Chii chaive mhedzisiro yehondo yehupfumi yeUSA neChina?

(Yakadhindwazve kubva muakaundi yepamutemo yeOriental Finance Magazine, naYan Ansheng, mutevedzeri wasachigaro weHong Kong Journal Media Association.）

Kubva 2025, hondo yekutengeserana yeSino-US yakawedzera, uye mutambo muminda yemitero, tekinoroji, uye cheni dzemaindasitiri wakaratidza maitiro mazhinji-dimensional kutarisana. Mativi maviri aya akatanga kunetsana kunotyisa munzvimbo dzakakosha semiconductors, mota nyowani dzemagetsi, uye zvekurima. Musi waKubvumbi 2, 2025, hurumende yeUS yakazivisa kuti yaizotemera "mutero unodzokororwa" pazvinhu zveChinese zvinotumirwa kuUnited States, nemutero we34%. Yakasanganiswa ne20% mutero kubvira 2018, mutero wakakwana wemutero wakasvika 54%. China haisi nani zvakanyanya. Musi wa4 Kubvumbi, China yakakurumidza kuunza mutemo wemitero we "34% kusvika 34%", ichiisa mutero we34% pazvinhu zvese zvinotengwa kunze kwenyika zvinobva kuUnited States, zvinosanganisira zvigadzirwa zvekurima, simba, mota nezvimwe minda. Panguva imwecheteyo, China yakabatanidza masangano gumi nematanhatu eUS muhurongwa hwekutonga kunze kwenyika, ichirambidza kutengeswa kwezvinhu zviviri-zvekushandisa kwavari; uye yaisanganisira makambani gumi nerimwe murunyorwa rusingavimbike, achivarambidza kuita mabasa ekunze nekunze neChina. Pamusoro pezvo, China yakamisa magwaro ekutumira kunze kwemakambani matanhatu eUS kune zvigadzirwa zvekurima kuChina, uye yakadzika kudzora kunze kwenyika pazvinhu zvepakati uye zvinorema zvisingawanzo zvine chekuita nepasi.

Kubva pamazuva achangoburwa ehondo yekutengeserana yeSino-US, tinogona kuona kuti nhanho dzeChina dziri kuramba dzichiwedzera kusimba. Saka, ndiani achakunda muhondo yehupfumi yeSino-US pakupedzisira? Hazvina kuoma kuita mhedziso nekuongorora makwikwi ehupfumi eSino-US kubvira 2018.

Yakawanda sei iyo hondo yekutengeserana ine chekuita neUnited States?

Muna 2018, hutongi hwaTrump, panguva iyoyo mutungamiri weUS, akatanga hondo yekutengeserana neChina, iyo yakatonyanya kuoma panguva yehutongi hweBiden. Zvisinei, makore manomwe gare gare, United States haina kungokundikana kuzadzisa zvinangwa zvayo zvaitarisirwa, asi yakatambura kurasikirwa kukuru, matambudziko, uye yakafumura matako ayo asina kupfeka. Hondo yekutengeserana yeUS ine kukuvadza kushoma kuChina, asi kukuvadzwa kweUnited States pachayo kwakapfuura zvinotarisirwa neveAmerica, izvo zvinonyatso kuratidzwa mune zvinotevera.

Chekutanga, vezvematongerwo enyika vekuAmerica vakatambura nekurova kwepfungwa kusati kwamboitika. Munguva yese yehondo yekutengeserana, kutengeserana kweChina kune dzimwe nyika kwakavandudza zvachose, uye zvinogona kutaurwa kuti kana hondo yacho yakawanda, yakasimba. Kunze kwekukanganisa kwekutanga kwehondo yekutengeserana kune kunze kwenyika, mutemo weChina wekudzikamisa kutengeserana kwekunze wakaita basa munguva pfupi kwazvo. Nekusimbisa kushandira pamwe nekutsinhana nemapuratifomu uye nzira dzakadai seRCEP, Belt uye Road Initiative, uye nyika dzeBRICS, China yakakurumidza kugadzirisa gaka rekuderera kwekutengeserana neUnited States, uye yave kufambira mberi munzira yese, nekutengeserana kwekunze kuri kuramba kuchikura gore negore. Mashoko epamutemo anoratidza kuti China inotengeswa kunze kwenyika ichasvika 25 trillion yuan muna 2024, uye mari yayo yekutengeserana ichapfuura 1 trillion US madhora, iyo isiri iyo yakakura pane inotengeswa kunze kwenyika, asiwo yakakura mukutengeserana kwenyika. Muhondo iyi yekutengeserana, kune rumwe rutivi, vanhu vekuAmerica vanoona nzvimbo yavo muchikamu chekutengeserana kweChina ichiderera nekukurumidza. Kune rimwe divi, vachiona kuti kutengeserana kweChina kune dzimwe nyika kuri kuwedzera, vezvematongerwo enyika vekuAmerica vanoshamiswa, uye kushushikana kwepfungwa nekurova kwavakaita hazvisati zvamboitika.

Chechipiri, inflation yeUnited States yakasimudzwa uye zvakaoma kuidzikisa, izvo zvakonzera kukanganisa kukuru kuvanhu veAmerica. Hondo yekutengeserana yakatangwa naVaTrump nemutsivi wake Biden vachipokana neChina yakatangwa mumamiriro ekushaikwa kwekutsiva maindasitiri muUnited States. Kunyangwe United States yakatsigira zvakasimba kugadzirwa nekugadzirwa kweMexico, India, Vietnam nedzimwe nyika kuitira kutsiva zvigadzirwa zveChinese, izvo zvakakosha zveindasitiri yekugadzira munyika idzi zvinoenderana zvakanyanya nekupihwa kweChina maindasitiri. Muchokwadi, tariro yeUnited States yekuunza kunze kwenyika kuIndia, Vietnam neMexico haina kurongeka zvakanyanya. China indasitiri yemaindasitiri haina kukanganiswa zvakanyanya nehondo yekutengeserana yakatangwa neUnited States. Kusiyana neizvi, mitero yakatemerwa neUnited States zvakananga uye zvisina kunanga kune zveChinese kunze kwenyika zvinopfuudzwa kuvatengi veAmerica, uye yave chimwe chezvikonzero zvikuru zvekukwira kwemitengo kwakanyanya muUnited States. Kubva hutongi hwaTrump hwakatanga hondo yekutengeserana neChina, kunyanya kubva pakatanga denda reCCIDID-19, inflation yeUS iri kuramba ichikwira, uye zvese zvave kudhura. Kunyangwe hazvo hurumende yeUS yakatora matanho ezvekuchengetera zvinhu zvakanyanya senge mareti emari yakakwira, inflation haina kumbobvira yasvika padanho rekutonga. Vanhu vemuAmerica vari kuchema-chema zvikuru, uye kupomerana nekushungurudzwa kwakasiyana-siyana kuhurumende yeAmerica hazviperi. Izvi zvanga zvisingatarisirwe nehurumende yeAmerica.

Chechitatu, kushaya simba kweketani yeindasitiri yeUS kwakafumurwa, uye zvikanganiso zveindasitiri yekugadzira zvakatonyanya kusimba. Chimwe chezvinangwa zvehurumende yeUS kutanga hondo yekutengeserana kwaive kukwezva kugadzira kudzokera kuUnited States uye kuita kuti indasitiri yekugadzira yeUS isimbe zvakare. Zvisinei, zvakapesana zvakaitika. Tichitarisa kubva pamigumisiro yeanoda kusvika makore manomwe kubva United States yakatanga hondo yezvokutengeserana, kwete chete iyo indasitiri yekugadzira haina kudzokera kuUnited States, asi yekutanga indasitiri yeUnited States yakavhiringidzwa. Iyo inoshanda yepasi rose maindasitiri chain division system yakatanga kuvakwa nemakambani eAmerica yakavhiringwa. Kutsvaga vamwe vatengesi kunotora nguva uye hakugone kuwana mhando uye mutengo-unoshanda weiyo yekutanga yekugovera cheni. Zvakare, kusavimbika kwakaunzwa nehondo yekutengeserana kwaitawo kuti makambani mazhinji emuAmerica azengurire kuita sarudzo dzakaita sekudyara nekuwedzera, zvichikanganisa kusimudzira kwakasimba kwenguva refu kweketani yemaindasitiri. Semuenzaniso, makambani mazhinji eAmerica anovimba zvakanyanya nekutengesa kubva kuChina kune zvigadzirwa, zvikamu, nezvimwe. Tora indasitiri yemagetsi semuenzaniso. China ndiyo inonyanya kugadzira zvinhu zvakawanda zvemagetsi. Hondo yekutengeserana inoita kuti zviome kumakambani eAmerica ane hukama kuwana zvakagadzikana, kuwedzera mitengo uye kukanganisa kufambira mberi kwekugadzira. Apple, semuenzaniso, yakatarisana nekushomeka kwechikamu chekugovera. Hondo yekutengeserana yakatadzisa kutengwa kwemakambani ekugadzira epamba muUnited States, izvo zvakaratidza kuburitsa kunze kweindasitiri yekugadzira yeUS mumamiriro ehondo yekutengeserana.

Chechina, United States yakarasikirwa nemachipisi ayo ekutaurirana munhaurirano neChina uye yave kuwedzera kuita. Kubva China yakapinda muWTO muna 2001, United States yagara ichishandisa kunonzi kusaenzana mukutengeserana kweSino-US kuisa zvirango kuChina, zvichimanikidza China kuti iite chibvumirano munzvimbo dzakawanda, sekuda kukoshesa RMB uye kunyange kukumbira China kuti ibatsire United States kubvisa dambudziko remari. Zvakadaro, kare, zvirango zveUS zvainzwika asi zvisingashande, uye zvirango zvacho zvaive zvishoma, uye mabhenefiti akawanikwa neUnited States kubva kuChina aive akakura. Nekudaro, muna 2018, hutongi hwaTrump hwakadambura zvachose shizha remuonde rehurumende yeUS ndokutora matanho ekudzvinyirira ekutengesa asina kumboitika achipokana neChina, kuyedza kumisa kusimukira kweindasitiri yeChina kuburikidza nekutengeserana. Mushure mehondo yekutengeserana, hutongi hwaTrump pamwe nemutsivi wavo, hutongi hweBiden, vakatangawo hondo yehunyanzvi uye hondo yezvemari neChina, uye vakatevera nekubata makambani ehunyanzvi eChinese pasi rese. Parizvino, zano remidziyo rakatorwa neUnited States kurwisa China rinogona kunzi harina hunhu, uye makadhi ehwamanda akaridzwa. Hakuchina chipu chebargaining chasara. Mukupedzisira, nzira dzekurwisa nekukuvadza chete dzinogona kutorwa neUnited States kurwisa China ipfungwa dzeveruzhinji kusvibisa uye dhimoni, asi dzinogadziriswa chimwe nechimwe nemutemo weChina-yemahara. Ikozvino, mushure memakore anopfuura manomwe ehondo dzekutengeserana, hondo dzehunyanzvi, hondo dzemari, uye hondo dzepfungwa dzeveruzhinji, hurumende yeUS yakaerekana yaona kuti yabva pakuita zvechimbichimbi kusvika pakungotarisana neChina.

Yakawanda sei iyo hondo yehunyanzvi ine chekuita neUnited States?

Muna 2018, mushure mekunge hurumende yeUS yatanga hondo yekutengeserana neChina, yakabva yatanga hondo yehunyanzvi uye yakabatana nemapato ayo kuvharisa makambani ehunyanzvi eChina pasi rese. Hondo yehunyanzvi yakatangwa neUnited States kurwisa China yatora makore anopfuura matanhatu, uye yagara ichiwedzera, asi danho rekuvandudza tekinoroji yeChina harina kumira, asi rave kukurumidza uye nekukurumidza. Mukupesana, kuvandudzwa kwemichina yeUnited States pachayo kwakakanganiswa zvikuru.

Kutanga, mukana weUnited States wetekinoroji wakadzikiswa. Nekuda kwematanho ekuvharisa akatorwa neUnited States kurwisa China, nyika mbiri idzi hadzigone kutaurirana mune sainzi nehunyanzvi. Kune rimwe divi, yakamutsa mukana wekuvandudza uye bhizimusi rehurumende yeChina nemabhizinesi, uye yakaita budiriro huru mukuvandudza tekinoroji yeChina mumativi ese. Kune rimwe divi, United States iri kurasikirwa nekutarisana nekufambira mberi nekukurumidza kwehunyanzvi hweChina. Makore makumi maviri apfuura, United States yakange iine zvingangoita zvese zvakanaka zvetekinoroji pamusoro peChina, asi nhasi, China yakawana nekukurumidza kubata uye kunyange kupfuura United States mundima zhinji dzehunyanzvi hwekuvandudza tekinoroji. Nhasi, kunze kweminda mishoma yakakwira-yekupedzisira sporadic, United States ichiri kuchengetedza zvakanakira, uye zvinenge zvese zvimwe zvinhu zvakasungwa neChinese tekinoroji. Haisi iyo United States chete isingakwanise kuenzaniswa neChina munzvimbo dzakaita senjanji inomhanya kwazvo, kuvaka ngarava, magetsi, uye mota itsva dzemagetsi, asi kunyange nzvimbo yemuchadenga, iyo inodada zvikuru yeUnited States pasi rose, yakakundwa neChina. Mumunda wechip chip umo United States yagara ichitungamira, kunze kwemachipisi mashoma epamusoro-soro achine mukana, mamwe epakati uye akaderera-ekupedzisira chip maindasitiri uye misika inenge ichidzorwa neChina. Kunyangwe Boston Dynamics, iyo yanga ichigadzira imbwa dzemarobhoti kwemakumi emakore, yakapfuura nekuChina Yushu Technology. China neUnited States dziri kuita mhirizhonga mundima yehungwaru hwekugadzira, asi nekubuda kweDeepSeek, mamiriro ezvinhu ari kuitika nenzira iri kuwedzera kufarira China.

Chechipiri, kurasikirwa kwematarenda esainzi uye tekinoroji muUnited States kuri kuwedzera kuve pachena. Sezvatinoziva tese, budiriro yeUnited States imhaka yekuti United States yave kunyungudika pasi rose kwematarenda mumakore zana apfuura. Matarenda kubva kumativi ese enyika akatamira kuUnited States uye akaita mipiro mikuru mukusimudzira sainzi yeAmerica uye tekinoroji. Pakati pavo, vadzidzi veChinese, masayendisiti eChinese-America, uye Chinese-American tekinoroji vaongorori vakaita zvakanakisa uye ndivo vekutanga veAmerican sainzi uye tekinoroji uto. Zvisinei, mumakore achangopfuura, kurwisana kwezvematongerwe enyika muUnited States kwakawedzera, nzanga yakakamukana zvikuru, uye kurwisana kwemadzinza kwakawedzera. Kunyanya, vanhu vekuChina, kusanganisira vadzidzi veChinese, maChinese neChina-America vaongorori, vanga vachinyanya kusarura muUnited States. Pamusoro pazvo, kuti vadzime nzira dzekutsinhana kwesainzi uye tekinoroji pakati peChina neUnited States, vezvematongerwo enyika vekuAmerica havana kungorambidza kutengesa tekinoroji yeAmerica kuChina, asi zvakare vakadzora kuchinjanisa matarenda pakati peChina neUnited States. Hurumende yeUS yakanyatso kudzvanyirira nekutambudza vadzidzi vekuChina, masayendisiti echiChinese neChina-America nemainjiniya ane maChina, kwete kungovharira nzira dzekusimudzira uye kuvarambidza kubata zvinzvimbo zvakakosha muhurumende yeUS nemabhizinesi, asi zvakare kuganhurira kudzidza kwavo uye chiyero chebasa muUnited States. Mamwe sainzi nehuinjiniya majors anorambidza zvakajeka vadzidzi vane maChinese mabviro kubva pakudzidza, uye kwakawanda kwakakosha kutsvagisa kwesainzi uye zvinzvimbo zvehunyanzvi uye zvikoro hazvina kuvhurika kuvadzidzi veChinese neChinese neChinese-America. Vadzidzi vechiChinese neChinese neChina-America vari kuwedzera kunetseka mukudzidza kwavo, basa uye hupenyu muUnited States. Mumakore achangopfuura, vadzidzi vakawanda vechiChina uye masayendisiti echiChinese neChina-America nevashandi vezvokugadzira zvinhu vakasarudza kubva muUnited States ndokuenda kumativi ose enyika. Pakati pavo, mamwe masayendisiti akasarudza kudzokera kuChina kunoshandira nyika yavo. Semuyenzaniso, Muzvinafundo Yin Zhiyao, sachigaro nemutungamiri weShanghai Advanced Micro-Semiconductor Equipment Co., Ltd., vakadzokera kuChina muna 2004 kunotanga bhizinesi, vakambotaura kuti mumakore makumi mana apfuura, United States yakagadzira dzinenge gumi mhando dzemhando dzepasi rose dzemhando yepamusoro semiconductor, 70% kusvika 80% yevadzidzi vakagadziridzwa ne9% yevadzidzi ava. akadzokera kuChina uye akaita basa rinokosha mundima dzakasiyana-siyana. Kuona ingwe yese, muenzaniso wakataurwa naSachigaro Yin Zhiyao unongoratidzira mamiriro ekurasikirwa kwetarenda muUnited States. Maererano neruzivo rwakabva kuStanford University kuUnited States, nhamba yenyanzvi dzesainzi dzekuChina dziri kubva kuUnited States dzakaramba dzichiwedzera kubva pa900 kuenda pa2 621 pakati pa2010 na2021. Ongororo yakaitwa nevezvenhau vekuAmerica inoratidza kuti pakati pemasayendisiti ekuChina anodarika chiuru nemazana matatu, 61% yavo ichiri kuda kubuda muAmerica. Mashoko anoratidza kuti kunyange hazvo United States ichiri nenhamba huru yenyanzvi dzesainzi dzepamusoro pasi rose, huwandu hwayo huri kuramba huchiwedzera, uye huwandu hwenyanzvi dzesainzi dzepamusoro pasi rose dziri pasi peChina huri kubata United States.

Chechitatu, iyo US tekinoroji indasitiri inomanikidzwa zvakanyanya nehurumende yeUS. US isati yatanga hondo yekombiyuta kurwisana neChina, kupatsanurwa kwebasa pakati peChina neU. Nekudaro, iyo tekinoroji hondo yakatangwa neUS kurwisa China yakatyora iyi maitiro. Nekuda kumisa kusimukira kweindasitiri yemachips ekuChina, US yakatora matanho akaita sekuvaka chivanze chidiki chine madziro akareba uye kurambidza kutengeswa kunze kwenyika machipisi emhando yepamusoro kuChina. Kutama uku hakuna kungomanikidza China kushanda nesimba, kuzviriritira, uye kuzviriritira mumunda wechip, asi zvakare yakapatsanura zvachose musika mukuru wevatengi weChina kubva kuUS chip industry, zvichisiya makambani eUS chip asina chinhu kunze kwekugomera pamusika wevatengi weChina. Kunyangwe kana makambani ekuUS chip aine machipisi emberi ari pamberi pehunyanzvi hweChina, nekuda kwekushaikwa kwevatengi vakakwana mumusika weChinese, iwo anonzi machipisi epamusoro eUnited States akarasa purofiti uye anogona kungoita zvekushongedza. Sezvo United States yakatanga hondo yetekinoroji kurwisa China, indasitiri yehunyanzvi yeChina, inomiririrwa neindasitiri yechip, haina kungotambura nekurova kukuru, asi yakawedzera kusimba nekusimba. MaChina akazvigadzira ega machipisi pamatanho ese, anosanganisira epakati, akakwira uye akaderera, haana kungozadzisa zvakanyanya kudiwa kwemusika wepamba, asi zvakare akaona kuwedzera kukuru kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika pagore. Muna 2024, kutengesa kunze kweChina chip kwakapfuura bhiriyoni imwe yeyuan, izvo zvakashamisa pasirese. Mukupesana, purofiti yeindasitiri yemachip uye chiverengero chakati chevagadziri vemachipisi muUnited States yakaderera zvikuru, yakatambura kurasikirwa kukuru, uye kushaya simba rebudiriro. Dhata inoratidza kuti Intel, inozivikanwa chip kambani muUnited States, yaive nemari yegore negore yeUS $54.228 bhiriyoni muna 2023, gore-pa-gore kudzikira kwe14.00%, uye purofiti yeUS $ 1.689 bhiriyoni, gore-pa-gore kuderera kwe78.92%. Muchikamu chechipiri che2024, mari yeIntel yaive US $ 12.833 bhiriyoni, gore-pa-gore kuderera kwe0.90%; kurasikirwa kwayo kwakazara kwaiva US $ 1.610 bhiriyoni, zvakasiyana zvakanyanya nepurofiti yayo yeUS $ 1.5 bhiriyoni munguva imwechete ye2023. Muchikamu chechitatu che2024, mari yeIntel yaive US $ 13.284 bhiriyoni, gore negore kuderera kwe6.17%; kurasikirwa kwayo kwakasvika US$16.639 bhiriyoni, kuderera kwegore negore kwe5702.36%. Kune mumwe muenzaniso, Qualcomm, mumwe mugadziri we chip muUnited States, akarasikirwa nemusika weChinese kutanga kwa2023 nekuda kwekuwedzera kweUnited States kwezvirambidzo zvekutengesa kunze kwenyika, uye China ndiyo inodarika 60% yemari yayo. Qualcomm's mambure purofiti muchikamu chechipiri cha2023 yakadzikira 52% gore-pa-gore, ichiisa nhoroondo yakaderera mumakore achangopfuura. Intel neQualcomm vakaita seizvi, uye Nvidia ne AMD hazvisi izvo. Iwo microcosm yeUS chip indasitiri parizvino. Hondo yehunyanzvi yakatangwa nehurumende yeUS yakaita kuti varasikirwe nemusika weChina, nekudaro vachirasikirwa nekwavanoita purofiti uye kukurudzira kwekuwedzera budiriro. Hondo yehunyanzvi yakatangwa neUnited States ichipokana neChina ine kukuvara kushoma kuChina, asi kushungurudzika kwakakonzerwa nemakambani ehunyanzvi hweAmerica kunoonekwa nemeso.

Yakawanda sei iyo hondo yezvemari ine chekuita neUnited States?

MuUnited States 'containment strategy kurwisa China, kutanga hondo yemari chombo chakashata chekurwisa. America inoda kutanga hondo yezvemari neChina, kuparadza dzimba dzekuChina, kupfupisa RMB, uye kudzvanyirira musika wemasheya weChina, kuitira kuti vazadzikise chinangwa chekumisa kusimukira kwehupfumi hweChina vachikohwa midziyo yeChina.

Sezvo kuvhurwa kweiyo RMB capital account kwave kuita zvishoma nezvishoma kunodzorwa nehurumende yeChina, uye hurumende yeChina yakavaka moto wakasimba wemari, musika wemari weChina unogona kunzi haupindike. Zvichienderana nemamiriro ezvinhu aya, kushanda kwekurwiswa kwemari kweUnited States kuChina kune kushoma, uye kunyangwe munzira dzakawanda zvinopesana zvachose nezvaitarisirwa neUnited States. United States inogona kunzi yakazvipfura pachayo mutsoka.

Munguva yekukura kwemusika wezvivakwa muChina, vanhu vakaona kuti United States yakaramba ichiwedzera kubata kwayo zvisungo zvekumhiri kwemakungwa emakambani eChinese real estate kuburikidza neanonzi masangano emari epasi rose aaidzora, achiedza kuchera makomba nekugadzira misungo yezvikwereti kumakambani eChinese real estate. Nekudaro, hurumende yeChina yakanga yatofanotaura nezvemusika wedzimba uye yakanga yatora akateedzana ekupikisa-cyclical regulatory matanho pamusoro peiyo real estate market boom. Pakati pavo, mamwe makambani makuru ezvivakwa edzimba akarambidzwa kuwedzera hupofu mhiri kwemakungwa kuburikidza nechikwereti uye nedzimwe nzira, nekudaro kudzivirira kudonha kwemusika weChinese real estate nekuda kwemisungo yechikwereti chekunze. Semuyenzaniso, kuitira kupfupisa musika wemasheya weChinese, kune rumwe rutivi, United States yakashandisa kuferefeta kusingakodzeri pamusoro peChinese pfungwa stocks uye yakapa mishumo isingafadzi yekudzvinyirira makambani eChinese akanyorwa muUnited States, nekudaro ichikwevera pasi musika weA-share. Kune rimwe divi, United States, kuburikidza nemamwe masangano epasi rose anodzorwa neUnited States, yakapa nhevedzano yenhema mishumo yakaipa iyo yaive bearish pahupfumi hweChinese, makambani eChinese uye musika wemasheya, vachiedza kutsausa vatengesi vepasirese kuti vabve pamusika wemasheya weChinese. Nekudaro, kuita kwakanaka kwehupfumi hweChinese, inova ndiyo yega pasi rose, yakapwanya kurangana kweUS kupfupisa musika weA-share. Panguva imwecheteyo, iyo A-share musika yakakura uye ine vakawanda vanoisa mari. Pamusoro pezvo, zvinangwa zveUS Sima Zhao zvinonyatsozivikanwa kune wese munhu. Naizvozvo, kuedza kweUS kupfupisa musika weA-share hakuna kubudirira. Musika weChina weA-share uchiri kushanda zvakarongeka uye wakazvimiririra zvinoenderana nerwiyo rwayo uye mafambiro.

Pfungwa huru yekushuvira kweUnited States mukutanga hondo yemari neChina ndeyekudzvinyirira RMB exchange rate kuburikidza nedhora rakasimba, kuitira kuti itore mari yeChina uye kukohwa midziyo yeChina. IUnited States inotenda kuti chero bedzi ichisimudza zvikwereti uye inogadzira dhora, ichakwanisa kuita mari kubva kumativi ose enyika, kusanganisira China, kuyerera kuenda kuUnited States. Naizvozvo, kutanga kubva munaKurume 2022, United States yatanga denderedzwa idzva rekukwira kwemhindu. Kunyangwe mashoma ekutanga ekuwedzera mubereko akakonzera kudzikira kweRMB, ivo vaive vasina kukanganisa pakuyerera kweChinese capital. Nekuda kweizvozvo, iyo Federal Reserve yakatora mhirizhonga mubereko kukwira, ichibvumira United States kuchengetedza mubereko weinoda kusvika 6% kwemakore maviri, ichigadzira hutsva hwepamusoro munhoroondo yekukwira kwechimbadzo cheFederal Reserve. Kunyange zvazvo kuderera kweRMB exchange rate kwakambopfuura 17% pasi pesimba reFederal Reserve's chisimba chekufarira kukwira uye dhora rakasimba, izvo United States yakanga isingatarisiri ndeyekuti, kana ichienzaniswa nedzimwe mari dzepasi rose, RMB exchange rate ichiri mutungamiri akagadzikana. Chiri kunyanya kuodza mwoyo kuUnited States ndechekuti guta guru reChina harina kungoyerera richienda kuUnited States chete, asi rakwezva mari yepasi rose kuti ipinde mukati. Mumakore achangopfuura, China yanga iri imwe yenyika dziri kukwezva mari yekunze. Musika muhombe weChina, mamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika akagadzikana, kukurumidza kusimudzira, kugona kukuru, uye kuwedzera kuri nani uye kukwidziridzwa kwenzvimbo yebhizinesi zvakaita kuti China iwedzere kukwezva kune dzimwe nyika. Zvichienderana nemamiriro ezvinhu aya, China haina kungotevera United States mukusimudzira mubereko, asi yakatora mubereko wakadzikira mhiri kweUnited States. Kutenderera kwehupfumi hweChina, mutemo wemari weChina, uye mafambiro emari eChina hazvina kukanganiswa nekukwira kukuru kwemhindu yeUnited States uye mitemo yakasimba yemadhora.

Nhasi, dhora rakasimba harichagariki. Muna 2024, United States yakazengurira kutora danho rekudzikisa mhindu, izvo zvinoisa United States mudambudziko. Kana United States ikamira kutema mibairo uye ikaramba ichichengeta mibairo yakakwira, mutoro unorema wemubereko uchaita kuti zviomere makambani eAmerica nehurumende yeUS kutakura. Tora hurumende yeUS semuenzaniso. Chikwereti chehurumende yeAmerica pari zvino chakakwira kusvika pamakumi matatu neshanu emadhora ekuAmerica. Pari zvino, hurumende yeAmerica inofanirwa kushandisa mari inosvika 2 trillion US dollars pachikwereti gore rega rega, asi mari inowanikwa nehurumende yeAmerica pagore inosvika matrillion mana emadhora ekuAmerica. Mari yemumba yakakurisa yatove mutoro usingatsungirike kuhurumende yeUS nemakambani eAmerica, saka kucheka mhindu kuchave danho risingabatsiri neFederal Reserve. Zvisinei, kana Fed ikaramba ichideredza mhindu, dhora rakasimba richarasikirwa nechinzvimbo chayo, uye mari yepasi rose ichayerera kubva kuUnited States muhuwandu hwakawanda, zvichiita kuti hupfumi hweUnited States hubude ropa. Kamwe dhora rinoputika, dhora rehegemony rinogona kusazodzoka, uye kuedza kweUnited States kukohwa nyika nekugadzira dhora remvura kuchave kwakaoma kuita.

Zvinogona kutaurwa kuti hondo yezvemari yakatangwa neUnited States kurwisa China ine simba guru uye rinosvika kure kure kuUnited States, uye kukanganisa kuUnited States kuchawedzera kuoneka sezvo hupfumi hweUnited States huri kuderera.