Yaba yintoni imiphumo yemfazwe yezoqoqosho yase-USA nxamnye neChina?

(Ishicilelwe kwakhona kwingxelo esemthethweni ye-Oriental Finance Magazine, nguYan Ansheng, usekela-sihlalo we-Hong Kong Journal Media Association.)

Ukususela ngo-2025, imfazwe yorhwebo phakathi kwe-Sino-US iye yanda ngakumbi, kwaye umdlalo kwiinkalo zeerhafu, ubuchwepheshe, kunye neekhonkco zemizi-mveliso ubonakalise umkhwa wokulwa ngeendlela ezininzi. La macala mabini aqalise iingxabano eziqatha kwiindawo ezibalulekileyo ezifana nee-semiconductors, izithuthi ezintsha zamandla, kunye nezolimo. Ngomhla wesi-2 ku-Epreli 2025, urhulumente wase-US wabhengeza ukuba uza kunyanzelisa "irhafu efanayo" kwiimpahla zaseTshayina ezithunyelwa e-United States, ngexabiso lerhafu lama-34%. Xa zidityaniswe nerhafu yama-20% ukusukela ngo-2018, izinga lerhafu elipheleleyo lifikelele kuma-54%. I-China ayilunganga kangako. Ngomhla wesi-4 ku-Epreli, i-China yazisa ngokukhawuleza umgaqo-nkqubo werhafu efanayo "ngama-34% ukuya kuma-34%", inyanzelisa irhafu yama-34% kuzo zonke iimpahla ezingeniswayo ezivela e-United States, ezibandakanya iimveliso zezolimo, amandla, iimoto kunye nezinye iindawo. Kwangaxeshanye, i-China ifake amaziko ali-16 ase-US kuluhlu lolawulo lokuthumela ngaphandle, ithintela ukuthunyelwa kwezinto ezisetyenziswa kabini kuzo; kwaye yabandakanya iinkampani ezili-11 kuluhlu lwemibutho engathembekanga, ithintela ukuba zingabandakanyeki kwimisebenzi yokungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle neTshayina. Ukongeza, iTshayina imise iziqinisekiso zokuthumela ngaphandle zeenkampani ezi-6 zase-US zeemveliso zezolimo eTshayina, kwaye iqalise ulawulo lokuthumela ngaphandle kwizinto ezinxulumene nomhlaba onqabileyo ophakathi nonzima.

Ukususela kumjikelo wamva nje wemfazwe yorhwebo phakathi kwe-Sino-US, siyabona ukuba amanyathelo okulwa ne-China aya esomelela ngakumbi nangakumbi. Ngoko ke, ngubani oza kuphumelela imfazwe yoqoqosho phakathi kwe-Sino-US ekugqibeleni? Akunzima ukufikelela kwisigqibo ngokuphonononga ukhuphiswano loqoqosho phakathi kwe-Sino-US ukusukela ngo-2018.

Ingakanani impembelelo enayo imfazwe yorhwebo kwiMelika?

Ngowama-2018, ulawulo lukaTrump, owayengumongameli wase-US ngelo xesha, lwaqalisa imfazwe yorhwebo nxamnye neTshayina, eyaba nzima ngakumbi ngexesha lolawulo lukaBiden. Nangona kunjalo, emva kweminyaka esixhenxe, iMelika ayiphumelelanga nje ekufezekiseni iinjongo zayo ezilindelweyo, kodwa ilahlekelwe kakhulu, inengxaki, kwaye yatyhila iimpundu zayo ezingenanto. Imfazwe yorhwebo yase-US inomonakalo omncinci eTshayina, kodwa umonakalo eMelika ngokwawo udlule kakhulu kulindelo lwabantu baseMelika, nto leyo ebonakala ngokukodwa kwezi nkalo zilandelayo.

Okokuqala, abezopolitiko baseMelika baye babandezeleka kakhulu ngokwengqondo. Kuyo yonke imfazwe yorhwebo, urhwebo lwangaphandle lwaseTshayina luye lwaphucuka ngokubanzi, kwaye kunokuthiwa okukhona imfazwe iqhubeka, kokukhona iqina. Ngaphandle kwempembelelo yokuqala yemfazwe yorhwebo kwiimpahla ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, umgaqo-nkqubo wokuzinzisa urhwebo lwangaphandle lwaseTshayina udlale indima kwixesha elifutshane kakhulu. Ngokuqinisa intsebenziswano kunye nokutshintshiselana ngamaqonga kunye neendlela ezifana ne-RCEP, iBelt and Road Initiative, kunye namazwe e-BRICS, iTshayina ikhawuleze yalungisa umsantsa ekuncipheni korhwebo ne-United States, kwaye ibiqhubeka ikhula yonke indlela, kunye norhwebo lwangaphandle luqhubeka lukhula unyaka nonyaka. Idatha esemthethweni ibonisa ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-China kuya kufikelela kwi-25 trillion yuan ngo-2024, kwaye intsalela yorhwebo lwayo iya kudlula i-1 trillion yeedola zaseMelika, engeyiyo kuphela enkulu kwiimpahla ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe zase-China, kodwa ikwayeyona inkulu kwiimpahla ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwihlabathi liphela. Kule mfazwe yorhwebo, kwelinye icala, amaMerika abona isikhundla sawo kwisabelo sorhwebo lwangaphandle lwase-China sincipha ngokukhawuleza. Kwelinye icala, ukubona ukuba urhwebo lwangaphandle lwaseTshayina lukhula ngokukhawuleza, abezopolitiko baseMelika bayadideka, kwaye ixhala kunye nokuphazamiseka kwengqondo abaye bakufumana akukaze kwenzeke ngaphambili.

Okwesibini, izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso eMelika liye lamiswa kwaye kunzima ukulihlisa, nto leyo ebangele umonakalo omkhulu kubantu baseMelika. Imfazwe yorhwebo eyaqalwa nguTrump kunye nomlandeli wakhe uBiden nxamnye neTshayina yaqaliswa kwimeko yokunqongophala kokutshintshwa kwemizi-mveliso eMelika. Nangona iMelika ixhase kakhulu imveliso kunye nokuveliswa kweMexico, iIndiya, iVietnam kunye namanye amazwe ukuze kuthathelwe indawo iimveliso zaseTshayina, izinto eziphambili kushishino lokuvelisa kula mazwe zixhomekeke kakhulu ekunikezelweni kwekhonkco lemizi-mveliso laseTshayina. Enyanisweni, ithemba leMelika lokutshintshwa kwempahla evela kwamanye amazwe eIndiya, eVietnam naseMexico liye laphazama kakhulu. Ikhonkco lemizi-mveliso laseTshayina alichaphazelekanga kakhulu yimfazwe yorhwebo eyaqalwa yiMelika. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, iirhafu ezibekwe yiMelika ngokuthe ngqo nangokungathanga ngqo kwimpahla evela kwamanye amazwe aseTshayina ngokusisiseko zidluliselwa kubathengi baseMelika, kwaye ziye zaba sesinye sezizathu eziphambili zokunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu eMelika. Ukusukela oko ulawulo lukaTrump lwaqalisa imfazwe yorhwebo nxamnye neTshayina, ngakumbi ukusukela oko kwaqhambuka ubhubhane we-COVID-19, izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso eMelika liye landa ngokuthe chu, kwaye yonke into iye yabiza kakhulu. Nangona urhulumente wase-US ethathe amanyathelo aqatha okuthintela okufana nenzala ephezulu, izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso alikaze lifikelele kwinqanaba elimiselweyo lokulawula. Abantu baseMelika bakhalaza kabuhlungu, kwaye izityholo ezahlukeneyo kunye nokuxhatshazwa kurhulumente wase-US azinasiphelo. Esi siphumo sasingalindelekanga ngurhulumente wase-US.

Okwesithathu, ubuthathaka becandelo lemizi-mveliso laseMelika buye babonakala, kwaye ukusilela kwecandelo lemizi-mveliso kuye kwaba buthathaka nangakumbi. Enye yeenjongo zikarhulumente wase-US zokuqalisa imfazwe yorhwebo yayikukutsala imveliso ibuyele e-United States nokwenza ishishini lemizi-mveliso laseMelika libe namandla kwakhona. Nangona kunjalo, kwenzeke okwahlukileyo. Ukujonga kwiziphumo zeminyaka ephantse ibe sixhenxe ukusukela oko i-United States yaqalisa imfazwe yorhwebo, ayiphelelanga nje ekubeni ishishini lemizi-mveliso lingabuyanga e-United States, kodwa necandelo lemizi-mveliso lokuqala lase-United States nalo liye laphazamiseka. Inkqubo yokwahlulahlula icandelo lemizi-mveliso yehlabathi esebenzayo eyakhiwa ziinkampani zaseMelika iye yaphazamiseka. Ukufumana ababoneleli abahlukileyo kuthatha ixesha kwaye akunakufikelela kumgangatho kunye nokusebenza kakuhle kwecandelo lokuqala lokubonelela. Ngaphezu koko, ukungaqiniseki okubangelwe yimfazwe yorhwebo kukwenze iinkampani ezininzi zaseMelika zathandabuza ukwenza izigqibo ezinje ngotyalo-mali kunye nokwandiswa, okuchaphazela uphuhliso oluzinzileyo lwexesha elide lwecandelo lemizi-mveliso. Umzekelo, iinkampani ezininzi zaseMelika zixhomekeke kakhulu ekungenisweni kwemveliso evela eTshayina kwizinto eziluhlaza, iinxalenye, njl. Umzekelo, imboni ye-elektroniki. I-China ngumvelisi oyintloko wezinto ezininzi ze-elektroniki. Imfazwe yorhwebo yenza kube nzima kwiinkampani zaseMelika ezinxulumeneyo ukufumana unikezelo oluzinzileyo, oko kunyusa iindleko kwaye kuphazamise inkqubela phambili yemveliso. Umzekelo, i-Apple ijongene nokunqongophala konikezelo lwezinto eziyinxalenye. Imfazwe yorhwebo ithintele ukungeniswa kweenkampani zemveliso zasekhaya eMelika, nto leyo egxininise ngakumbi ukungabikho kweshishini lemveliso laseMelika kwimeko yemfazwe yorhwebo.

Okwesine, i-United States ilahlekelwe zizo zonke iindlela zayo zokuxoxisana kwingxoxo ne-China kwaye iye yaba yinto engapheliyo. Ukusukela oko i-China yajoyina i-WTO ngo-2001, i-United States ibisoloko isebenzisa oko kuthiwa kukungalingani kurhwebo lwe-Sino-US ukusebenzisa izohlwayo nxamnye ne-China, inyanzela i-China ukuba ivumelane kwaye yenze izigqibo kwiindawo ezininzi, ezifana nokufuna uxabiso lwe-RMB kwaye ide icele i-China ukuba incede i-United States ukuba isuse ingxaki yezemali. Nangona kunjalo, ngaphambili, izohlwayo zase-US zazinkulu kodwa zingasebenzi, kwaye izohlwayo zokwenyani zazilinganiselwe, kwaye izibonelelo ezafunyanwa yi-United States kwi-China zazinkulu. Nangona kunjalo, ngo-2018, ulawulo lukaTrump lwasusa ngokupheleleyo igqabi lorhulumente wase-US kwaye lwathatha amanyathelo oxinzelelo olukhulu kakhulu kurhwebo nxamnye ne-China, luzama ukunciphisa uphuhliso loshishino lwase-China ngorhwebo. Emva kwemfazwe yorhwebo, ulawulo lukaTrump kunye nomlandeli walo, ulawulo lukaBiden, nabo baqalise imfazwe yobuchwepheshe kunye nemfazwe yemali nxamnye ne-China, kwaye balandela kwaye bathintela iinkampani zobuchwepheshe zase-China kwihlabathi liphela. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, icebo lokuthintela elamkelwe yi-United States nxamnye ne-China linokuthiwa alinantlonelo, kwaye amakhadi e-trump adlalwe. Akukho ndlela yokuxoxisana eseleyo. Ekugqibeleni, amanyathelo okuhlasela nokwenzakalisa i-United States enokuthi iwathathe nxamnye neTshayina kukungcolisa izimvo zoluntu kunye nokuzenza idemoni, kodwa asombululwa nganye nganye ngumgaqo-nkqubo waseTshayina ongenazo ii-visa. Ngoku, emva kweminyaka engaphezu kwesixhenxe yeemfazwe zorhwebo, iimfazwe zobuchwepheshe, iimfazwe zemali, kunye neemfazwe zoluvo loluntu, urhulumente wase-US ngequbuliso ufumanise ukuba uye wasuka ekubeni ngumntu osebenzayo waya ekubeni ngumntu ongenzi nto xa ejongene neTshayina.

Ingakanani impembelelo enayo imfazwe yetekhnoloji kwiMelika?

Ngowama-2018, emva kokuba urhulumente wase-US eqalise imfazwe yorhwebo nxamnye neTshayina, ngoko nangoko waqalisa imfazwe yobuchwepheshe waza wadibana namaqabane akhe ukuthintela iinkampani zobuchwepheshe baseTshayina kwihlabathi liphela. Imfazwe yobuchwepheshe eyaqaliswa yi-United States nxamnye neTshayina ithathe iminyaka engaphezu kwemithandathu, kwaye ibisoloko isanda, kodwa isantya sophuhliso lobuchwepheshe baseTshayina asizange siyeke, kodwa siye sanda ngokukhawuleza. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, uphuhliso lobuchwepheshe base-United States luye lwachaphazeleka kakhulu.

Okokuqala, inzuzo yezobuchwepheshe ye-United States iye yabuthathaka. Ngenxa yamanyathelo okuthintela athathwe yi-United States nxamnye ne-China, la mazwe mabini awakwazi ukunxibelelana ngesayensi netekhnoloji. Kwelinye icala, ivuselele amandla okuvelisa izinto ezintsha kunye noshishino kurhulumente waseTshayina kunye namashishini, kwaye yenze inkqubela phambili enkulu kubuchwepheshe be-China kuzo zonke iinkalo. Kwelinye icala, i-United States ilahlekile xa ijongene nenkqubela phambili ye-teknoloji ekhawulezayo ye-China. Kwiminyaka engama-20 eyadlulayo, i-United States yayineengenelo ezininzi zetekhnoloji ngaphezu kwe-China, kodwa namhlanje, i-China ifikelele ekubambeni ngokukhawuleza kwaye idlule ne-United States kwiindawo ezininzi zobuchule betekhnoloji. Namhlanje, ngaphandle kwamacandelo ambalwa angaqhelekanga, i-United States isagcina iingenelo zayo, kwaye phantse zonke ezinye iinkalo zibotshelelwe yitekhnoloji yaseTshayina. Ayipheleli nje ekubeni i-United States ingakwazi ukuthelekiswa ne-China kwiindawo ezifana noololiwe abakhawulezayo, ukwakha iinqanawa, umbane, kunye nezithuthi zamandla amatsha, kodwa kwane-aerospace, eyona iqhayisayo kwi-United States kwihlabathi liphela, iye yadlulwa yi-China. Kwicandelo leetshiphu apho i-United States ibisoloko ikhokela khona, ngaphandle kweetshiphu ezimbalwa ezikumgangatho ophezulu ezisenazo iingenelo, amanye amashishini kunye neemarike zeetshiphu eziphakathi nezisezantsi phantse zilawulwa yiTshayina. KwaneBoston Dynamics, ebisenza iirobhothi zezinja kangangeminyaka emininzi, idlule ngoko nangoko yiYushu Technology yaseTshayina. ITshayina kunye ne-United States zibandakanyeka kwidabi lokutsalana kwicandelo lobukrelekrele bokwenziwa, kodwa ngokuvela kweDeepSeek, imeko iyaguquka kwicala eliya lithandeka ngakumbi kwiTshayina.

Okwesibini, ukulahleka kweetalente zesayensi nezobuchwepheshe eMelika kuya kucaca ngakumbi. Njengoko sonke sisazi, ukuchuma kwe-United States kungenxa yokuba i-United States ibe yindawo exubeneyo yeetalente kwihlabathi liphela kwiminyaka eli-100 edlulileyo. Iitalente ezivela kwihlabathi liphela ziye zafudukela e-United States kwaye zenze igalelo elikhulu kuphuhliso lwesayensi neteknoloji yaseMelika. Phakathi kwabo, abafundi baseTshayina, izazinzulu zaseTshayina-Amerika, kunye nabaphandi bezobugcisa baseTshayina-Amerika benze okona kulungileyo kwaye baphambili kumkhosi wesayensi neteknoloji yaseMelika. Nangona kunjalo, kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ukulwa kwezopolitiko e-United States kuye kwanda, uluntu luye lwaqhekeka kakhulu, kwaye iingxabano zobuhlanga ziye zanda. Ngokukodwa, abantu abanemvelaphi yaseTshayina, kuquka abafundi baseTshayina, abaphandi baseTshayina-Amerika, baye bacalulwa ngakumbi e-United States. Ngaphezu koko, ukuze kunqunyulwe iindlela zokutshintshiselana ngesayensi neteknoloji phakathi kwe-China ne-United States, abezopolitiko baseMelika abazange bathintele kuphela ukuthunyelwa kweteknoloji yaseMelika e-China, kodwa bathintele nokutshintshiselana ngeetalente phakathi kwe-China ne-United States. Urhulumente wase-US ukwacinezele kwaye watshutshisa abafundi baseTshayina, izazinzulu zaseTshayina nezaseMelika zaseTshayina kunye neenjineli ezinemvelaphi yaseTshayina, engagcini nje ngokuvala iindlela zabo zokunyuselwa kunye nokubathintela ekubeni nezikhundla ezibalulekileyo kurhulumente wase-US kunye namashishini, kodwa ukwathintela nokufunda kwabo kunye nomsebenzi eMelika. Ezinye izifundo zesayensi kunye nobunjineli ziyabathintela ngokucacileyo abafundi abanemvelaphi yaseTshayina ekufundeni, kwaye uphando oluninzi olubalulekileyo lwesayensi kunye nezikhundla zobugcisa kunye namaziko azivulekanga kubafundi baseTshayina kunye naseMelika yaseTshayina naseTshayina. Abafundi baseTshayina kunye naseMelika yaseTshayina kunye naseMelika baseTshayina baya bexhalaba ngakumbi kwizifundo zabo, emsebenzini kunye nobomi babo eMelika. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, abafundi abaninzi baseTshayina kunye noososayensi baseTshayina naseMelika baseTshayina kunye nabasebenzi bobuchwephesha bakhethe ukushiya iMelika baye kuzo zonke iindawo zehlabathi. Phakathi kwabo, abanye oososayensi bakhethe ukubuyela eTshayina ukuze bakhonze ilizwe labo. Umzekelo, uNjingalwazi uYin Zhiyao, usihlalo kunye nomongameli weShanghai Advanced Micro-Semiconductor Equipment Co., Ltd., owabuyela eTshayina ngo-2004 ukuze aqalise ishishini, wakha wathi kwiminyaka engama-40 edlulileyo, iMelika iphuhlise ubuncinane iintlobo ezili-10 zezixhobo ze-semiconductor eziphucukileyo kwihlabathi liphela, ezingama-70% ukuya kuma-80% zazo zaphuhliswa ngabafundi baseTshayina, kwaye ezingama-80% ukuya kuma-90% zezi talente zibuyele eTshayina kwaye zadlala indima ebalulekileyo kwimimandla eyahlukeneyo. Ukubona nje ingwe yonke, umzekelo ocatshulwe nguSihlalo uYin Zhiyao ubonisa nje imeko yokulahlekelwa zitalente eMelika. Ngokwedatha evela kwiYunivesithi yaseStanford eMelika, inani lezazinzulu zaseTshayina ezishiya iMelika liye landa ngokuthe chu ukusuka kuma-900 ukuya kuma-2,621 phakathi kowama-2010 nowama-2021. Uphando olwenziwe ngamajelo eendaba ase-US lubonisa ukuba phakathi kwezazinzulu zaseTshayina ezingaphezu kwe-1,300, ezingama-61% zazo zisafuna ukushiya iMelika. Idatha ibonisa ukuba nangona i-United States isenenani elikhulu lezazinzulu eziphambili emhlabeni, inani layo liya lisiba libi ngakumbi nangakumbi, kwaye inani lezazinzulu eziphambili kwihlabathi eliphethwe yi-China liyafikelela kwi-United States.

Okwesithathu, ishishini letekhnoloji laseMelika lithintelwe kakhulu ngurhulumente wase-US. Ngaphambi kokuba i-US iqalise imfazwe yetekhnoloji nxamnye neTshayina, ukwahlulwahlulwa kwabasebenzi phakathi kweTshayina ne-US kwicandelo leetshiphu kwakucacile, oko kukuthi, i-US yayinoxanduva lokuyila nokuvelisa iimveliso zeetshiphu, kwaye iTshayina yabonelela ngemarike yabathengi enkulu kwihlabathi kushishino lweetshiphu zaseMelika. Nangona kunjalo, imfazwe yetekhnoloji eyaqaliswa yi-US nxamnye neTshayina yaphula le ndlela. Ukuze kuthintelwe uphuhliso lweshishini leetshiphu zaseTshayina, i-US yamkela amanyathelo afana nokwakha intendelezo encinci eneendonga eziphakamileyo kunye nokuthintela ukuthunyelwa kweetshiphu eziphezulu eTshayina. Le ntshukumo ayinyanzelanga nje kuphela iTshayina ukuba isebenze nzima, izimele, kwaye yaneliseke kwicandelo leetshiphu, kodwa yahlukanisa ngokupheleleyo imarike enkulu yabathengi baseTshayina kushishino lweetshiphu zaseMelika, ishiya iinkampani zeetshiphu zaseMelika zingenanto ngaphandle kokuncwina kwimarike yabathengi baseTshayina. Nokuba iinkampani zeetshiphu zaseMelika zineetshiphu eziphambili eziphambi kweteknoloji yaseTshayina, ngenxa yokunqongophala kwabathengi abaneleyo kwimarike yaseTshayina, ezo zibizwa ngokuba ziitshiphu eziphambili zase-United States zilahlekelwe yinzuzo yazo kwaye zinokuba yimihombiso kuphela. Ukusukela oko i-United States yaqalisa imfazwe yetekhnoloji nxamnye neTshayina, ishishini letekhnoloji laseTshayina, elimelwe lishishini leetshiphusi, alizange nje lingabi nangxaki ingako, kodwa liye laqina ngakumbi. Iitshiphusi ezizivelisele zona eTshayina kuzo zonke iinqanaba, kuquka eziphakathi, eziphezulu nezisezantsi, azizange zihlangabezane kakhulu neemfuno zemarike yasekhaya, kodwa zibone nokwanda okukhulu kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngonyaka. Ngo-2024, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweetshiphusi eTshayina kudlule i-trillion enye ye-yuan, nto leyo eyamangaza ihlabathi. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, inzuzo yeshishini leetshiphusi kunye nenani labavelisi beetshiphusi eMelika yehle kakhulu, yalahlekelwa kakhulu, kwaye yaphelelwa ngamandla ophuhliso. Idatha ibonisa ukuba i-Intel, inkampani eyaziwayo yeetshiphusi eMelika, yayinengeniso yonyaka ye-US $54.228 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2023, ukwehla konyaka nge-14.00%, kunye nenzuzo epheleleyo ye-US $1.689 yeebhiliyoni, ukwehla konyaka nge-78.92%. Kwikota yesibini ka-2024, ingeniso ye-Intel yayiyi-US $12.833 yeebhiliyoni, ukwehla konyaka nge-0.90%; ilahleko yayo epheleleyo yayiyi-US $1.610 yeebhiliyoni, ngokuchaseneyo nenzuzo yayo ye-US $1.5 yeebhiliyoni kwixesha elifanayo lika-2023. Kwikota yesithathu ka-2024, ingeniso ye-Intel yayiyi-US $13.284 yeebhiliyoni, ukwehla konyaka nge-6.17%; ilahleko yayo epheleleyo yayiyi-US $16.639 yeebhiliyoni, ukwehla konyaka nge-5702.36%. Umzekelo, i-Qualcomm, enye inkampani evelisa iitshiphusi e-United States, ngokusisiseko ilahlekelwe yimarike yaseTshayina ekuqaleni kuka-2023 ngenxa yokwanda kwe-United States kwemiqathango yokuthumela iitshiphusi ngaphandle, kwaye i-China ngumthombo wengeniso yayo engaphezulu kwe-60%. Inzuzo epheleleyo ye-Qualcomm kwikota yesibini ka-2023 yehle ngama-52% unyaka nonyaka, ibeka inqanaba eliphantsi kwimbali kwiminyaka yakutshanje. I-Intel kunye neQualcomm zinjalo, kwaye iNvidia kunye ne-AMD azikho ngaphandle. Ziyinxalenye encinci yeshishini lonke leetshiphusi zaseMelika okwangoku. Imfazwe yetekhnoloji eqaliswe ngurhulumente wase-US ibenze balahlekelwa yimarike yaseTshayina, ngaloo ndlela belahlekelwa ngumthombo wabo wenzuzo kunye nenkuthazo yophuhliso olongezelelekileyo. Imfazwe yetekhnoloji eqaliswe yi-United States nxamnye neTshayina inomonakalo omncinci eTshayina, kodwa ukwenzakala okubangelwe ziinkampani zetekhnoloji zaseMelika kubonakala emehlweni.

Ingakanani impembelelo enayo imfazwe yezemali kwiMelika?

Kwicebo le-United States lokuyithintela iTshayina, ukuqalisa imfazwe yezemali sisixhobo esibi kakhulu sokuhlasela. I-United States iceba ukuqalisa imfazwe yezemali nxamnye neTshayina, ukuqhushumba izindlu zaseTshayina, ukunciphisa i-RMB, kunye nokucinezela imakethi yesitokhwe saseTshayina, ukuze kufezekiswe injongo yokunciphisa uphuhliso loqoqosho lwaseTshayina ngelixa iqokelela impahla yaseTshayina.

Ekubeni inkqubo yokuvulwa kweakhawunti ye-RMB capital ibisoloko ilawulwa ngurhulumente waseTshayina, kwaye urhulumente waseTshayina wakhe i-firewall eqinileyo yezemali, imarike yezemali yaseTshayina kunokuthiwa ayinakunqongophala. Kwimeko enjalo, ukusebenza kakuhle kohlaselo lwezemali lwe-United States kwiTshayina kuncinci kakhulu, kwaye ngeendlela ezininzi kuchasene ngokupheleleyo noko i-United States yayikulindele. I-United States kunokuthiwa izidubule enyaweni.

Ngexesha lokukhula kwemarike yezindlu eTshayina, abantu babona ukuba iMelika iyaqhubeka nokwandisa ukubamba kwayo iibhondi zaphesheya kweelwandle zeenkampani zezindlu zaseTshayina ngokusebenzisa amaziko emali aphesheya awayewalawula, ezama ukumba imingxunya nokudala imigibe yamatyala kwiinkampani zezindlu zaseTshayina. Nangona kunjalo, urhulumente waseTshayina wayesele exele kwangaphambili imarike yezindlu zasekhaya kwaye wathatha uthotho lwamanyathelo olawulo oluchasene nomjikelo kwincopho yokukhula kwemarike yezindlu. Phakathi kwazo, ezinye iinkampani ezinkulu zezindlu zasekhaya zazithintelwe ekwandiseni phesheya ngokungaboniyo ngamatyala nangezinye iindlela, ngaloo ndlela ziphepha ukuwa okunokwenzeka kwemarike yezindlu yaseTshayina ngenxa yemigibe yamatyala aphesheya kweelwandle. Umzekelo, ukuze kuncitshiswe imarike yesitokhwe yaseTshayina, kwelinye icala, iMelika yasebenzisa uphando olungafanelekanga kwisitokhwe sengcamango yaseTshayina kwaye yakhupha iingxelo ezingalunganga zokucinezela iinkampani zaseTshayina ezidweliswe eMelika, ngaloo ndlela irhuqa imarike yesabelo se-A. Kwelinye icala, iMelika, ngokusebenzisa ezinye iiarhente zokulinganisa zamazwe ngamazwe ezilawulwa yiMelika, yakhupha uthotho lweengxelo ezimbi ezingezizo ezilungileyo kuqoqosho lwaseTshayina, kwiinkampani zaseTshayina nakwimarike yesitokhwe, izama ukukhohlisa abatyali-mali bamazwe ngamazwe ukuba bashiye imarike yesitokhwe yaseTshayina. Nangona kunjalo, ukusebenza okugqwesileyo koqoqosho lwaseTshayina, olulodwa emhlabeni, kuye kwaphula icebo lase-US lokufinyeza imarike yesabelo se-A. Kwangaxeshanye, imarike yesabelo se-A inkulu kwaye inabatyali-mali abaninzi. Ukongeza, iinjongo zikaSima Zhao wase-US zaziwa ngumntu wonke. Ngenxa yoko, inzame yase-US yokufinyeza imarike yesabelo se-A ayizange iphumelele. Imarike yesabelo se-A yaseTshayina isasebenza ngendlela ehlelekileyo nezimeleyo ngokwesigqi sayo kunye nendlela yayo.

Eyona ngcinga iphambili ye-United States ekuqaliseni imfazwe yezemali nxamnye ne-China kukuthintela izinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB ngedola enamandla, ukuze ikwazi ukufunxa imali yase-China kwaye ivune izinto zase-China. I-United States ikholelwa ukuba logama nje inyusa amazinga enzala kwaye idala umsinga wedola, iya kukwazi ukwenza imali evela kwihlabathi liphela, kuquka ne-China, ingena e-United States. Ke ngoko, ukususela ngoMatshi 2022, i-United States iqalise umjikelo omtsha wokunyuka kwamazinga enzala. Nangona ukunyuka kokuqala kwenqanaba lenzala kubangele ukwehla kwexabiso le-RMB, akuzange kube nampembelelo kangako ekuhambeni kwemali-mboleko yase-China. Ngenxa yoko, i-Federal Reserve yathatha ukunyuka kwamazinga enzala obundlobongela, okuvumela i-United States ukuba igcine izinga lenzala eliphantse libe yi-6% kangangeminyaka emibini, okwenza ukuba kubekho ukuphakama okutsha kwimbali yokunyuka kwamazinga enzala kwe-Federal Reserve. Nangona ukwehla kwexabiso le-RMB exchange rate kwakudlule i-17% phantsi kwempembelelo yokunyuka kwenzala okunobundlobongela kwe-Federal Reserve kunye nedola enamandla, into eyayingalindelwanga yi-United States kukuba, xa kuthelekiswa nezinye iimali zamazwe ngamazwe, izinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB liseyinkokeli ezinzileyo. Okudanisayo kakhulu kwi-United States kukuba inkunzi yaseTshayina ayiphelelanga nje ekungeneni e-United States, kodwa itsale imali yehlabathi ukuba ingene. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, i-China ibe lelinye lamazwe atsala utyalo-mali olukhulu lwangaphandle. Imarike enkulu yase-China, imeko yezopolitiko ezinzileyo, uphuhliso olukhawulezayo, amandla amakhulu, kunye nemeko yeshishini ephucukileyo nephucukileyo yenze i-China yaba nomtsalane ngakumbi kwinkunzi yamazwe ngamazwe. Ngokuchasene nale mvelaphi, i-China ayizange ilandele i-United States ekunyuseni amazinga enzala, kodwa endaweni yoko yathatha ukunciphisa inzala kwicala elahlukileyo le-United States. Umjikelo wezoqoqosho wase-China, umgaqo-nkqubo wemali wase-China, kunye nokuhamba kwemali yase-China akuchaphazelekanga kukunyuka okukhulu kwenzala yase-United States kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo enamandla yedola.

Namhlanje, idola enamandla ayisakwazi ukugcinwa. Ngowama-2024, i-United States ithathe inyathelo lokunciphisa amazinga enzala ngokungathandiyo, nto leyo ebeka i-United States kwingxaki. Ukuba i-United States iyeka ukunciphisa amazinga enzala kwaye iqhubeke nokugcina amazinga enzala aphezulu, umthwalo omkhulu wenzala uya kwenza kube nzima kwiinkampani zaseMelika nakurhulumente wase-US ukuba ziwuthwale. Thatha urhulumente wase-US njengomzekelo. Ityala likarhulumente wase-US langoku liphezulu njengeedola zaseMelika ezingama-35 ezigidigidi. Kwinqanaba lenzala langoku, urhulumente wase-US kufuneka achithe ukuya kuthi ga kwi-2 trillion yeedola zaseMelika kwinzala yamatyala minyaka le, kodwa ingeniso yemali yonyaka karhulumente wase-US yi-4 trillion yeedola zaseMelika kuphela. Iindleko ezinkulu zenzala sele zingumthwalo onganyamezelekiyo kurhulumente wase-US nakwiinkampani zaseMelika, ngoko ke ukunciphisa amazinga enzala kuya kuba linyathelo elingenakunceda le-Federal Reserve. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba i-Fed iyaqhubeka nokunciphisa amazinga enzala, idola enamandla iya kulahlekelwa yindawo yayo, kwaye imali yamazwe ngamazwe iya kuphuma e-United States ngamanani amakhulu, nto leyo ebangela ukuba uqoqosho lwase-US luwohloke. Xa iqamza ledola liqhuma, ulawulo lwedola lusenokungaphindi lubuyele esiqhelweni, kwaye imizamo ye-United States yokuvuna ihlabathi ngokudala isantya sedola iya kuba nzima ukuyenza.

Kungathiwa imfazwe yezemali eyaqalwa yi-United States nxamnye ne-China inempembelelo embi enkulu nefikelela kude kwi-United States, kwaye impembelelo embi kwi-United States iya kubonakala ngakumbi njengoko uqoqosho lwaseMelika luwohloka.