze kuchiramba kuchikura gore negore. Data repamutemo rinoratidza kuti zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika neChina zvichasvika 25 trillion yuan muna 2024, uye huwandu hwayo hwekutengeserana huchapfuura 1 trillion US dollars, iyo isiri iyo chete yakakura muzvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika neChina, asiwo yakakura mukutengeserana kwepasi rose. Muhondo iyi yekutengeserana, kune rumwe rutivi, maAmerican vanoona chinzvimbo chavo mumugove wekutengeserana kwekunze kweChina uchidzikira nekukurumidza. Kune rumwe rutivi, vachiona kuti kutengeserana kwekunze kweChina kuri kubudirira, vezvematongerwo enyika vekuAmerica vanovhiringidzika, uye kuzvidya mwoyo kwepfungwa nekurohwa kwavakasangana nako hazvisati zvamboitika.

Chechipiri, mwero wekukwira kwemitengo muUnited States wamiswa uye zvakaoma kuudzikisa, izvo zvakakonzera kukuvara kukuru kuvanhu vekuAmerica. Hondo yekutengeserana yakatangwa naTrump nemutsivi wake Biden vachirwisa China yakatangwa nekuda kwekushaikwa kwekutsiva maindasitiri muUnited States. Kunyangwe United States yakatsigira zvakanyanya kugadzirwa nekugadzirwa kweMexico, India, Vietnam nedzimwe nyika kuitira kutsiva zvigadzirwa zveChina, zvikamu zvikuru zveindasitiri yekugadzira munyika idzi zvinoenderana zvakanyanya nekuwanikwa kwecheni yeindasitiri yeChina. Kutaura zvazviri, tariro yeUnited States yekutsiva zvinhu zvinopinzwa muIndia, Vietnam neMexico yakanganisa zvakanyanya. Cheni yeindasitiri yeChina haina kukanganiswa zvakanyanya nehondo yekutengeserana yakatangwa neUnited States. Kusiyana neizvi, mitero inoiswa neUnited States zvakananga uye zvisina kunanga pazvinhu zvinopinzwa muChina inopfuudzwa kune vatengi vekuAmerica, uye yave chimwe chezvikonzero zvikuru zvekukwira kwemitengo muUnited States. Kubva hurumende yaTrump yatanga hondo yekutengeserana neChina, kunyanya kubva pakatanga denda reCOVID-19, mwero wekukwira kwemitengo weUS uri kuramba uchikwira, uye zvese zvave kudhura zvakanyanya. Kunyangwe hurumende yeUS yakatora matanho akanyanya ekudzora mitengo yemubereko wakakwira, inflation rate haisati yasvika padanho rekutonga. Vanhu vekuAmerica vari kunyunyuta zvikuru, uye kupomerwa kwakasiyana-siyana nekushungurudzwa kuri kuitwa hurumende yeUS hakuna magumo. Mhedzisiro iyi yaisatarisirwa nehurumende yeUS.

Chechitatu, kushaya simba kwecheni yemaindasitiri eUS kwave pachena, uye zvikanganiso zveindasitiri yekugadzira zvave kutowedzera kuderera. Chimwe chezvinangwa zvehurumende yeUS kutanga hondo yekutengeserana kwaive kukwezva kugadzira zvinhu kuUnited States uye kuita kuti indasitiri yekugadzira yeUS isimbe zvakare. Zvisinei, zvakapesana zvakaitika. Kubva pamhedzisiro yemakore anoda kusvika manomwe kubva United States yatanga hondo yekutengeserana, indasitiri yekugadzira haina kungodzokera kuUnited States chete, asi cheni yemaindasitiri yekutanga yeUnited States yakanganiswawo. Sisitimu inoshanda yepasi rose yekuparadzanisa cheni yemaindasitiri yakavakwa nemakambani ekuAmerica yakakanganiswa. Kuwana vatengesi vemamwe mabasa kunotora nguva uye hakugone kuwana mhando uye kushanda zvakanaka kwecheni yekutanga yekugovera. Uyezve, kusava nechokwadi kwakakonzerwa nehondo yekutengeserana kwakaitawo kuti makambani mazhinji ekuAmerica atye kuita sarudzo dzakadai sekudyara nekuwedzera, zvichikanganisa kukura kwakagadzikana kwenguva refu kwecheni yemaindasitiri. Semuenzaniso, makambani mazhinji ekuAmerica anovimba zvakanyanya nekutenga zvinhu kubva kuChina kuti awane zvinhu, zvikamu, nezvimwewo. Tora indasitiri yemagetsi semuenzaniso. China ndiyo mugadziri mukuru wezvinhu zvakawanda zvemagetsi. Hondo yekutengeserana inoita kuti zviomere makambani ekuAmerica ane hukama kuwana zvigadzirwa zvakagadzikana, zvichiwedzera mitengo uye zvichikanganisa kufambira mberi kwekugadzira. Semuenzaniso, Apple iri kutarisana nekushomeka kwezvikamu zvezvigadzirwa. Hondo yekutengeserana yakadzivisa kupinzwa kwemakambani ekugadzira zvinhu muUnited States, izvo zvakaratidzawo kudzikira kweindasitiri yekugadzira zvinhu muUS muhondo yekutengeserana.

Chechina, United States yakarasikirwa nepfungwa dzayo dzese dzekutaurirana mukutaurirana neChina uye yave kuramba ichiita zvinhu zvishoma. Kubva China yakabatana neWTO muna 2001, United States yagara ichishandisa zvinonzi kusawirirana mukutengeserana kweSino-US kushandisa zvirango kuChina, zvichimanikidza China kuti ibvumirane uye iite zvibvumirano munzvimbo dzakawanda, dzakadai sekuda kuti RMB iwedzere kukosha uye kutokumbira China kuti ibatsire United States kubvisa dambudziko remari. Zvisinei, kare, zvirango zveUS zvaive zvikuru asi zvisina kushanda, uye zvirango chaizvo zvaive zvishoma, uye mabhenefiti akawanikwa neUnited States kubva kuChina aive makuru. Zvisinei, muna 2018, hurumende yaTrump yakabvisa zvachose hunhu hwehurumende yeUS ndokutora matanho ekumanikidza kutengeserana zvakanyanya kuChina, vachiedza kudzikamisa kufambira mberi kwemaindasitiri eChina kuburikidza nekutengeserana. Mushure mehondo yekutengeserana, hurumende yaTrump nemutsivi wayo, hurumende yaBiden, vakatangawo hondo yetekinoroji nehondo yemari kuChina, uye vakatevera nekubata makambani etekinoroji eChina pasi rese. Kusvika pari zvino, hurongwa hwekudzora hwakatorwa neUnited States kurwisa China hunogona kunzi hauna hunyengeri, uye makadhi ehurombo akatambwa. Hapana nzira yekukurukurirana yasara. Pakupedzisira, matanho ega ekurwisa nekukuvadza anogona kutorwa neUnited States kurwisa China ndeyekunyepedzera mafungiro evanhu uye kuita kuti vanhu vasatenderwe, asi anogadziriswawo rimwe nerimwe nemutemo weChina wekuti vanhu vasapinde muvhiza. Zvino, mushure memakore anopfuura manomwe ehondo dzekutengeserana, hondo dzetekinoroji, hondo dzemari, uye hondo dzemaonero evanhu, hurumende yeUS yangoerekana yaona kuti yave kubva pakuva munhu anokurumidza kuita zvinhu nekukurumidza kusvika pakusaita chinhu kana yatarisana neChina.

Hondo ye tekinoroji ine simba rakadii kuUnited States?

Muna 2018, mushure mekunge hurumende yeUS yatanga hondo yekutengeserana neChina, yakabva yatanga hondo yetekinoroji uye yakabatana nevatsigiri vayo kumisa makambani etekinoroji eChina pasi rese. Hondo yetekinoroji yakatangwa neUnited States kurwisa China yagara kwemakore anopfuura matanhatu, uye yave ichiramba ichiwedzera, asi kumhanya kwekuvandudzwa kwetekinoroji kweChina hakuna kumira, asi kwave kuchikurumidza uye nekukurumidza. Kusiyana neizvi, kukura kwetekinoroji yeUnited States kwakakanganiswa zvikuru.

Chekutanga, mukana weUnited States wehunyanzvi hwetekinoroji waderera. Nekuda kwematanho ekurambidza akatorwa neUnited States kurwisa China, nyika mbiri idzi hadzigone kutaurirana mune zvesainzi netekinoroji. Kune rumwe rutivi, zvakakurudzira mukana wekuvandudza nekuita mabhizinesi ehurumende yeChina nemabhizinesi, uye zvakaita budiriro huru mukuvandudza tekinoroji kweChina mune zvese. Kune rumwe rutivi, United States iri kurasikirwa nekufambira mberi kwehunyanzvi kweChina mune zvese. Makore makumi maviri apfuura, United States yaive nerubatsiro rwese rwetekinoroji kupfuura China, asi nhasi, China yawana mukana wekukurumidza uye kutopfuura United States muminda yakawanda yekuvandudza tekinoroji. Nhasi, kunze kweminda mishomanana yepamusoro-soro, United States ichiri kuchengetedza zvayakanakira, uye zvimwe zvese zvakabatana netekinoroji yeChina. United States haingokwanisi chete kuenzanisa neChina munzvimbo dzakadai senjanji dzinomhanya, kuvaka ngarava, magetsi, uye mota itsva dzemagetsi, asi kunyange munda wendege, uyo unonyanya kudada neUnited States pasi rose, wakakundwa neChina. Munzvimbo yemachipisi uko United States yagara ichitungamira, kunze kwemachipisi mashoma emhando yepamusoro achiri nebhenefiti, mamwe maindasitiri nemaindasitiri emachipisi emhando yepamusoro neakaderera anenge achitongwa neChina. Kunyangwe Boston Dynamics, iyo yave ichigadzira imbwa dzemarobhoti kwemakumi emakore, yakundwa ipapo ipapo neYushu Technology yeChina. China neUnited States vari muhondo yekukwikwidzana mumunda wehungwaru hwekugadzira, asi nekubuda kweDeepSeek, mamiriro acho ari kuchinja nenzira iri kuwedzera kufarira China.

Chechipiri, kurasikirwa kwematarenda esainzi netekinoroji muUnited States kuri kuramba kuchionekwa. Sezvatinoziva tese, kubudirira kweUnited States kunokonzerwa nekuti United States yave nyika ine matarenda akawanda pasi rose mumakore zana apfuura. Matarenda anobva kumativi ese epasi akatamira kuUnited States uye akapa mipiro mikuru mukusimudzira sainzi netekinoroji yeAmerica. Pakati pavo, vadzidzi vekuChina, masayendisiti ekuChina-America, nevaongorori vetekinoroji vekuChina-America vakaita zvakanakisisa uye ndivo vari pamberi peuto resainzi netekinoroji rekuAmerica. Zvisinei, mumakore achangopfuura, kurwisana kwezvematongerwo enyika muUnited States kwakawedzera, nzanga yakaparara zvakanyanya, uye kusawirirana kwemarudzi kwakawedzera. Kunyanya, vanhu vane dzinza rekuChina, kusanganisira vadzidzi vekuChina, vaongorori vekuChina neAmerica, vave vachinyanya kusarurana muUnited States. Uyezve, kuti vadzivise nzira dzekuchinjana kwesainzi netekinoroji pakati peChina neUnited States, vezvematongerwo enyika vekuAmerica havana kungoganhurira kutumira tekinoroji yekuAmerica kuChina, asiwo vakaganhurira kuchinjana kwematarenda pakati peChina neUnited States. Hurumende yeUS yakadzvinyirira nekutambudza vadzidzi vekuChina, masayendisiti ekuChina nekuAmerica ekuChina nemainjiniya vane ruzivo rwekuChina, kwete kungovhara nzira dzavo dzekukwidziridzwa uye kuvarambidza kubata zvinzvimbo zvakakosha muhurumende yeUS nemabhizinesi, asiwo kudzikamisa mukana wekudzidza kwavo nemabasa muUnited States. Mamwe masayendisiti esainzi nemainjiniya anorambidza pachena vadzidzi vane ruzivo rwekuChina kudzidza, uye nzvimbo dzakawanda dzakakosha dzekutsvagisa kwesainzi nehunyanzvi nemasangano hazvina kuvhurirwa vadzidzi vekuChina nevaChina vekuAmerica. Vadzidzi vekuChina nevaChina vekuAmerica vari kunetseka zvakanyanya mukudzidza kwavo, basa ravo nehupenyu hwavo muUnited States. Mumakore achangopfuura, vadzidzi vekuChina vakawanda nevasayendisiti vekuChina nekuAmerica vekuChina nevashandi vehunyanzvi vakasarudza kubva muUnited States vachienda kunzvimbo dzese dzepasi. Pakati pavo, mamwe masayendisiti akasarudza kudzokera kuChina kunoshandira nyika yavo. Semuenzaniso, Purofesa Yin Zhiyao, sachigaro uye mutungamiriri weShanghai Advanced Micro-Semiconductor Equipment Co., Ltd., vakadzokera kuChina muna 2004 kuzotanga bhizinesi, vakamboti mumakore makumi mana apfuura, United States yakagadzira mhando gumi dzemidziyo yemhando yepamusoro yepasi rose, 70% kusvika 80% yayo yakagadzirwa nevadzidzi vekuChina, uye 80% kusvika 90% yematarenda aya akadzokera kuChina uye akaita basa rakakosha muminda yakasiyana-siyana. Muenzaniso wataurwa naSachigaro Yin Zhiyao unoratidza mamiriro ekurasikirwa kwetarenda muUnited States. Sekureva kwedata kubva kuStanford University muUnited States, huwandu hwemasayendisiti ekuChina ari kusiya United States hwakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma kubva pa900 kusvika pa2,621 pakati pa2010 na2021. Ongororo yakaitwa nevezvenhau vekuUS inoratidza kuti pakati pemasayendisiti ekuChina anopfuura 1,300, 61% yavo vachiri kuda kusiya United States. Ruzivo runoratidza kuti kunyange hazvo United States ichine huwandu hukuru hwemasayendisiti epamusoro pasi rose, huwandu hwayo huri kuramba huchiipa, uye huwandu hwemasayendisiti epamusoro pasi rose ari pasi peChina huri kusvika padanho reUnited States.

Chechitatu, indasitiri yetekinoroji yeUS yakadzvinyirirwa zvakanyanya nehurumende yeUS. US isati yatanga hondo yetekinoroji neChina, kupatsanurwa kwevashandi pakati peChina neUS mumunda wezvipenyu zvechip kwaive pachena, kureva kuti, US ndiyo yaive nebasa rekugadzira nekugadzira zvigadzirwa zvechip, uye China yakapa musika mukuru wevatengi pasi rose weindasitiri yezvipenyu zvechip yeUS. Zvisinei, hondo yetekinoroji yakatangwa neUS kurwisa China yakaputsa maitiro aya. Kuti vadzivise kufambira mberi kweindasitiri yezvipenyu zvechip yeChina, US yakatora matanho akadai sekuvaka chivanze chidiki chine madziro marefu uye kurambidza kutumira machip emhando yepamusoro kuChina. Danho iri harina kungomanikidza China kushanda nesimba, kuzvivimba, uye kuzviriritira mumunda wezvipenyu zvechip, asiwo rakaparadzanisa zvachose musika mukuru wevatengi weChina neindasitiri yezvipenyu zvechip yeUS, zvichisiya makambani ezvipenyu zvechip eUS asina chimwe chinhu kunze kwekugomera musika wevatengi weChina. Kunyangwe makambani ezvipenyu zvechip eUS aine zvipenyu zvemhando yepamusoro zviri pamberi petekinoroji yeChina, nekuda kwekushaikwa kwevatengi vakakwana mumusika weChina, zvinonzi zvipenyu zvemhando yepamusoro zveUnited States zvakarasikirwa nepurofiti yazvo uye zvinogona kungove zvekushongedza chete. Kubva pakatanga hondo yetekinoroji neChina, indasitiri yetekinoroji yeChina, inomiririrwa neindasitiri yemachipisi, haina kungotambura zvakanyanya, asi yakawedzera kusimba. Machipisi anozvigadzira ega ega eChina pamatanho ese, kusanganisira epakati, epamusoro neakaderera, haana kungogutsa zvakanyanya kudiwa kwemusika wemuno, asiwo akaona kuwedzera kukuru kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika pagore. Muna 2024, kutengesa machipisi eChina kwakapfuura trillion imwe yeyuan, izvo zvakashamisa nyika. Kusiyana neizvi, purofiti yeindasitiri yemachipisi nevakawanda vagadziri vemachipisi muUnited States yakadzikira zvakanyanya, yarasikirwa zvakanyanya, uye yakashaya simba rekusimudzira. Data rinoratidza kuti Intel, kambani inozivikanwa yemachipisi muUnited States, yakawana mari yegore negore yeUS$54.228 bhiriyoni muna 2023, kudzikira kwegore negore kwe14.00%, uye purofiti yeUS$1.689 bhiriyoni, kudzikira kwegore negore kwe78.92%. Muchikamu chechipiri chegore ra2024, mari yaIntel yaive US$12.833 bhiriyoni, kudzikira kwegore negore kwe0.90%; kurasikirwa kwayo kwaive US$1.610 bhiriyoni, zvichipesana zvikuru nepurofiti yayo yeUS$1.5 bhiriyoni munguva imwecheteyo ya2023. Muchikamu chechitatu chegore ra2024, mari yaIntel yaive US$13.284 bhiriyoni, kudzikira kwegore negore kwe6.17%; kurasikirwa kwayo kwaive US$16.639 bhiriyoni, kudzikira kwegore negore kwe5702.36%. Semuenzaniso, Qualcomm, imwe kambani inogadzira machipisi muUnited States, yakarasikirwa nemusika weChina kutanga kwa2023 nekuda kwekuwedzera kweUnited States kwemitemo yekutengeswa kwemachipisi, uye China ndiyo inopa mari inopfuura 60% yemari yayo. Purofiti yaQualcomm muchikamu chechipiri chegore ra2023 yakaderera ne52% gore negore, zvichiisa pasi renhoroondo mumakore achangopfuura. Intel neQualcomm ndizvo zvakaita seizvi, uye Nvidia neAMD hazvisi zvakasiyana. Idzi idiki diki muindasitiri yese yeUS chip parizvino. Hondo yetekinoroji yakatangwa nehurumende yeUS yakaita kuti varasikirwe nemusika weChina, nokudaro vachirasikirwa nekwavanowana purofiti uye chikonzero chekuenderera mberi. Hondo yetekinoroji yakatangwa neUnited States vachirwisa China haina kukuvara kukuru kuChina, asi kukuvara kwakakonzerwa nemakambani etekinoroji ekuAmerica kunoonekwa nemaziso ese.

Hondo yemari ine simba rakadii kuUnited States?

Muhurongwa hweUnited States hwekudzora China, kutanga hondo yemari chombo chakaipisisa chekurwisa. United States ine chinangwa chekutanga hondo yemari kurwisa China, kuputitsa zvivakwa zveChina, kushayisa mari yeRMB, uye kudzvinyirira musika wemasheya weChina, kuitira kuti ibudirire chinangwa chekudzikisa kufambira mberi kwehupfumi hweChina uku ichiunganidza midziyo yeChina.

Sezvo maitiro ekuvhurwa kweakaundi yemari yeRMB ave ari muhurongwa hushoma nezvishoma hunodzorwa nehurumende yeChina, uye hurumende yeChina yakavaka firewall yakasimba yemari, musika wemari weChina unogona kunzi haugone kukundwa. Panyaya iyi, kushanda kwekurwisa kwemari kweUnited States kuChina kwakaderera zvikuru, uye kunyangwe munzira dzakawanda zvinopesana zvachose nezvaitarisirwa neUnited States. United States inogona kunzi yakazvipfura netsoka.

Munguva yemusika wezvivakwa muChina waikura, vanhu vakaona kuti United States yakaramba ichiwedzera mabhondi ayo emakambani ezvivakwa ekuChina kuburikidza nemasangano emari epasi rose aaidzora, ichiedza kuchera makomba nekugadzira misungo yezvikwereti kumakambani ezvivakwa ekuChina. Zvisinei, hurumende yeChina yakanga yatofanotaura nezvemusika wezvivakwa wemuno uye yakanga yatora matanho ekutonga anopesana nekukura kwemusika wezvivakwa. Pakati pavo, mamwe makambani makuru ezvivakwa emuno akarambidzwa kuwedzera mhiri kwemakungwa kuburikidza nezvikwereti nedzimwe nzira, nokudaro ichidzivirira kuparara kwemusika wezvivakwa wekuChina nekuda kwemisungo yezvikwereti zvekunze. Semuenzaniso, kuitira kuti musika wemasheya wekuChina udzikiswe, kune rumwe rutivi, United States yakashandisa kuferefeta kusina kukodzera pamasheya eChina uye yakaburitsa mishumo isina kunaka kudzvinyirira makambani ekuChina akanyorwa muUnited States, nokudaro ichidhonza musika weA-share. Kune rumwe rutivi, United States, kuburikidza nemamwe masangano epasi rose anoongorora mitengo aidzorwa neUnited States, yakaburitsa mishumo yakawanda yenhema isina kunaka pahupfumi hweChina, makambani ekuChina nemusika wemasheya, ichiedza kutsausa vanoisa mari vepasi rose kuti vabve mumusika wemasheya wekuChina. Zvisinei, kushanda zvakanaka kwehupfumi hweChina, iyo iriyo yega pasi rose, kwakakanganisa hurongwa hweUS hwekudzikisa musika weA-share. Panguva imwe chete, musika weA-share wakakura uye une vanoisa mari vakawanda. Pamusoro pezvo, zvinangwa zveSima Zhao wekuUS zvinozivikanwa nemunhu wese. Saka, kuedza kweUS kudzikisa musika weA-share hakuna kubudirira. Musika weA-share weChina uchiri kushanda nenzira yakarongeka uye yakazvimirira zvichienderana nemafambiro awo uye nzira dzawo.

Pfungwa huru yeUnited States mukutanga hondo yemari neChina ndeyekudzvinyirira mwero wekutsinhana kwemari weRMB kuburikidza nedhora rakasimba, kuitira kuti itore mari yeChina uye iwane pfuma yeChina. United States inotenda kuti chero bedzi ikakwidza mwero wemari uye ikagadzira mwero wemari, ichakwanisa kuita mari kubva pasi rese, kusanganisira China, ichienda kuUnited States. Saka, kutanga munaKurume 2022, United States yatanga kukwira kwemitengo yemubereko. Kunyangwe kukwira kwemitengo yemubereko kwekutanga kwakakonzera kudzikira kwemutengo weRMB, hazvina kukanganisa kufamba kwemari yeChina. Nekuda kweizvozvo, Federal Reserve yakakwidza mitengo yemubereko zvine chisimba, zvichibvumira United States kuchengetedza mwero wemubereko weinenge 6% kwemakore maviri, zvichigadzira kukwira kutsva munhoroondo yekuwedzera kwemitengo yemubereko kweFederal Reserve. Kunyangwe kudzikira kwemutengo weRMB exchange rate kwakambopfuura 17% nekuda kwekukwira kwemutengo wechikwereti zvine chisimba kweFederal Reserve uye dhora rakasimba, izvo United States yakanga isingatarisiri ndezvekuti, kana tichienzanisa nedzimwe mari dzepasi rose, mutengo weRMB exchange rate uchiri kutungamira zvakagadzikana. Chinonyanya kusuwisa United States ndechekuti capital yeChina haina kungoyerera chete kuUnited States, asi yakakwezva mari yepasi rose kuti iuye. Mumakore achangopfuura, China yave iri imwe yenyika dzinokwezva mari yakawanda yekudyara kunze kwenyika. Musika mukuru weChina, mamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika akagadzikana, budiriro inokurumidza, mukana mukuru, uye mamiriro ebhizinesi ari nani uye ari nani zvakaita kuti China iwedzere kukwezva mari yepasi rose. Pasinei neizvi, China haina kungotevera United States mukuwedzera mitengo yechikwereti, asi panzvimbo pezvo yakaderedza mitengo yechikwereti kune imwe nzira yeUnited States. Kutenderera kwehupfumi hweChina, mutemo wemari weChina, uye kufamba kwemari yeChina hazvina kukanganiswa nekukwira kukuru kwemutengo wechikwereti weUnited States uye mitemo yakasimba yemadhora.

Nhasi uno, dhora rakasimba harichagari kwenguva refu. Muna 2024, United States yakatora danho rekuderedza mitengo yemubereko, izvo zvinoisa United States mudambudziko. Kana United States ikarega kuderedza mitengo yemubereko uye ikaramba iine mitengo yemubereko yakakwira, mutoro wemubereko wakanyanya uchaita kuti zviomere makambani ekuAmerica nehurumende yeUS kutakura. Tora semuenzaniso wehurumende yeUS. Chikwereti chehurumende yeUS chakakwira kusvika ku35 trillion US dollars. Padanho remubereko razvino, hurumende yeUS inofanira kushandisa kusvika ku2 trillion US dollars pamubereko wechikwereti gore rega rega, asi mari inowanikwa nehurumende yeUS pagore i4 trillion US dollars chete. Mari yakawanda yemubereko yatove mutoro usingatsungiririki kuhurumende yeUS nemakambani ekuAmerica, saka kuderedza mitengo yemubereko kuchava danho risingabatsire neFederal Reserve. Zvisinei, kana Fed ikaramba ichideredza mitengo yemubereko, dhora rakasimba richarasikirwa nenzvimbo yaro, uye mari yepasi rose ichabuda muUnited States muhuwandu hwakawanda, zvichikonzera kuti hupfumi hweUS huderere. Kana dhora rabuda, kutonga kwedhora kungasazombodzoka, uye kuedza kweUnited States kukohwa nyika nekugadzira mwero wedhora kuchave kwakaoma kuita.

Zvinogona kutaurwa kuti hondo yemari yakatangwa neUnited States ichirwisa China ine mhedzisiro yakaipa yakakura uye yakakura kuUnited States, uye mhedzisiro yakaipa kuUnited States ichawedzera kuoneka sezvo hupfumi hweUS huchidzikira.