USA nih China he sipuazi ral an dohnak nih zeidah a chuahpi?

(Hong Kong Journal Media Association i vice chairman Yan Ansheng nih Oriental Finance Magazine official account in chuah ṭhanmi a si.)

2025 thawk in, Sino-US chawlehnak ral cu a zual chin lengmang, cun ngunkhuai, thiamnak, le chawlehthalnak lei ah game nih a phunphun in i dohnak a langhter. Kaphnih nih semiconductor, thazaang thar mawtaw le lo tuahnak tibantuk a biapimi hmun hna ah fak ngai in an i phomh. April 2, 2025 ah US cozah nih Tuluk thilri US ah kuatmi cungah "reciprocal tariff" kan lak lai, ngunkhuai 34% in kan lak lai tiah thawng a thanh. 2018 thawk in 20% ngunkhuai he fonh ahcun, a dihlak ngunkhuai zat cu 54% a phan. China cu a tha deuh tuk lem lo. April 4 ah, Tuluk nih "34% in 34% tiang" tlukruannak ngunkhuai phunglam a hun chuahpi colh, loram thilri, thazaang, mawtaw le a dang thilri hna he aa pehtlaimi United States in a rami thilri vialte cung ah 34% ngunkhuai a lak. Cu lio caan te ah cun, China nih US company 16 cu ramdang kuatnak uknak cazin ah a telh hna, an sinah thilri hmannak pahnih kuat a kham hna; cun zumhawktlak lomi company cazin ah company 11 a telh hna, Tuluk he thilri luhternak le chuahnak riantuannak ah i tel lo dingin a kham hna. Cun, Tuluk nih US company 6 hna cu Tuluk ram ah loram thilri kuatnak thiamnak a ngolter hna, cun vawlei he aa pehtlaimi thilri tlawmte le a ritmi kuatnak uknak a tuah.

Sino-US chawlehnak raldohnak a hnu bik round in kan hmuh khawhmi cu, China nih a dohmi thil hi a tthawng chin lengmang. Cucaah, a donghnak ah Sino-US sipuazi ral ah aho nih dah teinak a hmuh lai? 2018 thawk in Sino-US sipuazi zuamnak zohthan in biachahnak tuah cu a har lo.

Chawlehnak ral nih US cungah zeitluk in dah hnahnawhnak a pek?

Kum 2018 ah khan Trump cozah, cu lio US president nih China he chawlehthalnak ral an rak thawk i, Biden cozah chan ahcun a fak chinchin. Sihmanhsehlaw, kum sarih hnu ah, United States nih aa ruahchanmi a tlamtlinh lo lawng si loin, sunghnak, buainak, le a hngawng taklawng a langhter. US chawlehnak ral nih Tuluk caah rawhralnak tlawmte lawng a pek, asinain US hrimhrim nih a chuahpimi rawhralnak cu American mipi ruahchannak nakin a tam deuh, cucu a tanglei thil sining hna ah a lang.

Pakhatnak ah, American ramkhel riantuantu hna nih an ton bal lomi lungthin lei fahnak an tuar. Chawlehthalnak ral a chuah chung vialte ah Tuluk ram ramdang chawlehnak cu a dihlak in a ttha deuh, ral a tam deuh paoh ah a tthawng deuh tiah chim khawh a si. Chawlehnak ral nih ramdang kuatmi thilri cungah a hramthawk ah a chuahpimi thil ti lo ahcun, Tuluk ramdang chawlehnak fekternak phunglam nih caan tawite chung ah hmunhma a lak. RCEP, Belt and Road Initiative, le BRICS ram hna tibantuk platform le mechanism hna he riantuan ttinak le i chawnhbiaknak fehternak thawngin, Tuluk nih United States he chawlehnak a zormi ah a ummi tthencheunak kha a rannak in a remh, cun lam kip ah a tthancho, ramdang chawlehnak cu kumkhat hnu kumkhat a karh peng. Official data nih a langhter ningah cun 2024 ah hin Tuluk nih a kuatmi hi 25 trillion yuan a phan lai i, a trade surplus hi 1 trillion US dollars a lonh cang lai, cucu China nih a kuatmi thil ah a tam bik lawng si loin vawleicung chawlehnak ah a tam bik a si. Hi chawlehnak ral ah hin, khatlei ah, American pawl nih Tuluk ramdang chawlehnak ah an dirhmun cu rang tukin a zor thluahmah ti an hmuh. Khatlei ah, Tuluk nih ramleng chawlehnak a thangchomi hmuh tikah, American ramkhel riantuantu hna cu an khuaruah a har, an tonmi lungthin lei lungretheihnak le tukforhnak cu a um bal lomi a si.

Pahnihnak ah, USA ah inflation rate an hnuh i tthumh a har caah American mipi caah harnak fakpi a chuahpi. Trump le amah changtu Biden nih China cungah an rak tuahmi chawlehthalnak ral cu US ram ah industry thlennak a um lo caah a si. Tuluk thilri aiawh khawhnak ding caah Mexico, India, Vietnam le ram dangdang hna i thilchuak le serchuahnak kha United States nih fakpi in a bawmh ko nain, hi ram hna i thilchuaknak riantuannak ah a hrampi thilri hna cu Tuluk thilri sernak ah aa hngatmi an si. A ngaingai ti ahcun, India, Vietnam le Mexico ah ramdang thilri luhternak thlennak caah United States ruahchannak cu a palh ngaingai. US nih chawlehnak ral a thawkmi nih hin Tuluk ram industry chain cu tampi a hnursuan lo. Cu he aa ralchanh in, United States nih Tuluk thilri cung ah direct le indirect in a chiahmi ngunkhuai hna cu a tlangpi in American mipi sin ah a kal i, United States ah thil man a kai tuknak a ruang bik pakhat ah a cang. Trump cozah nih China he chawlehnak ral a thawh hnu in, a hlei in COVID-19 zawtnak a chuah hnu in, US thil man a kai ning hi a kai thluahmah, zeizong vialte a man a fak chin lengmang. US cozah nih a sang tukmi ngunkhuai tibantuk a hlei in khamnak lam a lak ko nain, thil man kai ning nih uk khawhnak tinhmi a phan bal lo. American mipi nih biatak tein an phunzai, US cozah cung ah a phunphun in sual an phawtmi le ningcang loin an tuahmi cu a dong kho lo. Hi result hi US cozah nih an rak i ruahchan lo.

Pathumnak ah, US industry chain a derthawmnak cu a hung lang i, thilri sernak industry i a tlamtlin lonak zong a der chin lengmang. US cozah nih chawlehnak ral a thawhnak aa tinhmi pakhat cu thil sernak lei kha US ah hnuh tthan i, US thilchuaknak industry kha a fek tthan khawhnak ding caah a si. Sihmanhsehlaw, a kalhmi thil a cang. United States nih chawlehnak ral a thawk hnu kum sarih dengmang a rauh hnu ah a phichuak zoh tikah, thilri sernak lei lawng si loin, United States i a hramthawk riantuannak zong a rawk. American company pawl nih an rak sermi a ttha ngaimi vawleicung riantuannak tthencheunak phunglam cu a rawk. Supplier dang kawl cu caan a lak i a hramthawk supply chain bantuk in a tthatnak le a man a fawinak kha a chuahpi kho lo. Cun, chawlehthalnak ral nih a chuahpimi lunghrinhnak nih American company tampi kha tangka chiahnak le karhternak tibantuk biakhiahnak tuah ah a hruhter hna, cu nih cun caan saupi chung a fekmi chawlehnak tthanchonak kha a hnorsuan. Tahchunhnak ah, American company tampi nih thilri, thilri, tbk. Tuluk cu electronic thilri tampi a chuahtu ram a si. Chawlehnak ral nih aa pehtlaimi American company hna caah a fekmi thilri hmuh a harter, man a karhter i thilchuah tthanchonak a hrawh. Tahchunhnak ah, Apple cu thilri tlawmternak a tong. Chawlehnak ral nih hin US ramchung thilchuak company pawl luhternak a kham, cu nih cun chawlehnak ral lio ah US thilchuak riantuannak a tlaunak kha a langhter chin.

Palinak ah, US nih China he biaruahnak ah a ngeihmi thilri vialte a sungh dih i, a cawlcangh lonak a karh chin lengmang. China nih 2001 ah WTO a luh hnu in, US nih Sino-US chawlehnak ah aa tluk lonak tiah an timi kha China cungah phihkhamnak tuah awkah a hman tawn, China cu hmun tampi ah remdaihnak le thlennak tuah dingin a forh, cu hna cu RMB man karhternak halnak le phaisa harnak in luatnak ding caah China bawmh dingin China hmanh halnak tibantuk an si. Nain, hlan lio ahcun US phihkharnak cu aw thangpi in a rak um nain hmual a rak ngei lo, cun phihkhamnak taktak cu a rak tlawm, US nih China sinin a hmuhmi thathnemnak cu a tam tuk. Sihmanhsehlaw, 2018 ah khan Trump cozah nih US cozah theipi hnah kha a thleh dih i, China cungah a hlan ah a um bal lomi chawlehthalnak fakpi in hneknak a tuah, chawlehthalnak in China industry thanchonak kham aa zuam. Chawlehnak ral a dih hnu ah Trump cozah le a changtu Biden cozah zong nih Tuluk cungah technology ral le phaisa lei ral an rak thawk ve i, vawleicung ramkip ah Tuluk technology company pawl cu an rak dawi hna i an rak kham hna. Atu tiang ahcun, US nih Tuluk dohnak ah a hmanmi khamnak strategy cu a hmaan lomi a si tiah chim khawh a si, cun a ttha lomi thil a si. Chawlehnak chip a tang ti lo. A donghnak ahcun, US nih Tuluk cungah a tuah khawhmi tukdohnak le fahnak tuah khawhmi cu mipi ruahnak thangchiat le khuachia ah ser lawng a si, asinain cu hna cu Tuluk visa-free policy nih pakhat hnu pakhat in a tawlrel. Atu cu, kum sarih leng chawlehthalnak ral, thiamnak ral, phaisa lei ral, le mipi ruahnak ral a chuah hnu ah, US cozah nih Tuluk he an i ton tikah a hlankan in a cawlcangmi in a cawlcang lomi ah aa thlen cang ti kha ruahlopi in a hmuh.

Technology ral nih US cungah zeitluk in dah hnahnawhnak a pek?

Kum 2018 ah khan US cozah nih China cungah chawlehnak ral a thawh hnu ah a rannak in technology ral a thawh colh i a hawile pawl he hmunkhat ah an i fonh i vawleicung pumpi ah China technology company pawl an kham hna. United States nih Tuluk cung ah a rak thawkmi technology ral cu kum 6 leng a rau cang i, a karh chin lengmang ko nain, Tuluk ram fimthiamnak lei thanchonak a rang ning cu a dai lo, a rang chin lengmang. Cu he aa ralchanh in, United States pumpak thiamnak tthanchonak cu fakpi in a hnorsuan.

Pakhatnak ah, United States nih thiamnak lei ah a tthatnak a derter. US nih China cung ah a tuahmi blockade measures ruangah ram hnih hna cu science le technology lei in pehtlaihnak an tuah kho ti lo. Khatlei ah, Tuluk cozah le chawlehthalnak hna i thilthar sernak le chawlehthalnak caah thilthar sernak a chuahter, cun Tuluk ram thiamnak lei thilthar sernak ah a lamkip in hlawhtlinnak nganpi a chuahpi. Khatlei ah, Tuluk ram fimthiamnak lei ah a rang tuk in a thangchomi ruangah US cu a lung a dong. A luancia kum 20 lio ah khan, US nih Tuluk nakin thiamnak lei ah tthatnak vialte a rak ngei, asinain nihin ahcun, Tuluk nih thiamnak lei thilthar sernak lei ah US cu rang tukin a tei khawh i a lonh khawh cang. Nihin ah, a sangmi rian tlawmpal ti lo ahcun, United States nih a ṭhatnak kha a kilven rih, cun a dang thil vialte cu Tuluk thiamnak nih a pehtlaih dih. A rang tukmi tlanglawng, tilawng sernak, electric mei, new energy vehicles tibantuk ah US cu China he tahchunh khawh a si lo lawng si loin, vawleicung ah US nih aa porhlawt bikmi vanlawng lei hmanh ah China nih a lonh cang. United States nih a hruai pengmi chip lei ah, a sangmi chip tlawmpal nih tthatnak an ngeih rihmi ti lo ahcun, a dang a niam deuhmi le a niam deuhmi chip industry le market pawl cu Tuluk nih a uk dih hna. Kum hra chung robot uico a sertu Boston Dynamics hmanh cu Tuluk Yushu Technology nih a lonh colh. Tuluk le US cu artificial intelligence lei ah tug-of-war an tuah, asinain DeepSeek a chuah tikah, thil sining cu Tuluk caah a ttha chin lengmang.

Pahnihnak ah, USA ah scientific le technological thiamnak a tlau chin lengmang. Kan theih cio bantuk in, USA a rumnak cu a luan ciami kum 100 chungah vawleicung pumpi ah thiamnak a ngeimi hna i an i cawhnak hmun ah a cang caah a si. Vawleicung hmunkip in thiamnak a ngeimi hna cu United States ah an i ṭhial i American science le technology ṭhanchonak ah bawmhnak nganpi an pek. Cu hna lakah, Tuluk siangngakchia, Tuluk-American scientist, le Tuluk-American thiamnak lei hlathlaitu hna nih a tha bik in an tuah i American science le technology ralkap ah a hruaitu an si. Sihmanhsehlaw, naite kum hna ah, United States ram chung ramkhel i dohnak a zual chin, zatlang nun cu fakpi in aa ṭhen, cun miphun thleidannak a zual chin. A bik in, Tuluk hnulei sining a ngeimi hna, Tuluk siangngakchia, Tuluk le Tuluk-American hlathlaitu hna telh in, USA ah thleidannak an karh chin lengmang. Cun, Tuluk le US karlak ah scientific le technological i chawnhbiaknak lam kha phih khawhnak ding caah, American ramkhel riantuantu hna nih Tuluk ram ah American fimthiamnak kuatnak lawng si loin, Tuluk le US karlak ah thiamnak i thlennak zong an kham. US cozah nih Tuluk siangngakchia, Tuluk le Tuluk-American scientist le engineer pawl zong Tuluk hnulei sining a ngeimi hna kha a bik in a hrem hna i a hrem hna, an rian sang deuhnak lam kha a phih hna lawng si loin US cozah le chawlehthalnak ah rian biapi tlaih khawhnak nawl a kham hna, cun US ah an cawnnak le riantuannak zong a kham hna. Science le engineering major cheukhat nih Tuluk hnulei sining a ngeimi siangngakchia hna kha cawnnak nawl an pe hna lo, cun a biapimi scientific hlathlainak le thiamnak lei rian le zung tampi cu Tuluk siangngakchia le Tuluk le Tuluk-American hna caah on an si lo. Tuluk siangngakchia le Chinese le Chinese-American hna cu USA ah an cawnnak, an riantuannak le an nunnak ah an buai chin lengmang. Naite kum hna ah, Tuluk siangngakchia le Tuluk le Tuluk-American scientist le technical hna nih US chuahtak in vawleicung hmunkip ah kal an i thim. Cu hna lakah, scientist cheukhat nih an nu ram caah riantuan ding in Tuluk ram ah kir than ding in an i thim. Tahchunhnak ah, Shanghai Advanced Micro-Semiconductor Equipment Co., Ltd. i chairman le president a simi Professor Yin Zhiyao nih 2004 ah chawlehnak thawk dingin Tuluk ram ah a kir tthanmi nih a luan ciami kum 40 chungah, United States nih a tlawmbik ramkip ah a tthangchomi semiconductor thilri phun 10 a ser cang, cu chung ah 70% cu 80% tiang a ser tiah a ti. Tuluk siangngakchia nih an tuahmi a si, cun hi thiamnak a ngeimi hna lak ah 80% in 90% tiang cu Tuluk ram ah an kir i rian phunphun ah rian biapi an ttuan. Chiandeih dihlak zohchunh awk, Chairman Yin Zhiyao nih a langhtermi tahchunhnak nih hin United States ah thiamnak tlaunak dirhmun kha a langhter. US ram Stanford University data ning ahcun, 2010 le 2021 karlak ah US a chuahtakmi Tuluk scientist hna hi 900 in 2,621 tiang an karh thluahmah. US media nih hlathlainak an tuahmi ah Tuluk scientist 1,300 leng lakah 61% nih US chuahtak an duh rih. Data nih a langhter ningah cun US hi vawleicung ah top scientist tam bik a ngeih rih ko nain, a zat cu a zual chin lengmang i, China nih a ngeihmi vawleicung top scientist pawl nih US cu an tluk thluahmah cang.

Pathumnak, US technology industry cu US cozah nih fakpi in a kham. US nih China cungah technology ral a thawh hlan ah China le US karlak ah chip lei ah rian tthencheunak cu a fiang ngai, cucu US nih chip thilri suaisam le serchuahnak rian a ttuan i, China nih US chip industry caah vawleicung ah a ngan bikmi consumer market a pek. Sihmanhsehlaw, US nih Tuluk dohnak ah a rak thawkmi thiamnak ral nih hi phunglam cu a hrawh. Tuluk ram chip industry thanchonak kham khawhnak ding caah, US nih vampang sangpi he tual hmete sak le Tuluk ram ah chip man sang kuat lo ding tibantuk thil a tuah. Hi thil tuahmi nih hin Tuluk cu chip lei ah fakpi in riantuan, mah le mah i hngatchan, le mah tein i cawmken lawng si loin, Tuluk ram i a nganmi mipi zuarnak hmun le US chip industry cu a tthen dih hna, US chip company pawl cu Tuluk ram i mipi nih an hmanmi market cungah an lung a fah ti lo cu zeihmanh an ngei lo. US chip company pawl nih Tuluk fimthiamnak nakin a sang deuhmi chip an ngeih ko zongah, Tuluk market ah a cawtu tlamtling an ngeih lo caah, USA chip ttha tiah an timi hna cu an hlawknak a tlau i thilthuam lawng ah an cang kho. United States nih Tuluk cungah thiamnak lei ral a thawh hnu in, Tuluk ram fimthiamnak riantuannak, chip industry nih a aiawhmi nih fakpi in tukforhnak a tuar lo lawng si loin, a tthawng chin lengmang. Tuluk nih amah tein a sermi chips pawl cu a tlawmbik, a sang le a niam telh in a tlawmbik, a sang le a niam telh in, ramchung chawlehnak nih a herhmi a tlinh lawng si loin kum fatin ramdang kuatmi zong a karh ngaingai. 2024 ah Tuluk nih chip a kuatmi hi yuan trillion khat leng a si i, vawleicung pumpi khuaruahhar in a tuah hna. Cu he aa ralchanh in, United States ah chip industry le chip sertu cheukhat hna hlawknak cu a tla ngaingai, sunghnak nganpi a tong, cun thanchonak thazaang a ngei lo. Data nih a langhter ning ahcun, United States ah minthang chip company pakhat a simi Intel nih 2023 ah kum khat ah US$54.228 billion a hmuh, kum khat hnu kum khat ah 14.00% in a zor, cun US$1.689 billion a hmuh, kum khat hnu kum khat ah 78.92% in a zor. 2024 kum hnihnak ah, Intel nih a hmuhmi tangka cu US$12.833 billion a si, kum khat hnu kum khat ah 0.90% in a zor; a sunghnak dihlak cu US$1.610 billion a si, 2023 caan khat chung i a hlawknak US$1.5 billion he aa dang tuk. 2024 kum thumnak ah, Intel hmuhmi tangka cu US$13.284 billion a si, kum khat hnu kum khat ah 6.17% in a zor; a sunghnak dihlak cu US$16.639 billion a si, kum khat hnu kum khat ah 5702.36% in a zor. Tahchunhnak dang ah, Qualcomm, United States ah chip sertu company dang pakhat nih, 2023 hramthawk ah US nih chip kuatnak khamnak a kauhter caah Tuluk market a sungh, cun Tuluk cu a tangka hmuhnak 60% nak tam a chuahtertu a si. Qualcomm nih 2023 kum hnihnak ah a hmuhmi hlawknak cu kum khat hnu kum khat ah 52% in a tla, naite kum hna ah tuanbia ah a niam bik a si. Intel le Qualcomm cu hi bantuk an si, cun Nvidia le AMD zong cu bantuk an si. Atu lio US chip industry dihlak i a hmete an si. US cozah nih a thawkmi thiamnak ral nih Tuluk market a sunghter hna, cu nih cun an hlawknak hrampi le tthanchonak lei ah an thazaang a sunghter hna. United States nih Tuluk dohnak ah a thawkmi thiamnak ral nih Tuluk caah rawhralnak a tlawmter, asinain American fimthiamnak company pawl cungah a chuahpimi fahnak cu mit lawng in hmuh khawh a si.

Phaisa lei ral nih US cungah zeitluk in dah hnahnawhnak a pek?

Tuluk dohnak ah United States i khamnak strategy ah, phaisa lei ral thawh cu tukdohnak hriamnam ttha lo ngai a si. US nih Tuluk cungah phaisa lei ral a thawh, Tuluk inn le lo puah, RMB tlawmter, le Tuluk stock market hrem a timh, cucaah Tuluk thilri pawl lak pah in Tuluk sipuazi thanchonak kham ding timi tinhmi tlinter a timh.

RMB capital account onnak cu Tuluk cozah nih a ukmi tlawmpal in a kal caah, cun Tuluk cozah nih a fekmi phaisa lei firewall a ser caah, Tuluk phaisa lei market cu luh khawh a si lo tiah chim khawh a si. Hi thil sining he pehtlai in, US nih Tuluk cungah phaisa lei in a tukmi a tthatnak cu a tlawm tuk, cun lam tampi hmanh ah US nih aa ruahchanmi he aa ralchanh dih. United States cu a ke ah aa kah tiah chim khawh a si.

Tuluk ram ah inn le lo zuarnak a thangcho lio caan ah, mipi nih an hmuh mi cu, United States nih a ukmi ramkip phaisa lei zung tiah auhmi hna hmangin Tuluk inn le lo company hna i ramdang bonds a ngeihmi kha a karhter peng, Tuluk inn le lo company hna caah khur cawh le leiba hlennak ser aa zuam. Sihmanhsehlaw, Tuluk cozah nih ramchung inn le lo zuarnak kong kha a rak chimchung cang i inn le lo zuarnak a karh bik caan ah a ttha lomi phunglam ningcang tampi a rak lak cang. Cu hna lakah, ramchung inn le lo company ngan cheukhat cu leiba le lam dangdang in ramdang ah mitcaw bantukin karhternak nawl an ngei lo, cucaah ramdang leiba ruangah Tuluk inn le lo zuarnak market a rawk khomi kha an hrial. Tahchunhnak ah, Tuluk stock market tawiternak caah, khatlei ah, United States nih Tuluk concept stocks cung ah a herh lomi hlathlainak a hman i, United States ah aa telmi Tuluk company pawl kha hremnak caah a ttha lomi report a chuah, cucaah A-share market cu a hnuh. Khatlei kam in, United States nih, United States nih a ukmi ramkip rating agency cheukhat hmangin, Tuluk sipuazi, Tuluk company le stock market cungah a ttha lomi a dik lomi report a chuah, ramkip investor pawl kha Tuluk stock market chuahtak dingin hlen an timh hna. Sihmanhsehlaw, vawleicung ah a ummi Tuluk sipuazi a ttha tukmi nih A-share market tawiter dingin US timhtuahnak cu a hrawh. Cu lio caan te ah cun, A-share market cu a ngan tuk i tangka chiahtu tampi a ngei. Cu pin ah, US rammi Sima Zhao nih aa tinhmi cu mi vialte nih kan theih dihmi a si. Cucaah, US nih A-share market short an timhmi cu a hlawh a tling lo. Tuluk ram A-share market cu amah tein a kalning le a kalning ning tein ningcang tein le amah tein a kal peng rih.

Tuluk he phaisa lei ral a thawk tikah US nih a duh bikmi cu RMB tangka thlennak man kha a tthawngmi dollar hmangin hrem a si, cuticun Tuluk phaisa kha a lak khawh lai i Tuluk thilri kha a lak khawh lai. United States nih cun interest rate a kaiter chung le dollar tide a ser chung paoh cu China telh in vawleicung ramkip in capital cu US ah a luhter khawh lai tiah a zumh. Cucaah, March 2022 thawk in, United States nih ngunkhuai karhternak thar a thawk. A hmasa bik ngunkhuai tlawmternak nih RMB man a zorter ko nain, Tuluk tangka luhchuahnak ah zeihmanh hnahnawhnak a pe lo. Cu ruangah, Federal Reserve nih fakpi in ngunkhuai a kaiter, cu nih cun United States cu kum hnih chung 6% hrawng ngunkhuai a ngeihter, Federal Reserve nih ngunkhuai a kaitermi tuanbia ah a sang bik a ser. Federal Reserve nih a fakmi ngunkhuai a kaitermi le a tthawngmi dollar ruangah RMB tangka man a tlaknak cu 17% a lonh ko nain, United States nih a rak i ruahchan lomi cu, a dang ramkip tangka he tahchunh ahcun, RMB tangka man cu a fek bikmi hruaitu a si rih. US caah a hlei in lungdonghnak a chuahtertu cu Tuluk chawva cu US ah a luang lo lawng si loin vawleicung pumpi tangka a luhter hna. Nai kum hna ah khan, Tuluk cu ramdang chawva luhternak a lak bikmi ram pakhat a si. Tuluk ram market nganpi, a fekmi ramkhel dirhmun, tthanchonak rang, thilti khawhnak nganpi, le a tthancho chin lengmangmi le a tthancho chin lengmangmi chawlehnak pawngkam nih Tuluk ram cu ramkip chawva caah a ttha chin lengmang. Hi thil sining he pehtlai in, Tuluk nih ngunkhuai man karhternak ah US hnu a zulh lo lawng si loin, ngunkhuai tlawmternak cu US he aa ralchanh in a lak. Tuluk ram chawlehnak (economic cycle), Tuluk tangka hmannak (monetary policy) le Tuluk tangka lutchuak (capital flows) hna hi US nih interest rate faktuk in a kaitermi le dollar policy a fekmi nih a hnursuan kho lo.

Nihin ah, a fekmi dollar cu a hmun kho ti lo. 2024 ah, United States nih duh lo buin ngunkhuai tlawmternak kehlan a lak, cu nih cun United States cu buaibainak ah a chiah. United States nih interest rate tthumh a ngol i interest rate a sangmi a pehzulh peng ahcun, interest rate a ritmi nih American company pawl le US cozah caah tuar a harter hna lai. US cozah hi tahchunhnak ah lak hmanh. Tulio US cozah leiba hi 35 trillion US Dollar tluk a si. Tulio interest rate level ahcun US cozah nih kumkhat ah leiba interest caah US dollar 2 trillion tiang a hman a hau, nain US cozah nih kum khat chung tangka hmuhmi cu US dollar 4 trillion lawng a si. A tam tukmi ngunkhuai dihmi cu US cozah le American company pawl caah tuar khawh lomi thilrit a si cang caah ngunkhuai tlawmter cu Federal Reserve nih bawmtu a si lomi thil a si lai. Nain, Fed nih interest rate a tthumh peng ko ahcun, a fekmi dollar cu a dirhmun a tlau lai i, International capital cu US ram in tamtuk in a chuak lai i, US sipuazi a thi a chuak lai. Dollar bubble a puak tik ah, dollar uknak cu a kir tthan kho ti lai lo, cun US nih dollar tide sernak in vawlei lak aa zuammi cu tuah a har lai.

USA nih Tuluk cung ah phaisa lei ral a thawkmi nih US cungah a nganmi le a hlatpi tiang a phanmi chiatnak a chuahpi tiah chim khawh a si, cun US sipuazi a tlak tikah US cungah a chiatnak cu a lang chin lengmang lai.