Contingency Plan: Trump ye 100% tarifu bonya laseli kɛ Sinuwa jamana kan, o ye “ɲɛnamaya ni saya waati” ye dancɛ tigɛlenw ka ɛntɛrinɛti jago la wa?

(Nin barokun bɔra WeChat foroba jatebɔsɛbɛn kɔnɔ “Sorftime跨境资讯”, aw ni ce ka tugu walima ka aw tɔgɔ sɛbɛn)

Jagokɛlaw ka diɲɛ kɔnɔ, jatew dɔrɔn de ye diɲɛ bɛɛ ka kan ye. Tarifu 100% tɛ "gɛlɛya" jira, nka a bɛ kɛ "zero clearance" ye.

I. Tiɲɛ fɔli: "Musow ka bɔnɔgɔla" min tɛ se ka tɛmɛ

Ameriki jamanakuntigi Trump y’a jira juma tɛmɛnen na ko k’a daminɛ nowanburukalo tile fɔlɔ la, Ameriki bɛna tarifu kura 100% da fɛnw bɛɛ kan minnu bɛ na ka bɔ Sinuwa jamana na, k’a fɔ ko nin tarifu hakɛ in “ka bon kosɛbɛ ni tarifu hakɛ bɛɛ ye min bɛ sara sisan Sinuwa jamana fɛ.”.

An k’a fɔ k’a jɛya ko jatebɔ ye juguya ye. Ka kɛɲɛ ni kunnafoni labanw ye minnu bɔra Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) fɛ ka se sɛtanburukalo tile 25 san 2025, Ameriki ka tarifu hakɛ danmadɔ min bɛ Siniwaw ka fɛnw kan, o wulila ka se 57,6% ma. N’an ye tarifu kura 100% kumakanw fara o kan, fɛn dilannen dɔ musaka sigicogo bɛna bin o yɔrɔnin bɛɛ.

[Kɔlɔsili: Nin ye jatebɔ ye min bɛ mara kosɛbɛ kosɛbɛ. A bɛ fɔ a ma ko "conservateur" bawo an ka modɛli bɛ tɔnɔw dɔgɔyali nɔ dɔrɔn de ladege, ka cakɛda dɔ min bɛ tiɲɛni kɛ kosɛbɛ, o jateminɛn: feereli binkanni.

Tiɲɛ na, ka kɛɲɛ ni musaka camanba ye min bɛ se dɔrɔmɛ 20 ma, feerekɛlaw bɛ wajibiya ka don gɛlɛya dɔ kɔnɔ:

N’i ​​y’a sugandi ko i tɛna sɔngɔw kɔrɔta (k’u mara dɔrɔmɛ 65 na): I ka jago bɛna don bilen na o yɔrɔnin bɛɛ; ni i bɛ feereli kɛ ka caya, i ka bɔnɛ bɛ caya ka taa a fɛ.

N’i ​​y’a sugandi ka sɔngɔw kɔrɔta walasa ka musakaw dafa (ka se dɔrɔmɛ 66,52 ma a dɔgɔyalenba la): O bonyaba in, n’i y’a jateminɛ ko sannikɛlaw ka sanni fanga dɔgɔyara kaban (bɔyɔrɔ: CBO ka kunnafoni), a bɛ se ka fɔ ko o bɛna kɛ sababu ye ka feereli dɔgɔya kosɛbɛ.

Sugandili mana kɛ cogo o cogo, a laban ye jago laban ye. Kuncɛli jɛlen don : tarifu bɛɛ lajɛlen 157,6% kɔnɔ, feerekɛlaw ka tɔnɔ bɛɛ bɛna ban o yɔrɔnin bɛɛ, wa u bɛna bin o yɔrɔnin bɛɛ la bilenman na.]

Nin tɛ hakilinata ye. Ka kɛɲɛ ni Kongresi ka baarakɛnafolo biro (CBO) ka jateminɛ labanw ye, minnu bɔra san 2025 awirilikalo tile 22, tarifu jiginni bɛna "fɛnw sɔngɔ wuli k'u ɲɛsin mɔgɔw ma ani ka fɛnw sɔngɔ wuli", o cogo la, "a bɛna dɔ bɔ Ameriki musakabɔlaw ni jagokɛlaw ka sanni seko la" ani ka "waati dɔɔnin degun wuli ka taa sanfɛ" lase nafolosɔrɔbaliya ma (Sɔrɔyɔrɔ: CBO Publication 61697).

CBO ka dantigɛli fɔlɔ bɛ basigi sabatilenba di an ka sɛgɛsɛgɛli nataw ma : 100% impositi hakɛ dantɛmɛnen kɔnɔ, musakabɔlaw ka sanni fanga, n’a jirala foroba la kaban ko a bɛ ka dɔgɔya, farati bɛ a la ka wuli. O kɔrɔ ye ko musakaw jiginni degun tɛna tɛmɛn feerekɛlaw kan pewu, wa a ka c’a la, a laban na, a bɛna segin ka bin feerekɛlaw kan (o kɔrɔ ye ko dancɛ tigɛlenw ka ɛntɛrinɛti feerekɛlaw).
Kuncɛli jɛlen don : feerekɛlaw fanba fɛ, tɔnɔ sɔrɔta bɛ 30% duguma, o kɔrɔ ye ko tɔnɔ bɛna jigin o yɔrɔnin bɛɛ la ka se zeru ma, walima yɛrɛ ka kɛ ko jugu ye.

Filanan. Aw ka namara dabila: Mun na nin ye gɛlɛya "structural" ye?

Gɛlɛya bɛɛ la, mɔgɔ minnu bɛ nɔrɔ jigiya la, olu bɛ yen tuma bɛɛ. Nka nin sen in na, an ka kan ka namara bɛɛ bila, bawo a bɛ maga baarakɛcogo jɔnjɔn fila la.
A fɔlɔ, nin ye degunba sɛgɛsɛgɛli ye min bɛ kɛ faratiw kan "sɛnɛfɛnw dilancogo kelen" la.

Ka kɛɲɛ ni Ameriki jago minisiriso ka kunnafoniw ye, san 2025, Sinuwa bɛna to Ameriki ka fɛnw dondonni sɔrɔyɔrɔba ye feerekɛlaw ka kulu jɔnjɔnw na i n’a fɔ minɛnw, ɛntɛrinɛti, ani tulonkɛfɛnw, a bɛ tɛmɛ 40% kan (Sɔrɔ: Ameriki jamana jatebɔ baarada). O jigiyaba in kɔrɔ ye ko tarifu politiki dantɛmɛnen o politiki dantɛmɛnen bɛna kɛ faratiw ye sigida la feerekɛlaw ma minnu bɛ tali kɛ ɲɔgɔn na. Faratiw bɔli cakɛda la, o tɛ sugandi ye tugun, nka a ye wajibi ye walasa ka ɲɛnamaya kɛ.

Filanan, o bɛ jatebɔ laban jira ni "tɔnɔ modɛli fragile" ye.

Dancɛ tigɛlen ɛntɛrinɛti jago ye a jɔyɔrɔba ye "tɔnɔ tulon ye diɲɛ nafolo tilacogo kɔrɔ." Ni tarifuw, n’o ye fɛn ye min bɛ fɛn caman sɛmɛntiya tulon sariyaw kɔnɔ, n’u wulila ka se hakɛ tiɲɛnenw ma, tɔnɔko misali bɛɛ minnu sinsinnen bɛ « musaka dɔgɔman, hakɛ caman » misali kan, olu bɛna kɛ nafama ye o yɔrɔnin bɛɛ.

[O kɔrɔ ye ko: N’i bɛ kɛnɛma sigida makɔnɔ hali bi walasa a ka ɲɛtaa sɔrɔ, o tuma na fɛ, i bɛ min makɔnɔ, o tɛ sɔgɔmada ye, nka kiritigɛ laban don, n’o ye ka ban pewu jago sariyaw fɛ.

III. Ɲɛnamaya gafe: Ka kisi "Dugukolo jenilen" ma.
"Tarifu nukliyɛri binkanni" dugukolo jenilen kɔnɔ, baarakɛcogo kɔrɔlenw bɛɛ kɛra fɛn ye min tɛ se ka kɛ. An mago bɛ ɲɛnamaya kɛcogo fɛɛrɛw la minnu tɛ laadalako ye, hali minnu bɛ ɲɔgɔn sɔsɔ.
1. Waati kunkurunnin "Tactical Stopping of Bleeding": Baara kɛ ni kunnafoniw ye walasa ka "Ɲɛnamaya ni saya" dɔn.
Sani aw ka siran, aw ka kan ka jatebɔ tigitigiw kɛ fɔlɔ. I ka fɛɛrɛ fɔlɔ tɛ ka fɛnmarayɔrɔw tiɲɛ walima ka suguw wuli. O nɔ na, ​​i ka kan k’i ka fɛn dilannenw lajɛ ani k’a ta makɔrɔ-fɛɛrɛ la ka taa a bila fɛɛrɛ fitininw na, ka "tarifu degun sɛgɛsɛgɛli" jugu kɛ i ka jago bɛɛ kan. Fɔlɔ, fɛɛrɛbɔ siratigɛ la, i mago bɛ "risk map" la walasa k'a dɔn kɛlɛyɔrɔ minnu bɛ to ka ɲɛ. O yɔrɔ de la baarakɛminɛn minnu bɛ makɔrɔ-dakun na i n'a fɔ "Tarifu Index" bɛ na baara la. A tɛ jatebɔlan ye, nka "sɔgɔsɔgɔninjɛ faratiw jateminɛcogo" don. A b’a jira ko suguya minnu bɛ farati la kosɛbɛ tarifu sigida la sisan, ani minnu lakananen don kosɛbɛ. O b’aw dɛmɛ ka desizɔnw ta sanfɛtaw la, n’aw bɛna aw ka fɛn dilannenw suguya bonya walima u dɔgɔyali fɛɛrɛw ladilan.

Filanan, taktika siratigɛ la, i mago bɛ sɔgɔsɔgɔninjɛ la walasa ka fɛn kelen-kelen bɛɛ ka ɲɛnamaya ni a saya tigɛtigɛ. O bɛ tɔnɔ sɔrɔcogo misali dɔ de wajibiya i n'a fɔ "Sɔrɔko jatebɔlan". I bɛ se ka don ASIN kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnen dɔ kɔnɔ, o kɔfɛ, tarifu musaka modulu kɔnɔ, ka tarifu kura 100% kɛli cogoya ladege. Sistɛmu bɛ jatebɔ kɛ a yɛrɛma cogo min na tarifu kura bɛna nɔ bila i ka fɛn dilannen musaka cayalenba la, tɔnɔ sɔrɔta bɛɛ lajɛlen na, ani wari bilalen kɔsegin na (ROI), wa a bɛ "tɔnɔ ni bɔnɛ sumalen di ka kɔn tarifu jiginni ɲɛ ani a kɔfɛ.

Nin "index + calculator" faralen ɲɔgɔn kan, o bɛ se k'i dɛmɛ ka "casualty triage" dafalen kɛ : baara kɛ ni "tariff index" ye walasa k'a dɔn "kɛlɛyɔrɔ" minnu ka kan ka bɔ mɔgɔw la, o kɔfɛ, baara kɛ ni "sɔrɔ jatebɔlan" ye walasa k'a dɔn "sɔrɔdasi" minnu bɛ o zone ninnu kɔnɔ, olu bɛ se ka kisi.

Triage bannen kɔfɛ, i ka kan ka kɛ i n’a fɔ kɛlɛyɔrɔ dɔgɔtɔrɔ, ka "i tigɛ" ni latigɛ ye walasa ka mɔgɔw kisi: ka fɛnw "fagali la" ka ban, ka wari sɔrɔ, ka teliya ka restocking bɛɛ jɔ min bɛ tali kɛ o la.

2. "Hedging stratégique" cɛmancɛ waati: Ka "Front filanan" dɔ da wuli.
A ka fisa aw kana aw ka kɔnɔw bɛɛ bila Ameriki sigilan kɔnɔ min tun bɛ jeni kaban. I ka kan k’i ka fɛɛrɛbɔ sinsin teliya la ka taa suguw la minnu ma jeni kosɛbɛ, nka nin tɛ “yɔrɔ jiginni” nɔgɔman ye.
[Tiɲɛ gɛlɛn ye nin ye: sugu kura bɛɛ bɛ kɛlɛyɔrɔ kura jira ni sariyaw danfaralenw ye.
Erɔpu sugu bɛ sariya labatoli musakabaw jira i n’a fɔ PIB, EPR, ani CE seereyaw, ka fara sigida baarakɛcogo gɛlɛya gɛlɛnw kan. Sugu minnu bɛ ka bonya i n’a fɔ Azi Saheli-Kɔrɔnfɛla ani Ameriki Latin, olu bɛ komandi hakɛ danmadɔw jira, sigida sɔngɔko ɲɔgɔndanba ka bon, ani fɛnw ladonni ni wari saracogo minnu tɛ sabati.
Ni i ye fɛnw ta dɔrɔn ka bɔ Ameriki yɔrɔ la yen, a ka c’a la, o bɛna kɛ sababu ye ka fɛn dilannenw dɛsɛ, o bɛna kɛ sababu ye ka fɛn kuraw sɔrɔcogo ni wariko gɛlɛyaw lase u ma.]

Aw ka wale fɔlɔ gafe:
I ka fɛɛrɛ fɔlɔ tɛ 'sènbɔliba ye, nka a bɛ Kɛ "market viability triage" ye.
"Fɛn tigɛlen" dɔ sugandi i ka fɛn dilannenw kɔnɔ min tɔnɔ ka bon, min bonya ka dɔgɔ, ani min ka sariyaw labatoli ka nɔgɔn. A daminɛ ni sɛgɛsɛgɛli fitinin ye Alemaɲi walima Angletɛri sugu la.
Miiri nin baara in na i n'a fɔ "sɛgɛsɛgɛli marifatigiw". I ka laɲini jɔnjɔn tɛ tɔnɔ ye, nka ka nin kɛlɛyɔrɔ kura in ka gɛlɛyaw faamuya ni musaka dɔgɔman ye — fɛnw labɛncogo waatibolodacogo lakikaw, sigida feerekɛlaw ka fɛɛrɛw, segin hakɛw, ani sariya labatoli musaka dogolenw bɛɛ. Nin "kɛlɛ rapɔɔri" in dɔrɔn de la i bɛ se k'a latigɛ n'i bɛna i ka fanga kunbabaw bila sen kan.

3. "Miirili kura" min bɛ kɛ waati jan kɔnɔ: Ka bɔ "Boli" la ka taa "Dɔgɔyali" la.

Nin ye senna-tɛgɛrɛ ye min ka gɛlɛn kosɛbɛ, nka a bɛ kɛ fana min bɛ hakilijakabɔba de wajibiya. San fila tɛmɛnenw na, "ka boli mara minnu musaka ka dɔgɔ" tun bɛ iko politiki siratigɛ la. Nka, kunnafoniw minnu bɔra kɔsa in na, olu b’a jira ko fɛn dɔ jiginna min tɛ mɔgɔ hakili la.

Kearney ka san 2025 "Reshoring Index" jaabi laban b'a jira ko dɔgɔyaliba kɛra. O kunba ye ko hali ni tɔnba ɲɛmɔgɔw b’a fɛ ka fɛnw dilancogo cakɛdaw lasegin Ameriki Woroduguyanfan na, tiɲɛ gɛlɛnw i n’a fɔ baarakɛlaw musakaw ani fɛnsɔrɔko gɛlɛyaw b’u wajibiya k’u ka fɛɛrɛw jateminɛ kokura, ka segin ka taa musaka dɔgɔman maraw la Azi (Sɔrɔyɔrɔ: consulting.us).

[Tiɲɛ gɛlɛn ye nin ye: Feerekɛla misɛnninw ni feerekɛla fitininw fanba fɛ, ka fɛnw dilancogo kura jɔ ka bɔ fɛn fɔlɔ la Wiyetinamu walima Mɛkisiki, o bɛ doni ye min tɛ se ka muɲu, min bɛ waatiba de wajibiya (a dɔgɔyalenba la san kelen fo san fila), waribonba (a bɛ daminɛ miliyɔn caman na), ani a bɛ tali kɛ kɔrɔbɔli ni filiw ni ɲɛnabɔli musakaw la.

I bɛna gɛlɛya caman sɔrɔ minnu bɛ se ka mɔgɔ faga, i n’a fɔ kanko gɛlɛyaw, jogoɲumanya kɔlɔsili jugu, ani dɛmɛn yɔrɔ dafalenw. A ka c'a la, "boli" fiyentɔ bɛna saya teliya, a tɛna bange kokura.]

[Aw ka wale fɔlɔ gafe].

I ka fɛɛrɛ fɔlɔ tɛ ka izini da wuli Vietnam, nka i ka "extreme stress test" ani "deep integration" kɛ i ka Sinuwa feereli cakɛda kɔrɔ la.
O yɔrɔnin bɛɛ la, aw ka fɛɛrɛbɔ lajɛ jɛlen ni dafalen kɛ ni aw ka feerekɛla jɔnjɔnw ye. Aw ye tarifu 100% "modèle extrême" bila tabali kan, ka baro kɛ ɲininkali jɔnjɔn saba kan:
1Fariw tilatilali : Yala sɔngɔko bɛnkan kura bɛ se ka sigi senkan walasa ka tarifu musaka dɔw tila ɲɔgɔn na wa?
2Taabolo seginni : Yala fɛn dilanni walima u lajɛli dɔw bɛ se ka bila jamana sabanan na (i n’a fɔ Malasi walima Tayilandi) walasa ka "finishing" kɛ walasa ka "origin" taamasiyɛn Changer sariya siratigɛ la ani ka kɛɲɛ ni sariya ye wa?
3Nafa seginni : Yala Sinuwa jamana ka feereli cakɛda kɔgɔlen ni fɛn caman bɛ se ka wuli ka bɔ a nɔ na, ​​o bɛ se ka kɛ sababu ye ka jɛ ka "small order, quick return" fɛn caman labɛn ni dilancogo walima baarakɛcogo kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnenw ye, o cogo la, ka bɔ sɔngɔko la, fɛn minnu bɛ kɛ ka kɛɲɛ ni sariya ye wa?

Kuncɛli

Tarifu 100% sigili tɛ jago gɛlɛya ye, nka a bɛ kɛ suguyaw sɛgɛsɛgɛli ye.
A bɛ ka jagokɛyɔrɔw sɛgɛsɛgɛ ni hinɛbaliya ye, minnu bɛ kɛ dɔɔnin dɔɔnin, minnu sigicogo ka dɔgɔ, ani minnu bɛ mɔgɔ lafili, k’u bɔ sugu la pewu. Feerekɛlaw minnu bɛ se ka jatebɔ, sɔgɔsɔgɔninjɛ, jiginni, ani sɛnɛ juguman taabolo naani kɛ joona, olu dɔrɔn de bɛna kisi nin balawu in ma.
Nin tɛ kuma ye min bɛ mɔgɔ lasiran; o ye ɲɛnamaya kɛlɛ ye min daminɛna kaban. Lakanali ye baarakɛcogo jiralan jɔnjɔn kelenpe ye.